Game Analysis

Opinion – LOUISVILLE (-12 ½) over Virginia Tech

Rotation #518 – 10 am Pacific

Virginia Tech has been overwhelmed by elite teams on the road, losing at Florida State by 15 points, at North Carolina by 19 points, and at Virginia by 23 points. I can envision a similar fate for the Hokies in this game against a dominating Louisville defense that ranks #1 in compensated defensive efficiency. Virginia Tech is a good offensive team but Louisville is a better defensive team and the Hokies’ mediocre defense is going to be worse without Chris Clarke, who leads the team in steals (by a significant margin) and rebounding while also making 59% of his shots. My ratings favor Louisville by 13 points without factoring in Clarke’s absence and I think the fair line on this game should be 15 points. I’d take Louisville in a 1-Star Best Bet at -12 points or less.

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