Game Analysis
MIAMI (+11) vs New England
Rob Gronkowski’s suspension for this game will be a blow for New England’s offense. The Patriots are 19-10-1 ATS without Gronkowski in the lineup but their offense is averaging 0.5 yards per play less in those games. My numbers have Gronkowski’s value at slightly more than a point per game but the Pats’ spread record without him suggests that perhaps the line gets over-adjusted when he’s out. Miami’s pass defense ranks 26th in my metrics and I expect Tom Brady to find other methods of moving the ball down the field and getting into the endzone.
New England’s defense has been much improved since the bye week, averaging just 4.6 yards per play allowed in the last four games, and I expect the Dolphins to play closer to their season average 4.8 yards per play (27th) than last week’s 5.7 yards per play against a depleted Broncos defense that was hit by the flu-bug last week.
My ratings favor New England by 11.8 points but the Pats are historically not as good as a big favorite (31-41 ATS in Tom Brady’s starts when favored by 9 points or more; 1-3 this season) as they in general (60.4% ATS in Brady’s career starts). I also don’t have an opinion on the total.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.3
39.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.0%
48.4%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
6.4%
-
Int Rate
1.0%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.0%
21.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.1%
34.6%
-
NYPP
7.5
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.5
24.5
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
19.9%
17.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.9%
53.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.3%
42.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
5.0
Game
-
All Snaps
68.8
64.0
-
Early Down Succ
54.6%
54.3%
-
Succ Rate
51.3%
50.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.7%
39.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.1
25.0
-
Run Ratio
42.6%
38.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.0
24.5
-
Game Control
7.4
-7.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.3
34.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.2%
46.0%
-
Sack Rate
5.8%
5.0%
-
Int Rate
3.9%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.3%
17.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.6%
44.3%
-
NYPP
5.4
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.9
28.3
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
35.8%
30.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
36.7%
36.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.2%
57.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
61.2
62.3
-
Early Down Succ
44.4%
44.9%
-
Succ Rate
41.3%
41.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
34.5%
47.5%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
29.6
-
Run Ratio
37.2%
44.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.3
28.3
-
Game Control
-5.5
5.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
KC |
27 – 42 L |
1.8 |
33.3% /
60.5% |
7.7% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
9.3 |
50.0% /
42.4% |
25.0% /
9.1% |
3.5 /
5.7 |
75 /
71 |
46.4% /
63.5% |
41.3% /
52.1% |
54.8% /
53.7% |
5.0 /
7.6 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
48.0% /
46.5% |
27.8 /
25.5 |
| 2 |
@NO |
36 – 20 W |
14.2 |
61.0% /
51.1% |
4.9% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.6 /
7.7 |
51.6% /
47.1% |
22.6% /
11.8% |
3.8 /
4.8 |
72 /
62 |
58.3% /
54.2% |
56.9% /
50.0% |
53.2% /
48.3% |
7.7 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
27.4% |
27.5 /
27.9 |
| 3 |
HOU |
36 – 33 W |
1.2 |
47.5% /
48.6% |
12.5% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
8.4 /
8.3 |
45.0% /
56.3% |
30.0% /
15.6% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
60 /
67 |
46.8% /
54.7% |
46.7% /
52.2% |
52.3% /
38.8% |
6.6 /
6.2 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
47.8% |
28.8 /
24.0 |
| 4 |
CAR |
30 – 33 L |
-1.9 |
60.4% /
61.3% |
6.3% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.1 /
9.8 |
73.7% /
51.7% |
21.1% /
20.7% |
4.2 /
4.8 |
67 /
60 |
66.7% /
54.9% |
64.2% /
56.7% |
22.0% /
48.0% |
5.6 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
28.4% /
48.3% |
26.1 /
26.7 |
| 5 |
@TB |
19 – 14 W |
4.4 |
51.2% /
48.9% |
7.0% /
4.3% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.8 |
47.8% /
55.0% |
17.4% /
20.0% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
67 |
53.7% /
55.6% |
50.0% /
50.7% |
24.6% /
37.2% |
6.1 /
6.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
29.9% |
27.7 /
27.4 |
| 6 |
@NYJ |
24 – 17 W |
-0.1 |
39.5% /
54.0% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
2.6% /
4.3% |
6.8 /
6.7 |
61.5% /
40.0% |
7.7% /
24.0% |
4.6 /
3.0 |
64 /
75 |
49.0% /
50.9% |
48.4% /
49.3% |
29.5% /
46.0% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
1.6% /
1.3% |
40.6% /
33.3% |
28.7 /
24.0 |
| 7 |
ATL |
23 – 7 W |
11.4 |
48.4% /
58.8% |
6.5% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.6 |
56.4% /
54.5% |
12.8% /
18.2% |
4.2 /
5.5 |
70 /
56 |
57.7% /
65.9% |
52.9% /
57.1% |
38.4% /
26.8% |
5.8 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.7% /
39.3% |
28.8 /
21.9 |
| 8 |
LAC |
21 – 13 W |
4.4 |
50.0% /
46.7% |
6.0% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.3 /
6.4 |
43.8% /
66.7% |
28.1% /
19.0% |
3.0 /
7.5 |
82 /
51 |
46.8% /
60.0% |
47.6% /
54.9% |
21.3% /
38.7% |
5.0 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.0% /
41.2% |
30.5 /
20.5 |
| 10 |
@DEN |
41 – 16 W |
14.7 |
65.8% /
39.4% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
7.8 /
6.7 |
55.2% /
44.8% |
13.8% /
13.8% |
3.4 /
4.1 |
67 /
62 |
67.9% /
40.0% |
61.2% /
41.9% |
32.1% /
46.2% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
43.3% /
46.8% |
37.9 /
23.7 |
| 11 |
@OAK |
33 – 8 W |
15.9 |
56.1% /
45.3% |
9.8% /
7.5% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
8.1 /
4.4 |
55.0% /
76.2% |
25.0% /
14.3% |
4.5 /
5.2 |
61 /
74 |
60.4% /
59.6% |
55.7% /
54.1% |
40.2% /
24.4% |
6.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
8.1% |
32.8% /
28.4% |
23.1 /
23.0 |
| 12 |
MIA |
35 – 17 W |
13.1 |
44.8% /
47.5% |
3.4% /
17.5% |
3.6% /
6.1% |
7.6 /
3.9 |
42.9% /
42.1% |
16.7% /
31.6% |
4.8 /
3.5 |
71 /
59 |
50.0% /
51.1% |
43.7% /
45.8% |
69.4% /
23.5% |
5.9 /
3.7 |
1.4% /
1.7% |
59.2% /
32.2% |
31.6 /
25.9 |
| 13 |
@BUF |
23 – 3 W |
9.1 |
54.5% /
18.4% |
9.1% /
10.5% |
3.3% /
2.9% |
7.4 /
2.2 |
40.5% /
69.2% |
18.9% /
11.5% |
5.2 /
7.0 |
70 /
64 |
51.9% /
41.7% |
47.1% /
39.1% |
39.1% /
44.0% |
6.2 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.9% /
40.6% |
29.3 /
23.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 2 |
@LAC |
19 – 17 W |
-2.0 |
44.4% /
62.5% |
5.6% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
8.1 |
36.4% /
28.6% |
30.3% /
50.0% |
3.4 /
3.1 |
69 /
54 |
43.4% /
58.7% |
40.6% /
53.7% |
38.9% /
28.6% |
4.9 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.8% /
25.9% |
26.4 /
24.9 |
| 3 |
@NYJ |
6 – 20 L |
-9.8 |
41.7% /
52.0% |
6.3% /
8.0% |
4.4% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
9.3 |
46.7% /
37.1% |
46.7% /
34.3% |
2.0 /
3.0 |
63 /
60 |
54.2% /
48.9% |
42.9% /
43.3% |
11.6% /
40.1% |
3.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
23.8% /
58.3% |
23.7 /
31.4 |
| 4 |
NO |
0 – 20 L |
-5.5 |
37.5% /
48.8% |
12.5% /
2.4% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
6.4 |
60.0% /
46.4% |
40.0% /
14.3% |
3.9 /
3.1 |
47 /
69 |
52.6% /
46.3% |
44.7% /
47.8% |
31.7% /
46.1% |
4.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
40.6% |
27.0 /
28.8 |
| 5 |
TEN |
16 – 10 W |
4.2 |
25.0% /
36.8% |
3.6% /
15.8% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
2.8 /
3.1 |
43.8% /
30.0% |
28.1% /
45.0% |
3.2 /
3.5 |
60 /
58 |
37.2% /
40.0% |
35.0% /
34.5% |
6.1% /
19.1% |
3.0 /
3.2 |
1.7% /
3.4% |
53.3% /
34.5% |
27.0 /
25.1 |
| 6 |
@ATL |
20 – 17 W |
-7.7 |
45.5% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
3.0% /
2.9% |
4.6 /
6.6 |
46.9% /
47.4% |
25.0% /
42.1% |
4.3 /
5.3 |
65 /
55 |
47.9% /
48.8% |
46.2% /
49.1% |
23.8% /
40.1% |
4.5 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.2% /
34.5% |
30.2 /
20.7 |
| 7 |
NYJ |
31 – 28 W |
-5.2 |
52.5% /
36.7% |
7.5% /
10.0% |
5.4% /
3.7% |
7.6 /
6.0 |
24.0% /
34.8% |
44.0% /
30.4% |
2.1 /
4.0 |
65 /
53 |
42.3% /
37.5% |
41.5% /
35.8% |
53.8% /
61.9% |
5.5 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
38.5% /
43.4% |
31.2 /
29.3 |
| 8 |
@BAL |
0 – 40 L |
-17.5 |
29.8% /
36.4% |
6.4% /
0.0% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
5.5 |
26.3% /
34.9% |
42.1% /
20.9% |
2.4 /
4.1 |
66 /
65 |
30.6% /
42.6% |
28.8% /
35.4% |
41.3% /
45.0% |
3.0 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
66.2% |
22.2 /
35.3 |
| 9 |
OAK |
24 – 27 L |
-3.2 |
58.1% /
54.8% |
2.3% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
7.2 /
9.5 |
27.8% /
23.3% |
38.9% /
23.3% |
4.8 /
2.9 |
61 /
61 |
52.1% /
39.0% |
49.2% /
39.3% |
26.8% /
59.7% |
6.5 /
6.3 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
29.5% /
49.2% |
27.1 /
28.2 |
| 10 |
@CAR |
21 – 45 L |
-12.9 |
48.6% /
60.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
7.3 |
27.8% /
52.6% |
22.2% /
18.4% |
5.6 /
7.8 |
55 /
73 |
40.0% /
54.5% |
41.8% /
56.2% |
38.9% /
57.3% |
5.7 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.7% /
52.1% |
21.9 /
30.1 |
| 11 |
TB |
20 – 30 L |
-5.1 |
46.3% /
39.5% |
2.4% /
2.6% |
7.5% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
7.1 |
15.8% /
20.8% |
57.9% /
41.7% |
4.4 /
2.2 |
60 /
62 |
34.8% /
34.7% |
36.7% /
32.3% |
61.2% /
42.4% |
7.5 /
5.2 |
3.3% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
38.7% |
25.2 /
35.9 |
| 12 |
@NE |
17 – 35 L |
-13.1 |
47.5% /
44.8% |
17.5% /
3.4% |
6.1% /
3.6% |
3.9 /
7.6 |
42.1% /
42.9% |
31.6% /
16.7% |
3.5 /
4.8 |
59 /
71 |
51.1% /
50.0% |
45.8% /
43.7% |
23.5% /
69.4% |
3.7 /
5.9 |
1.7% /
1.4% |
32.2% /
59.2% |
25.9 /
31.6 |
| 13 |
DEN |
35 – 9 W |
12.2 |
41.2% /
29.5% |
5.9% /
6.8% |
6.3% /
7.3% |
6.5 /
3.8 |
43.3% /
34.8% |
23.3% /
26.1% |
4.8 /
4.5 |
64 /
67 |
46.9% /
37.7% |
42.2% /
31.3% |
56.1% /
60.7% |
5.7 /
4.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
46.9% /
34.3% |
40.2 /
17.9 |
New England Patriots
@ 
Miami Dolphins