San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Over (44.5) – ARIZONA (-6.5) vs San Francisco (lean SF at +7 or more)

San Francisco exploded for 39 points last Thursday night after not reaching double digits in the first two weeks but the Niners’ offense still ranks 29th in my ratings – although I do expect that unit to improve as they get more acclimated to the system. The 49ers have been a better team defensively this season (22nd in NFL) and they’ve actually been unfortunate allowing opponents to convert on more than half of 3rd downs. I expect San Francisco to get more 3rd down stops moving forward, which will help their fortunes.

Injuries have ravaged Arizona’s offense and they’ll have to rely on their defense in this one. It’s a good matchup for the Cardinals because the 49ers need to run the ball to be successful and Arizona ranks 10th in rush defense based on my numbers while not having allowed an opponent to rush for 100 yards this season. The Cardinals defense have been unlucky in having their opponents score touchdowns in 7 of 8 Redzone opportunities this season and I expect their Redzone defense to improve moving forward.

I’ll lean with the Over based on a 66-28-4 Over situation and I’d lean with San Francisco at +7 points or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

49ers
Cardinals

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.3 31.3
Succ Pass Plays 37.7% 47.8%
Sack Rate 9.0% 2.4%
Int Rate 3.1% 1.4%
Deep Pass Rate 11.7% 18.5%
Big Pass Yards 27.4% 36.5%
NYPP 4.9 7.3

Rush

Rush Plays 22.3 39.0
RB YPR 5.2 3.2
Stuff Rate 25.0% 22.0%
Succ Rush Plays 43.6% 42.6%
Big Rush Yards 57.3% 34.5%
Yards Per Rush 5.1 3.3

Game

All Snaps 58.7 70.3
Early Down Succ 44.9% 45.8%
Succ Rate 40.9% 44.7%
Big Yards Rate 44.6% 36.3%
Yards Per Play 5.0 5.0
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 1.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.3 29.0
Run Ratio 37.3% 55.9%
Starting Field Pos 30.2 31.2
Game Control -7.6 7.6

Points 17.0 25.3

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 47.7 34.0
Succ Pass Plays 40.6% 43.7%
Sack Rate 7.7% 5.8%
Int Rate 3.0% 1.7%
Deep Pass Rate 19.8% 16.2%
Big Pass Yards 56.2% 33.9%
NYPP 6.1 6.9

Rush

Rush Plays 21.7 28.0
RB YPR 2.7 2.7
Stuff Rate 20.5% 26.3%
Succ Rush Plays 35.6% 34.5%
Big Rush Yards 11.8% 40.6%
Yards Per Rush 2.7 3.1

Game

All Snaps 69.3 62.0
Early Down Succ 38.8% 40.6%
Succ Rate 39.0% 39.5%
Big Yards Rate 48.2% 35.6%
Yards Per Play 5.0 5.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.3 29.4
Run Ratio 31.4% 46.7%
Starting Field Pos 26.6 30.2
Game Control -1.0 1.0

Points 18.7 25.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CAR	3 – 23 L	-12.4	46.2% / 45.8%	10.3% / 0.0%	2.9% / 4.2%	4.3 / 7.1	26.7% / 39.0%	26.7% / 14.6%	3.4 / 2.9	54 / 65	48.7% / 42.6%	40.7% / 41.5%	33.6% / 29.7%	4.0 / 4.5	1.9% / 1.5%	27.8% / 63.1%	30.1 / 33.7
2	@SEA	9 – 12 L	-2.0	20.7% / 33.3%	6.9% / 7.1%	3.7% / 0.0%	3.1 / 4.3	52.6% / 37.2%	21.1% / 20.9%	8.4 / 3.1	48 / 85	38.9% / 37.5%	33.3% / 35.3%	49.2% / 23.7%	5.2 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	39.6% / 50.6%	24.5 / 23.9
3	LA	39 – 41 L	-8.5	46.3% / 64.3%	9.8% / 0.0%	2.7% / 0.0%	7.5 / 10.4	51.5% / 51.5%	27.3% / 30.3%	3.4 / 3.8	74 / 61	47.2% / 57.4%	48.6% / 57.4%	50.8% / 55.4%	5.7 / 6.9	1.4% / 3.3%	44.6% / 54.1%	36.1 / 36.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DET	23 – 35 L	2.7	42.9% / 47.6%	2.0% / 2.4%	6.3% / 2.4%	5.4 / 6.8	38.9% / 35.7%	16.7% / 21.4%	2.5 / 3.0	67 / 70	41.2% / 42.3%	41.8% / 42.9%	29.4% / 27.4%	4.6 / 5.3	1.5% / 0.0%	26.9% / 40.0%	28.5 / 36.6
2	@IND	16 – 13 W	-6.3	40.0% / 41.5%	10.0% / 9.8%	2.8% / 2.7%	7.7 / 4.6	34.6% / 34.5%	11.5% / 24.1%	3.2 / 2.6	66 / 70	39.6% / 36.5%	37.9% / 38.6%	63.6% / 16.5%	5.9 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.4% / 41.4%	29.6 / 24.5
3	DAL	17 – 28 L	0.5	38.9% / 42.1%	11.1% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.2 / 9.2	33.3% / 33.3%	33.3% / 33.3%	2.3 / 3.7	75 / 46	35.7% / 42.9%	37.3% / 37.0%	51.5% / 62.8%	4.4 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	28.0% / 58.7%	21.6 / 29.4

San Francisco 49ers @

Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Oct 1

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis