Game Analysis
Lean – Chicago (+13.5/+14) over PHILADELPHIA
Lean – Under (44)
This matchup features two of the league’s top rushing offenses and I expect both to feature a heavy dose of the ground game on Sunday, which will keep the clock moving. The Bears run the football on 48% of plays (2nd) while gaining 4.5 yards per rush (6th) including 222 yards on the ground last week. Philadelphia’s rush rate is also 48% this season and they are gaining 4.6 ypr (4th) including 215 rushing yards last game.
Chicago’s two most important defensive players are Prince Amukamara, 4th among cornerbacks in yards per cover snap, and play-caller Danny Trevathan, 3rd-fewest misses per attempted tackle among inside linebackers. The Bears have held opponents under 5 yards per play in five of the six games both Amukamara and Trevathan have been in the lineup this season with the only exception on the road against a very good New Orleans attack.
Our model likes the under but Trevathan has been downgraded to doubtful this week so Chicago’s defense won’t be as good as normal (I adjusted 1.7 points). However, Philadelphia’s defense surrenders 5.0 yppl (7th) and they should not have much trouble stopping the Bears 23rd-ranked offense. There is still some value on the Under and I’ll also lean with Chicago plus the points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.2
34.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
36.2%
45.9%
-
Sack Rate
10.3%
8.3%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
1.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.8%
18.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.5%
36.8%
-
NYPP
5.6
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.6
28.6
-
RB YPR
4.1
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
25.5%
19.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.9%
42.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.3%
33.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
60.8
63.3
-
Early Down Succ
42.5%
46.6%
-
Succ Rate
40.3%
43.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.9%
38.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.2
30.0
-
Run Ratio
48.9%
45.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.4
29.0
-
Game Control
-3.1
3.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.3
42.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.2%
42.6%
-
Sack Rate
6.7%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
3.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.7%
14.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.8%
31.9%
-
NYPP
6.9
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
33.0
19.5
-
RB YPR
4.0
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
23.3%
31.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.8%
40.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
54.3%
44.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
67.3
61.9
-
Early Down Succ
45.1%
46.3%
-
Succ Rate
43.7%
42.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
48.6%
35.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.3
26.4
-
Run Ratio
49.0%
31.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.5
27.9
-
Game Control
7.7
-7.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
ATL |
17 – 23 L |
-2.5 |
31.8% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
9.6 |
52.6% /
32.0% |
15.8% /
24.0% |
6.6 /
2.6 |
63 /
57 |
37.5% /
45.2% |
38.1% /
42.1% |
31.2% /
49.7% |
4.8 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.2% /
43.9% |
28.1 /
18.3 |
| 2 |
@TB |
7 – 29 L |
-18.1 |
56.5% /
48.5% |
2.2% /
6.1% |
4.4% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
5.9 |
25.0% /
36.1% |
43.8% /
11.1% |
1.3 /
3.3 |
62 /
69 |
50.0% /
41.2% |
48.4% /
42.0% |
6.5% /
14.4% |
5.0 /
4.5 |
3.2% /
1.4% |
25.8% /
52.2% |
27.0 /
31.1 |
| 3 |
PIT |
23 – 17 W |
4.4 |
33.3% /
47.6% |
8.3% /
7.1% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
5.0 |
44.7% /
64.7% |
28.9% /
5.9% |
5.8 /
4.1 |
62 /
59 |
42.0% /
56.3% |
40.3% /
52.5% |
55.3% /
29.4% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
3.4% |
61.3% /
28.8% |
32.7 /
36.4 |
| 4 |
@GB |
14 – 35 L |
-16.9 |
38.2% /
41.4% |
2.9% /
6.9% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
5.8 |
40.0% /
48.0% |
26.7% /
4.0% |
3.4 /
3.7 |
64 /
54 |
36.0% /
43.2% |
39.1% /
44.4% |
25.6% /
50.6% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
46.9% /
46.3% |
28.5 /
33.5 |
| 5 |
MIN |
17 – 20 L |
-0.9 |
37.0% /
50.0% |
3.7% /
11.1% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
3.9 |
48.3% /
35.5% |
13.8% /
25.8% |
4.0 /
5.1 |
56 /
67 |
46.5% /
44.2% |
42.9% /
43.3% |
34.7% /
30.3% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
51.8% /
46.3% |
26.6 /
30.9 |
| 6 |
@BAL |
27 – 24 W |
4.4 |
28.6% /
27.3% |
19.0% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
5.3 /
3.8 |
41.8% /
46.2% |
29.1% /
15.4% |
4.2 /
4.8 |
76 /
70 |
42.1% /
37.3% |
38.2% /
34.3% |
41.1% /
21.6% |
4.5 /
4.2 |
2.6% /
1.4% |
72.4% /
37.1% |
27.6 /
29.9 |
| 7 |
CAR |
17 – 3 W |
11.4 |
18.2% /
41.0% |
36.4% /
12.8% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
7.7 /
4.7 |
32.3% /
33.3% |
16.1% /
33.3% |
2.3 /
3.6 |
42 /
69 |
41.7% /
37.7% |
28.6% /
37.7% |
67.3% /
49.8% |
3.7 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
73.8% /
43.5% |
28.7 /
24.6 |
| 8 |
@NO |
12 – 20 L |
-7.8 |
32.4% /
50.0% |
5.9% /
6.7% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
4.4 /
9.5 |
45.2% /
36.4% |
32.3% /
18.2% |
5.1 /
3.2 |
65 /
63 |
36.2% /
52.1% |
38.5% /
42.9% |
61.2% /
57.9% |
4.7 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
47.7% /
52.4% |
24.8 /
30.8 |
| 10 |
GB |
16 – 23 L |
-5.0 |
37.5% /
50.0% |
12.5% /
10.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.5 |
29.4% /
52.6% |
35.3% /
15.8% |
3.2 /
4.2 |
57 /
66 |
35.7% /
55.3% |
35.1% /
51.5% |
51.1% /
39.1% |
5.7 /
5.2 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
29.8% /
57.6% |
26.5 /
30.8 |
| 11 |
DET |
24 – 27 L |
0.0 |
48.4% /
52.9% |
3.2% /
8.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
8.4 |
60.0% /
40.0% |
13.3% /
40.0% |
7.4 /
2.6 |
61 /
59 |
56.9% /
53.2% |
54.1% /
47.5% |
45.5% /
39.4% |
6.5 /
6.0 |
1.6% /
1.7% |
49.2% /
42.4% |
23.9 /
24.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@WAS |
30 – 17 W |
5.1 |
51.2% /
38.6% |
4.9% /
9.1% |
2.6% /
2.5% |
7.3 /
4.5 |
36.0% /
58.8% |
28.0% /
23.5% |
2.4 /
3.8 |
66 /
61 |
44.0% /
49.0% |
45.5% /
44.3% |
37.8% /
38.3% |
5.4 /
4.3 |
1.5% /
4.9% |
37.9% /
27.9% |
31.8 /
26.1 |
| 2 |
@KC |
20 – 27 L |
-2.0 |
44.2% /
50.0% |
11.5% /
12.5% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
7.3 |
58.8% /
47.4% |
17.6% /
26.3% |
6.3 /
5.9 |
69 /
51 |
46.3% /
51.3% |
47.8% /
49.0% |
42.4% /
45.3% |
5.9 /
6.7 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
24.6% /
37.3% |
26.1 /
35.6 |
| 3 |
NYG |
27 – 24 W |
4.0 |
41.2% /
59.6% |
8.8% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
4.7 /
7.8 |
48.7% /
23.5% |
23.1% /
23.5% |
5.0 /
2.9 |
73 /
64 |
47.3% /
55.8% |
45.2% /
50.0% |
30.4% /
23.4% |
4.9 /
6.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
53.4% /
26.6% |
21.5 /
34.6 |
| 4 |
@LAC |
26 – 24 W |
6.2 |
46.9% /
42.5% |
3.1% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
8.6 |
47.7% /
38.5% |
20.5% /
46.2% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
76 /
53 |
47.3% /
39.5% |
47.4% /
41.5% |
56.1% /
68.3% |
6.0 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
57.9% /
24.5% |
22.1 /
22.2 |
| 5 |
ARI |
34 – 7 W |
16.7 |
48.4% /
41.3% |
3.2% /
4.3% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
9.6 /
6.0 |
28.6% /
21.4% |
22.9% /
35.7% |
3.5 /
2.2 |
66 /
60 |
33.3% /
37.2% |
37.9% /
36.7% |
52.3% /
20.2% |
6.4 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
53.0% /
23.3% |
34.1 /
19.3 |
| 6 |
@CAR |
28 – 23 W |
3.0 |
39.4% /
37.0% |
9.1% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
5.8% |
6.3 /
4.2 |
37.9% /
48.0% |
27.6% /
40.0% |
3.6 /
3.2 |
62 /
79 |
41.9% /
45.0% |
38.7% /
40.5% |
54.2% /
20.7% |
5.0 /
3.9 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
46.8% /
31.6% |
32.9 /
30.0 |
| 7 |
WAS |
34 – 24 W |
4.7 |
53.6% /
56.8% |
10.7% /
9.1% |
4.0% /
2.5% |
8.7 /
6.1 |
29.4% /
47.4% |
23.5% /
15.8% |
3.8 /
4.0 |
62 /
63 |
39.6% /
62.5% |
40.3% /
54.0% |
63.4% /
46.4% |
6.0 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.8% /
30.2% |
32.5 /
27.7 |
| 8 |
SF |
33 – 10 W |
11.9 |
42.9% /
32.5% |
8.6% /
10.0% |
3.1% /
5.6% |
5.5 /
3.6 |
39.4% /
41.7% |
27.3% /
41.7% |
3.5 /
3.9 |
68 /
64 |
46.9% /
40.8% |
41.2% /
35.9% |
44.4% /
38.2% |
4.5 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.5% /
37.5% |
29.0 /
28.5 |
| 9 |
DEN |
51 – 23 W |
19.2 |
50.0% /
36.6% |
6.7% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
7.4 /
4.7 |
47.4% /
36.8% |
26.3% /
31.6% |
5.2 /
1.8 |
68 /
60 |
53.1% /
39.1% |
48.5% /
36.7% |
52.9% /
27.4% |
6.2 /
3.8 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
55.9% /
31.7% |
37.7 /
26.1 |
| 11 |
@DAL |
37 – 9 W |
8.3 |
44.4% /
30.6% |
0.0% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
9.4% |
6.2 /
3.1 |
44.4% /
42.9% |
16.7% /
28.6% |
6.1 /
4.0 |
63 /
64 |
51.2% /
42.6% |
44.4% /
35.9% |
52.1% /
28.8% |
6.1 /
3.5 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
57.1% /
43.8% |
27.3 /
28.9 |
Chicago Bears
@ 
Philadelphia Eagles