Washington Redskins @ New York Giants Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Over (37.5) – NEW YORK GIANTS (+3) vs Washington

Eli Manning could be in trouble playing in perhaps his last game wearing a Giants uniform, as his two top receivers Evan Engram and Sherling Shepard, are both listed as questionable. To make matters worse, tackle Bobby Hart, allowing a pressure on 10.3% of pass snaps (3rd-worst in the NFL), will likely serve as a turnstile for Ryan Kerrigan as he looks to add to his 16 sacks this season (2^nd in the league). The Redskins have the worst rush defense in the league according to my metrics but I do not believe the Giants will be able to exploit the weakness with a rush offense ranked 30th. My ratings favor Washington by just 1 ½ points but I don’t like the match up here and the injury situation could be an issue for the Giants. I’ll pass on the side.

Interestingly, the total has dropped 6.5 points compared to the last matchup between these two teams on Thanksgiving. We leaned under in that game but our model projects 40 ½ points in this contest – although it would be lower if the Giants’ receivers don’t play. The model doesn’t quite see enough value in the over to make it a play but I’ll lean over (38 or less) this time around.

Team Stats
Game Log

Redskins
Giants

WAS

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.1 35.9
Succ Pass Plays 47.1% 41.1%
Sack Rate 6.7% 7.4%
Int Rate 1.8% 3.0%
Deep Pass Rate 16.6% 19.3%
Big Pass Yards 48.8% 45.6%
NYPP 6.8 6.2

Rush

Rush Plays 26.3 28.9
RB YPR 3.3 4.1
Stuff Rate 22.5% 19.3%
Succ Rush Plays 42.4% 50.0%
Big Rush Yards 30.9% 38.4%
Yards Per Rush 3.4 4.3

Game

All Snaps 62.4 64.9
Early Down Succ 48.8% 47.8%
Succ Rate 44.8% 45.0%
Big Yards Rate 45.2% 43.4%
Yards Per Play 5.3 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 28.1
Run Ratio 42.0% 44.6%
Starting Field Pos 28.6 30.1
Game Control 0.4 -0.4

Points 22.1 24.7

NYG

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.8 36.4
Succ Pass Plays 43.9% 44.8%
Sack Rate 5.9% 4.3%
Int Rate 2.2% 1.8%
Deep Pass Rate 13.7% 18.3%
Big Pass Yards 30.2% 42.7%
NYPP 5.4 7.5

Rush

Rush Plays 23.7 31.3
RB YPR 3.5 3.8
Stuff Rate 21.5% 22.8%
Succ Rush Plays 41.0% 42.8%
Big Rush Yards 33.3% 41.4%
Yards Per Rush 3.5 4.0

Game

All Snaps 64.5 67.7
Early Down Succ 47.0% 46.3%
Succ Rate 43.1% 43.5%
Big Yards Rate 31.4% 44.6%
Yards Per Play 4.8 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.7 28.6
Run Ratio 36.9% 46.7%
Starting Field Pos 26.3 30.1
Game Control -3.5 3.5

Points 15.2 25.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PHI	17 – 30 L	-5.1	38.6% / 51.2%	9.1% / 4.9%	2.5% / 2.6%	4.5 / 7.3	58.8% / 36.0%	23.5% / 28.0%	3.8 / 2.4	61 / 66	49.0% / 44.0%	44.3% / 45.5%	38.3% / 37.8%	4.3 / 5.4	4.9% / 1.5%	27.9% / 37.9%	26.1 / 31.8
2	@LA	27 – 20 W	4.5	48.3% / 39.3%	6.9% / 7.1%	0.0% / 3.8%	5.4 / 8.6	46.2% / 59.1%	17.9% / 13.6%	5.9 / 4.2	68 / 50	49.1% / 51.4%	47.1% / 48.0%	46.2% / 61.9%	5.7 / 6.7	0.0% / 2.0%	57.4% / 44.0%	34.5 / 22.4
3	OAK	27 – 10 W	11.9	61.3% / 37.1%	3.2% / 11.4%	0.0% / 6.5%	11.5 / 2.7	35.3% / 21.4%	17.6% / 21.4%	3.4 / 2.4	65 / 49	48.0% / 42.4%	47.7% / 32.7%	53.2% / 24.8%	7.3 / 2.6	3.1% / 2.0%	52.3% / 28.6%	28.7 / 31.7
4	@KC	20 – 29 L	4.3	45.8% / 47.5%	0.0% / 10.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.2 / 6.5	51.9% / 58.1%	14.8% / 19.4%	4.1 / 5.4	51 / 71	54.1% / 51.7%	49.0% / 52.1%	57.2% / 43.4%	6.5 / 6.0	2.0% / 0.0%	52.9% / 43.7%	26.8 / 21.2
6	SF	26 – 24 W	7.0	60.5% / 30.0%	2.6% / 6.0%	2.7% / 2.1%	8.6 / 5.0	38.2% / 65.0%	29.4% / 25.0%	2.8 / 4.3	72 / 70	51.8% / 41.2%	50.0% / 40.0%	43.6% / 50.4%	5.8 / 4.8	1.4% / 0.0%	47.2% / 28.6%	26.9 / 32.6
7	@PHI	24 – 34 L	-4.7	56.8% / 53.6%	9.1% / 10.7%	2.5% / 4.0%	6.1 / 8.7	47.4% / 29.4%	15.8% / 23.5%	4.0 / 3.8	63 / 62	62.5% / 39.6%	54.0% / 40.3%	46.4% / 63.4%	5.5 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	30.2% / 54.8%	27.7 / 32.5
8	DAL	19 – 33 L	-2.5	39.5% / 37.5%	9.3% / 8.3%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.5 / 5.8	40.0% / 61.5%	26.7% / 20.5%	3.3 / 4.3	58 / 63	40.9% / 57.4%	39.7% / 52.4%	50.5% / 24.1%	4.9 / 4.9	3.4% / 1.6%	25.9% / 61.9%	29.7 / 39.1
9	@SEA	17 – 14 W	2.3	40.5% / 43.5%	16.2% / 4.3%	0.0% / 4.5%	5.2 / 6.3	39.1% / 57.1%	34.8% / 14.3%	2.2 / 5.3	60 / 74	42.6% / 51.7%	40.0% / 48.6%	51.6% / 48.5%	4.1 / 5.9	1.7% / 0.0%	38.3% / 37.8%	27.8 / 30.7
10	MIN	30 – 38 L	-6.2	45.7% / 65.5%	2.2% / 0.0%	2.2% / 6.9%	6.8 / 10.5	46.4% / 51.5%	21.4% / 30.3%	2.9 / 3.2	74 / 62	49.1% / 60.9%	45.9% / 58.1%	43.0% / 52.2%	5.3 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	37.8% / 53.2%	34.1 / 34.6
11	@NO	31 – 34 L	5.7	47.1% / 57.1%	5.9% / 4.8%	0.0% / 2.5%	8.8 / 8.9	51.5% / 60.9%	12.1% / 17.4%	4.7 / 7.0	67 / 65	50.9% / 62.3%	49.3% / 58.5%	47.8% / 54.2%	6.8 / 8.2	0.0% / 0.0%	49.3% / 35.4%	23.4 / 24.3
12	NYG	20 – 10 W	0.8	35.1% / 29.0%	16.2% / 12.9%	3.2% / 3.7%	5.4 / 2.8	38.2% / 32.0%	23.5% / 20.0%	3.6 / 3.4	71 / 56	44.0% / 36.8%	36.6% / 30.4%	47.7% / 22.2%	4.6 / 3.1	0.0% / 0.0%	47.9% / 44.6%	32.4 / 21.8
13	@DAL	14 – 38 L	-8.3	46.3% / 34.8%	9.8% / 4.3%	5.4% / 0.0%	5.5 / 4.0	42.1% / 52.4%	26.3% / 16.7%	2.9 / 4.3	60 / 65	46.7% / 46.0%	45.0% / 46.2%	32.9% / 26.5%	4.7 / 4.2	3.3% / 0.0%	31.7% / 64.6%	24.5 / 36.2
14	@LAC	13 – 30 L	-15.3	37.9% / 41.7%	6.9% / 5.6%	3.7% / 2.9%	4.7 / 8.7	38.1% / 45.7%	19.0% / 11.4%	3.1 / 5.0	50 / 71	44.4% / 44.6%	38.0% / 43.7%	30.3% / 58.6%	4.0 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	42.0% / 49.3%	21.8 / 31.5
15	ARI	20 – 15 W	5.6	51.9% / 24.4%	3.7% / 11.1%	0.0% / 2.5%	6.9 / 3.2	33.3% / 61.8%	28.6% / 14.7%	1.5 / 4.1	48 / 79	54.1% / 45.6%	43.8% / 40.5%	37.9% / 44.8%	4.6 / 3.6	2.1% / 1.3%	43.8% / 43.0%	31.8 / 33.0
16	DEN	27 – 11 W	6.1	51.4% / 24.4%	0.0% / 9.8%	2.7% / 2.7%	8.1 / 4.2	29.0% / 58.6%	25.8% / 13.8%	2.9 / 5.5	68 / 70	45.1% / 41.2%	41.2% / 38.6%	52.1% / 38.8%	5.7 / 4.7	1.5% / 2.9%	45.6% / 41.4%	32.6 / 28.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DAL	3 – 19 L	-9.1	48.8% / 48.7%	7.3% / 2.6%	2.6% / 0.0%	4.8 / 6.7	23.1% / 54.8%	7.7% / 19.4%	2.8 / 4.2	54 / 70	46.2% / 50.9%	42.6% / 51.4%	27.8% / 37.0%	4.3 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	24.1% / 44.3%	16.0 / 29.4
2	DET	10 – 24 L	-7.5	37.8% / 33.3%	13.5% / 12.5%	3.1% / 0.0%	5.6 / 5.0	38.9% / 43.8%	27.8% / 34.4%	3.4 / 4.3	55 / 56	41.5% / 37.5%	38.2% / 39.3%	30.0% / 42.4%	4.9 / 4.6	0.0% / 1.8%	32.7% / 57.1%	24.3 / 37.4
3	@PHI	24 – 27 L	-4.0	59.6% / 41.2%	0.0% / 8.8%	4.3% / 0.0%	7.8 / 4.7	23.5% / 48.7%	23.5% / 23.1%	2.9 / 5.0	64 / 73	55.8% / 47.3%	50.0% / 45.2%	23.4% / 30.4%	6.5 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.4%	26.6% / 53.4%	34.6 / 21.5
4	@TB	23 – 25 L	-5.2	49.0% / 48.7%	0.0% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 8.3	35.7% / 42.3%	28.6% / 19.2%	3.3 / 4.3	77 / 65	44.1% / 56.3%	44.2% / 46.2%	27.4% / 57.3%	4.9 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	36.4% / 40.0%	27.7 / 29.9
5	LAC	22 – 27 L	2.4	34.1% / 36.4%	12.2% / 0.0%	2.8% / 2.3%	4.5 / 5.9	72.0% / 31.3%	12.0% / 21.9%	6.1 / 3.9	66 / 76	54.0% / 34.0%	48.5% / 34.2%	46.3% / 36.2%	5.1 / 5.1	1.5% / 0.0%	37.9% / 42.1%	28.2 / 29.0
6	@DEN	23 – 10 W	10.4	40.9% / 35.1%	13.6% / 7.0%	0.0% / 3.8%	5.4 / 6.4	18.8% / 44.4%	40.6% / 11.1%	4.6 / 2.6	54 / 75	27.5% / 40.0%	27.8% / 37.3%	53.4% / 47.0%	4.9 / 5.5	0.0% / 1.3%	59.3% / 24.0%	31.2 / 27.0
7	SEA	7 – 24 L	-1.0	22.5% / 50.0%	2.5% / 2.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.3 / 8.0	41.2% / 50.0%	17.6% / 21.9%	2.7 / 3.3	57 / 72	31.8% / 53.6%	28.1% / 50.0%	14.1% / 43.9%	3.1 / 5.9	1.8% / 1.4%	29.8% / 44.4%	22.8 / 33.8
9	LA	17 – 51 L	-19.5	42.5% / 54.5%	5.0% / 0.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.2 / 14.1	59.3% / 37.5%	11.1% / 40.0%	4.1 / 4.1	67 / 62	51.0% / 44.7%	49.3% / 43.5%	38.1% / 71.3%	4.8 / 7.6	3.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 64.5%	27.0 / 40.8
10	@SF	21 – 31 L	-4.9	55.0% / 60.0%	7.5% / 0.0%	0.0% / 4.0%	6.5 / 11.5	52.2% / 41.7%	21.7% / 19.4%	5.0 / 5.3	63 / 61	56.5% / 51.2%	54.0% / 49.2%	35.6% / 67.7%	5.9 / 7.8	1.6% / 1.6%	36.5% / 59.0%	26.6 / 31.9
11	KC	12 – 9 W	2.1	38.9% / 42.9%	0.0% / 2.4%	2.8% / 7.3%	5.7 / 5.5	40.0% / 51.7%	22.9% / 10.3%	3.2 / 4.6	71 / 71	45.1% / 49.2%	39.4% / 46.5%	22.0% / 41.6%	4.5 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	49.3% / 40.8%	30.2 / 21.5
12	@WAS	10 – 20 L	-0.8	29.0% / 35.1%	12.9% / 16.2%	3.7% / 3.2%	2.8 / 5.4	32.0% / 38.2%	20.0% / 23.5%	3.4 / 3.6	56 / 71	36.8% / 44.0%	30.4% / 36.6%	22.2% / 47.7%	3.1 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	44.6% / 47.9%	21.8 / 32.4
13	@OAK	17 – 24 L	-4.2	40.5% / 48.6%	8.1% / 2.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.4 / 7.6	50.0% / 43.3%	20.8% / 26.7%	2.7 / 4.0	61 / 67	46.8% / 48.9%	44.3% / 46.3%	40.8% / 41.5%	4.3 / 6.0	3.3% / 1.5%	39.3% / 44.8%	28.0 / 28.7
14	DAL	10 – 30 L	-2.1	56.5% / 50.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.3% / 0.0%	5.0 / 11.1	55.2% / 50.0%	20.7% / 17.6%	3.5 / 3.7	75 / 64	61.0% / 56.8%	56.0% / 50.0%	17.6% / 51.4%	4.4 / 7.1	0.0% / 0.0%	38.7% / 53.1%	24.5 / 25.3
15	PHI	29 – 34 L	1.6	51.7% / 43.6%	1.7% / 2.6%	1.8% / 0.0%	7.4 / 6.0	43.5% / 39.3%	21.7% / 17.9%	3.3 / 3.9	81 / 67	50.0% / 43.1%	49.4% / 41.8%	48.4% / 24.0%	6.2 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	28.4% / 41.8%	24.4 / 36.1
16	@ARI	0 – 23 L	-10.7	51.1% / 43.2%	4.3% / 5.4%	4.4% / 5.7%	5.3 / 5.8	30.0% / 25.0%	25.0% / 35.7%	2.2 / 2.7	67 / 65	57.1% / 36.7%	44.8% / 35.4%	23.5% / 29.3%	4.4 / 4.5	1.5% / 0.0%	29.9% / 43.1%	27.6 / 27.0

Washington Redskins @

New York Giants

Sun, Dec 31

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis