Game Analysis
Lean – San Francisco (+2.5/+3) over HOUSTON
Former Patriots backup quarterbacks have historically performed poorly after departing New England. My numbers show Matt Cassel played around 8 points per game worse in his first year with the Chiefs than his 11-5 season in 2008 with the Patriots. Jacoby Brissett is playing about 3.5 points per game worse with the Colts than his limited action last season in New England. Ryan Mallet never started a game for the Patriots but his career 5.1 yards per pass play certainly is not impressive. Still, having mentioned all of that, I think it is likely the 49ers will be better with Jimmy Garoppolo under center.
First, it’s worth pointing out Garoppolo was much better in his limited action with the Patriots than his counterparts as he averaged 7.4 yards per pass play with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions last season. This year with San Francisco, Garoppolo has started strong, gaining 7.2 yards per pass play, and he also has the advantage of playing for offensive mastermind Kyle Shanahan. It is also important to note the performance level Garoppolo is replacing. Garoppolo has a low bar to get over as my numbers show Brian Hoyer and C.J. Beathard cost the 49ers offense 53 points this season, which is 5.6 points per game worse than the average quarterback. Even if Garoppolo’s performance drops off he is still likely to play above the level of San Francisco’s quarterbacks to date and I’m making a tentative adjustment of positive 2.5 points to the 49ers offense. Furthermore, Garoppolo has a favorable matchup this week against a Texans defense allowing 6.9 yards per pass play, which ranks 28th in the league.
San Francisco’s secondary has also been poor, surrendering 6.8 yards per pass play (26th), but Houston’s offensive line has allowed 203 pressures this season, 35 more than the second-worst team, and I’m not sure Tom Savage will have enough time against this young and improving 49ers pass rush to throw the ball downfield. I’ll lean with San Francisco as an underdog and would get more interested if this game gets to a solid +3 rather than +3 with extra juice.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.0
34.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.2%
48.2%
-
Sack Rate
7.1%
4.9%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.9%
19.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.6%
39.2%
-
NYPP
5.6
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.5
34.0
-
RB YPR
4.0
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
26.7%
23.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.5%
41.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.5%
42.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
66.5
68.2
-
Early Down Succ
44.2%
46.6%
-
Succ Rate
41.8%
44.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.5%
40.3%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.9
29.3
-
Run Ratio
37.0%
50.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.7
29.9
-
Game Control
-6.3
6.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.5
34.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.1%
43.2%
-
Sack Rate
8.3%
6.6%
-
Int Rate
3.4%
3.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.8%
21.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.6%
42.8%
-
NYPP
6.3
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.3
26.5
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
22.4%
25.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.8%
40.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.5%
50.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
66.8
60.8
-
Early Down Succ
45.8%
45.5%
-
Succ Rate
44.2%
42.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.3%
48.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
28.6
-
Run Ratio
44.0%
43.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.0
29.3
-
Game Control
0.1
-0.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CAR |
3 – 23 L |
-12.4 |
46.2% /
45.8% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
2.9% /
4.2% |
4.3 /
7.1 |
26.7% /
39.0% |
26.7% /
14.6% |
3.4 /
2.9 |
54 /
65 |
48.7% /
42.6% |
40.7% /
41.5% |
33.6% /
29.7% |
4.0 /
4.5 |
1.9% /
1.5% |
27.8% /
63.1% |
30.1 /
33.7 |
| 2 |
@SEA |
9 – 12 L |
-2.0 |
20.7% /
33.3% |
6.9% /
7.1% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
4.3 |
52.6% /
37.2% |
21.1% /
20.9% |
8.4 /
3.1 |
48 /
85 |
38.9% /
37.5% |
33.3% /
35.3% |
49.2% /
23.7% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.6% /
50.6% |
24.5 /
23.9 |
| 3 |
LA |
39 – 41 L |
-8.5 |
46.3% /
64.3% |
9.8% /
0.0% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
10.4 |
51.5% /
51.5% |
27.3% /
30.3% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
74 /
61 |
47.2% /
57.4% |
48.6% /
57.4% |
50.8% /
55.4% |
5.7 /
6.9 |
1.4% /
3.3% |
44.6% /
54.1% |
36.1 /
36.1 |
| 4 |
@ARI |
15 – 18 L |
1.4 |
30.8% /
49.1% |
5.8% /
10.5% |
2.0% /
2.0% |
4.0 /
5.6 |
37.0% /
39.1% |
25.9% /
30.4% |
3.5 /
2.3 |
79 /
80 |
33.9% /
51.6% |
32.9% /
46.3% |
27.9% /
17.9% |
3.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.2% /
28.8% |
22.3 /
27.9 |
| 5 |
@IND |
23 – 26 L |
-3.3 |
50.0% /
44.7% |
4.2% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
7.0 /
7.6 |
31.8% /
32.4% |
31.8% /
32.4% |
3.0 /
4.4 |
70 /
75 |
46.3% /
38.2% |
44.3% /
38.7% |
37.3% /
58.1% |
5.7 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.4% /
49.3% |
17.5 /
28.8 |
| 6 |
@WAS |
24 – 26 L |
-7.0 |
30.0% /
60.5% |
6.0% /
2.6% |
2.1% /
2.7% |
5.0 /
8.6 |
65.0% /
38.2% |
25.0% /
29.4% |
4.3 /
2.8 |
70 /
72 |
41.2% /
51.8% |
40.0% /
50.0% |
50.4% /
43.6% |
4.8 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
28.6% /
47.2% |
32.6 /
26.9 |
| 7 |
DAL |
10 – 40 L |
-20.1 |
39.5% /
51.9% |
11.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
8.7 |
59.1% /
68.9% |
27.3% /
11.1% |
4.7 /
5.9 |
65 /
72 |
48.0% /
66.7% |
46.2% /
62.5% |
40.7% /
57.0% |
4.5 /
7.0 |
4.6% /
0.0% |
33.8% /
62.5% |
23.0 /
34.1 |
| 8 |
@PHI |
10 – 33 L |
-11.9 |
32.5% /
42.9% |
10.0% /
8.6% |
5.6% /
3.1% |
3.6 /
5.5 |
41.7% /
39.4% |
41.7% /
27.3% |
3.9 /
3.5 |
64 /
68 |
40.8% /
46.9% |
35.9% /
41.2% |
38.2% /
44.4% |
3.7 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
48.5% |
28.5 /
29.0 |
| 9 |
ARI |
10 – 20 L |
-7.3 |
32.1% /
40.0% |
8.9% /
0.0% |
2.0% /
3.3% |
4.8 /
6.7 |
58.8% /
34.8% |
17.6% /
13.0% |
3.7 /
3.7 |
73 /
76 |
40.7% /
38.9% |
38.4% /
36.8% |
30.7% /
45.8% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
1.4% /
1.3% |
23.3% /
60.5% |
23.5 /
34.4 |
| 10 |
NYG |
31 – 21 W |
4.9 |
60.0% /
55.0% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
4.0% /
0.0% |
11.5 /
6.5 |
41.7% /
52.2% |
19.4% /
21.7% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
61 /
63 |
51.2% /
56.5% |
49.2% /
54.0% |
67.7% /
35.6% |
7.8 /
5.9 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
59.0% /
36.5% |
31.9 /
26.6 |
| 12 |
SEA |
13 – 24 L |
-7.2 |
38.1% /
44.1% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
2.6% /
2.9% |
4.7 /
6.7 |
45.8% /
38.7% |
33.3% /
25.8% |
3.5 /
2.9 |
66 /
65 |
42.9% /
44.0% |
40.9% /
41.5% |
43.6% /
48.6% |
4.2 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
47.7% |
25.4 /
32.2 |
| 13 |
@CHI |
15 – 14 W |
-2.5 |
56.4% /
47.1% |
5.1% /
11.8% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
5.0 |
45.7% /
21.1% |
22.9% /
26.3% |
3.2 /
3.3 |
74 /
36 |
50.9% /
26.9% |
51.4% /
33.3% |
27.5% /
23.8% |
5.3 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.3% /
52.8% |
24.9 /
25.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
JAC |
7 – 30 L |
-11.9 |
34.8% /
52.4% |
21.7% /
0.0% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
2.4 /
6.0 |
60.9% /
41.5% |
17.4% /
17.1% |
4.0 /
3.8 |
69 /
62 |
44.6% /
53.3% |
43.5% /
45.2% |
12.8% /
32.6% |
2.9 /
4.5 |
4.3% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
66.1% |
26.5 /
38.2 |
| 2 |
@CIN |
13 – 9 W |
1.4 |
40.7% /
31.6% |
11.1% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.6 /
5.6 |
51.4% /
54.2% |
31.4% /
16.7% |
4.8 /
3.4 |
62 /
62 |
53.2% /
44.4% |
46.8% /
40.3% |
39.1% /
41.0% |
4.3 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
56.5% /
38.7% |
24.1 /
31.2 |
| 3 |
@NE |
33 – 36 L |
-1.2 |
48.6% /
47.5% |
5.7% /
12.5% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
8.4 |
56.3% /
45.0% |
15.6% /
30.0% |
3.9 /
3.0 |
67 /
60 |
54.7% /
46.8% |
52.2% /
46.7% |
38.8% /
52.3% |
6.2 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
47.8% /
33.3% |
24.0 /
28.8 |
| 4 |
TEN |
57 – 14 W |
20.6 |
58.3% /
40.9% |
5.6% /
9.1% |
2.9% /
20.0% |
7.6 /
5.0 |
50.0% /
35.0% |
14.3% /
15.0% |
4.1 /
4.4 |
78 /
42 |
53.8% /
43.8% |
53.8% /
38.1% |
28.5% /
52.6% |
5.7 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
2.4% |
53.8% /
47.6% |
38.0 /
21.9 |
| 5 |
KC |
34 – 42 L |
-9.9 |
46.9% /
57.9% |
9.4% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
8.5 |
60.9% /
40.0% |
13.0% /
34.3% |
6.3 /
3.6 |
55 /
73 |
56.8% /
47.4% |
52.7% /
49.3% |
64.8% /
31.6% |
7.1 /
6.2 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
41.8% /
47.9% |
27.6 /
31.2 |
| 6 |
CLE |
33 – 17 W |
16.2 |
50.0% /
31.7% |
3.3% /
9.8% |
3.4% /
8.1% |
7.2 /
2.8 |
26.5% /
63.6% |
26.5% /
13.6% |
3.6 /
6.1 |
64 /
63 |
38.8% /
49.0% |
37.5% /
42.9% |
47.5% /
39.7% |
5.3 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.1% /
34.9% |
24.9 /
28.0 |
| 8 |
@SEA |
38 – 41 L |
1.4 |
45.7% /
51.2% |
14.3% /
4.7% |
10.0% /
2.4% |
10.5 /
10.4 |
50.0% /
17.4% |
17.6% /
39.1% |
4.2 /
1.5 |
69 /
66 |
51.7% /
44.0% |
47.8% /
39.4% |
72.7% /
62.4% |
7.4 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
34.8% |
22.4 /
27.4 |
| 9 |
IND |
14 – 20 L |
-6.3 |
28.3% /
45.5% |
4.3% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
8.5 |
38.1% /
44.8% |
14.3% /
20.7% |
4.5 /
3.2 |
67 /
62 |
32.7% /
51.1% |
31.3% /
45.2% |
31.6% /
55.6% |
4.3 /
6.0 |
1.5% /
1.6% |
31.3% /
46.8% |
24.2 /
19.1 |
| 10 |
@LA |
7 – 33 L |
-9.5 |
30.8% /
41.5% |
7.7% /
7.3% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
8.3 |
34.6% /
32.1% |
26.9% /
28.6% |
3.5 /
3.8 |
65 /
69 |
34.0% /
42.6% |
32.3% /
37.7% |
46.8% /
63.9% |
4.4 /
6.5 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
40.6% |
29.4 /
31.2 |
| 11 |
ARI |
31 – 21 W |
1.8 |
54.5% /
50.0% |
3.0% /
5.6% |
3.1% /
5.9% |
6.8 /
6.8 |
47.1% /
33.3% |
20.6% /
38.9% |
3.9 /
2.7 |
67 /
54 |
50.0% /
48.8% |
50.7% /
44.4% |
49.6% /
42.5% |
5.3 /
5.4 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
50.7% /
33.3% |
22.7 /
36.3 |
| 12 |
@BAL |
16 – 23 L |
-2.0 |
38.5% /
32.4% |
5.1% /
2.9% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
4.6 |
36.0% /
36.4% |
32.0% /
30.3% |
2.6 /
4.3 |
64 /
67 |
36.0% /
38.3% |
37.5% /
34.3% |
46.9% /
48.3% |
4.7 /
4.4 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
39.1% /
49.3% |
20.9 /
34.3 |
| 13 |
@TEN |
13 – 24 L |
0.2 |
51.9% /
36.0% |
7.7% /
8.0% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
5.8 |
26.1% /
44.0% |
39.1% /
24.0% |
2.3 /
7.9 |
75 /
50 |
42.9% /
36.8% |
44.0% /
40.0% |
40.5% /
55.5% |
5.1 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
30.7% /
50.0% |
27.5 /
24.3 |
San Francisco 49ers
@ 
Houston Texans