Game Analysis
Lean – KANSAS CITY (-4) over Oakland
The look-ahead line for this game was Kansas City -6.5 and I think the 2.5-point move may be an overreaction to the last week’s scoreboard, rather than the underlying numbers. The Raiders played well holding the Giants to 4.3 yards per play while averaging 6.1 yards per play themselves but the Chiefs were even more impressive outgaining the Jets by 4.6 yards per play on the road. Kansas City lost due to extreme Redzone variance settling for field goal attempts (one missed) in their two trips inside the 20 while New York was able to find the end zone in 4 of their 5 opportunities.
The Chiefs offense broke out of their slump by throwing vertically with new play-caller Matt Nagy, which is a strategy that they had great success with early in the season before falling back into their ultra-conservative mode during their losing stretch. Kansas City employed a 76% pass rate and gained 10.3 yards per play against the Jets. Alex Smith will look to build on last week’s performance against a weak Oakland secondary surrendering 7.0 yards per pass play (29th).
Marshawn Lynch was ejected in the first meeting between these two teams but he will have a favorable matchup in the rematch if he can stay on the field this time. Lynch secured his first 100-yard rushing game of the season last week and Kansas City’s rush defense ranks 25th in my metrics as they have sorely missed Eric Berry all season. The Chiefs will be without top cornerback Marcus Peters, which could set up Michael Crabtree for a monster day returning from suspension, so the Raiders’ offense should also find success. In fact, I’d be looking to go over if not for the tendency for divisional games to go under in the second half of the season. I do lean with Kansas City though, as the Chiefs apply to a 24-1 ATS subset of an 88-33-2 ATS division home revenge situation (they lost on the final play in Oakland earlier in the season).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.9
35.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.7%
47.2%
-
Sack Rate
5.0%
5.9%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
0.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.4%
14.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.8%
43.5%
-
NYPP
6.6
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.1
27.8
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
24.5%
22.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.9%
40.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.0%
38.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
61.0
62.8
-
Early Down Succ
48.2%
45.7%
-
Succ Rate
45.3%
44.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.6%
41.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.7%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.9
27.2
-
Run Ratio
39.5%
43.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.8
27.0
-
Game Control
-1.6
1.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.0
36.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.4%
45.4%
-
Sack Rate
7.1%
4.5%
-
Int Rate
1.3%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.5%
24.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.4%
44.6%
-
NYPP
7.1
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.9
31.3
-
RB YPR
4.4
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
23.9%
21.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.2%
49.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
54.1%
46.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
59.9
68.3
-
Early Down Succ
49.1%
49.5%
-
Succ Rate
45.6%
46.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
49.4%
45.3%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
27.2
-
Run Ratio
39.2%
45.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.7
26.1
-
Game Control
0.9
-0.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@TEN |
26 – 16 W |
4.4 |
55.9% /
50.0% |
5.9% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
6.1 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
16.7% /
28.6% |
3.7 /
4.5 |
64 /
63 |
57.1% /
46.9% |
53.1% /
47.6% |
26.7% /
33.1% |
5.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.9% /
33.3% |
29.3 /
22.4 |
| 2 |
NYJ |
45 – 20 W |
11.6 |
64.3% /
44.8% |
0.0% /
13.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
5.0 |
40.7% /
61.5% |
33.3% /
19.2% |
6.7 /
4.9 |
55 /
55 |
48.8% /
53.7% |
52.7% /
52.7% |
56.1% /
43.0% |
7.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
49.1% /
47.3% |
35.7 /
27.1 |
| 3 |
@WAS |
10 – 27 L |
-11.9 |
37.1% /
61.3% |
11.4% /
3.2% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
2.7 /
11.5 |
21.4% /
35.3% |
21.4% /
17.6% |
2.4 /
3.4 |
49 /
65 |
42.4% /
48.0% |
32.7% /
47.7% |
24.8% /
53.2% |
2.6 /
7.3 |
2.0% /
3.1% |
28.6% /
52.3% |
31.7 /
28.7 |
| 4 |
@DEN |
10 – 16 L |
-6.7 |
36.8% /
33.3% |
7.9% /
13.3% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
5.2 |
33.3% /
31.4% |
46.7% /
22.9% |
1.6 /
4.2 |
53 /
65 |
44.7% /
36.4% |
35.8% /
32.3% |
52.8% /
39.5% |
4.8 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.3% /
53.8% |
24.7 /
28.8 |
| 5 |
BAL |
17 – 30 L |
-11.8 |
34.5% /
42.3% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
8.5 |
56.0% /
44.2% |
24.0% /
9.3% |
4.3 /
3.4 |
54 /
69 |
43.9% /
46.9% |
44.4% /
43.5% |
40.0% /
46.5% |
4.5 /
5.3 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
46.3% /
62.3% |
24.9 /
34.0 |
| 6 |
LAC |
16 – 17 L |
3.2 |
51.6% /
45.9% |
3.2% /
2.7% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
5.3 /
7.1 |
50.0% /
21.9% |
31.8% /
18.8% |
5.0 /
2.6 |
53 /
69 |
52.5% /
34.0% |
50.9% /
34.8% |
35.4% /
33.6% |
5.2 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
41.5% /
46.4% |
31.7 /
24.7 |
| 7 |
KC |
31 – 30 W |
-3.0 |
44.2% /
48.6% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
8.9 |
38.1% /
47.8% |
19.0% /
26.1% |
4.2 /
4.1 |
73 /
60 |
40.7% /
46.7% |
42.5% /
48.3% |
45.7% /
52.9% |
6.9 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
38.3% |
20.6 /
22.9 |
| 8 |
@BUF |
14 – 34 L |
-5.5 |
49.0% /
55.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.1% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
6.1 |
42.9% /
45.0% |
14.3% /
17.5% |
3.9 /
4.2 |
63 /
67 |
51.0% /
55.3% |
47.6% /
49.3% |
28.9% /
48.6% |
5.8 /
5.0 |
3.2% /
0.0% |
22.2% /
59.7% |
22.4 /
35.7 |
| 9 |
@MIA |
27 – 24 W |
3.2 |
54.8% /
58.1% |
3.2% /
2.3% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
9.5 /
7.2 |
23.3% /
27.8% |
23.3% /
38.9% |
2.9 /
4.8 |
61 /
61 |
39.0% /
52.1% |
39.3% /
49.2% |
59.7% /
26.8% |
6.3 /
6.5 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
49.2% /
29.5% |
28.2 /
27.1 |
| 11 |
NE |
8 – 33 L |
-15.9 |
45.3% /
56.1% |
7.5% /
9.8% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
4.4 /
8.1 |
76.2% /
55.0% |
14.3% /
25.0% |
5.2 /
4.5 |
74 /
61 |
59.6% /
60.4% |
54.1% /
55.7% |
24.4% /
40.2% |
4.6 /
6.9 |
8.1% /
0.0% |
28.4% /
32.8% |
23.0 /
23.1 |
| 12 |
DEN |
21 – 14 W |
9.5 |
50.0% /
30.0% |
7.7% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
9.4 /
4.0 |
40.0% /
17.6% |
22.5% /
29.4% |
2.7 /
3.5 |
66 /
57 |
50.0% /
21.4% |
43.9% /
26.3% |
50.7% /
42.0% |
5.3 /
3.8 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
60.6% /
29.8% |
32.7 /
21.7 |
| 13 |
NYG |
24 – 17 W |
4.2 |
48.6% /
40.5% |
2.7% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
5.4 |
43.3% /
50.0% |
26.7% /
20.8% |
4.0 /
2.7 |
67 /
61 |
48.9% /
46.8% |
46.3% /
44.3% |
41.5% /
40.8% |
6.0 /
4.3 |
1.5% /
3.3% |
44.8% /
39.3% |
28.7 /
28.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NE |
42 – 27 W |
-1.8 |
60.5% /
33.3% |
7.9% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
6.3 |
42.4% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
25.0% |
5.7 /
3.5 |
71 /
75 |
63.5% /
46.4% |
52.1% /
41.3% |
53.7% /
54.8% |
7.6 /
5.0 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
46.5% /
48.0% |
25.5 /
27.8 |
| 2 |
PHI |
27 – 20 W |
2.0 |
50.0% /
44.2% |
12.5% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
7.3 /
5.8 |
47.4% /
58.8% |
26.3% /
17.6% |
5.9 /
6.3 |
51 /
69 |
51.3% /
46.3% |
49.0% /
47.8% |
45.3% /
42.4% |
6.7 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
37.3% /
24.6% |
35.6 /
26.1 |
| 3 |
@LAC |
24 – 10 W |
8.0 |
34.6% /
35.7% |
19.2% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
4.7 /
5.4 |
56.0% /
34.6% |
20.0% /
34.6% |
7.6 /
4.0 |
51 /
68 |
50.0% /
34.5% |
45.1% /
35.3% |
55.0% /
39.1% |
6.1 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.0% /
38.2% |
30.5 /
22.8 |
| 4 |
WAS |
29 – 20 W |
-4.3 |
47.5% /
45.8% |
10.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
9.2 |
58.1% /
51.9% |
19.4% /
14.8% |
5.4 /
4.1 |
71 /
51 |
51.7% /
54.1% |
52.1% /
49.0% |
43.4% /
57.2% |
6.0 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
43.7% /
52.9% |
21.2 /
26.8 |
| 5 |
@HOU |
42 – 34 W |
9.9 |
57.9% /
46.9% |
2.6% /
9.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
7.8 |
40.0% /
60.9% |
34.3% /
13.0% |
3.6 /
6.3 |
73 /
55 |
47.4% /
56.8% |
49.3% /
52.7% |
31.6% /
64.8% |
6.2 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
47.9% /
41.8% |
31.2 /
27.6 |
| 6 |
PIT |
13 – 19 L |
-5.8 |
35.1% /
57.7% |
8.1% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
4.0% |
6.0 /
9.4 |
40.0% /
53.8% |
33.3% /
17.9% |
1.9 /
5.0 |
52 /
65 |
39.5% /
64.0% |
36.5% /
55.4% |
62.5% /
61.7% |
4.8 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
60.0% |
31.7 /
21.3 |
| 7 |
@OAK |
30 – 31 L |
3.0 |
48.6% /
44.2% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
8.0 |
47.8% /
38.1% |
26.1% /
19.0% |
4.1 /
4.2 |
60 /
73 |
46.7% /
40.7% |
48.3% /
42.5% |
52.9% /
45.7% |
7.1 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.3% /
28.8% |
22.9 /
20.6 |
| 8 |
DEN |
29 – 19 W |
11.9 |
36.4% /
41.0% |
3.0% /
7.7% |
3.1% /
8.3% |
6.0 /
4.8 |
25.9% /
61.3% |
37.0% /
12.9% |
3.0 /
5.7 |
60 /
70 |
37.0% /
53.6% |
31.7% /
50.0% |
52.0% /
39.0% |
4.6 /
5.2 |
1.7% /
2.9% |
45.0% /
44.3% |
40.0 /
23.9 |
| 9 |
@DAL |
17 – 28 L |
-4.3 |
50.0% /
52.9% |
5.6% /
2.9% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
7.2 |
42.1% /
64.5% |
31.6% /
12.9% |
3.6 /
4.2 |
55 /
65 |
51.2% /
58.5% |
47.3% /
58.5% |
40.6% /
42.4% |
5.9 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.5% /
47.7% |
22.9 /
26.8 |
| 11 |
@NYG |
9 – 12 L |
-2.1 |
42.9% /
38.9% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
7.3% /
2.8% |
5.5 /
5.7 |
51.7% /
40.0% |
10.3% /
22.9% |
4.6 /
3.2 |
71 /
71 |
49.2% /
45.1% |
46.5% /
39.4% |
41.6% /
22.0% |
5.1 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.8% /
49.3% |
21.5 /
30.2 |
| 12 |
BUF |
10 – 16 L |
-5.9 |
39.5% /
45.2% |
5.3% /
6.5% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
5.3 |
25.0% /
38.5% |
30.0% /
38.5% |
2.8 /
2.7 |
58 /
70 |
42.9% /
46.9% |
34.5% /
41.4% |
39.2% /
34.1% |
4.1 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.5% /
55.7% |
21.8 /
34.8 |
| 13 |
@NYJ |
31 – 38 L |
0.6 |
54.3% /
58.3% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.3 /
9.2 |
54.5% /
43.1% |
9.1% /
29.4% |
10.2 /
3.1 |
46 /
87 |
59.5% /
46.8% |
54.3% /
49.4% |
74.5% /
40.8% |
10.3 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.9% /
58.6% |
27.2 /
24.0 |
Oakland Raiders
@ 
Kansas City Chiefs