Game Analysis

*Louisville (-24 ½)  48   Purdue  17

My math model using last year’s stats would have favored Louisville by 38 ½ points in this game and I don’t think the gap has closed as much as the odds makers think it has. Louisville may not be quite as good offensively as they were last year even with Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson back but the defense should be at least as good as it has been in coach Petrino’s first three seasons (0.9 yppl better than average in each of the last 3 seasons) and the Cardinals aren’t likely to be -12 in fumble margin this season. Louisville actually ranked as the 5^th best team in the nation last season in compensated yards per play differential but they were only 14^th in a points based model in part because of their bad luck with fumbles (and below average special team).

I suppose this line is lower than I think it should be because of faith in new Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm. I think Brohm has a great offensive mind too. However, I have very little faith in the two quarterbacks he has to choose from this season. Incumbent starter David Blough improved as a sophomore last season after a dreadful freshman season but he was still 0.4 yards per pass play worse than average on a national scale (5.8 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB) and threw 21 interceptions. Blough has had a tendency to panic in the face of pressure and Brohm said that Blough struggles to deal with pressure and when things aren’t happening in rhythm. Brohm also said, “Right now, our quarterback looks good in skelly and looks good throwing routes but when you get a rush in there and some things break down, we have to continue to work on and get better.”

Uh, that’s not good when going up against an aggressive Louisville defense with a ton of athleticism. Blough may not actually start in this game due to an injured shoulder (although he’s been upgraded to probable to play) and backup Elijah Sindelar completed just 14 of 32 passes last season for just 4.9 yards per pass play. I don’t see Sindelar being any better given how poorly the offense functioned in the Boilermakers’ final scrimmage with Sindelar playing with the first unit.

“Offensively, it was not a good day,” Brohm said. “Pretty much everything that could go wrong went wrong early on,” he said. “We regrouped a little bit after that. It wasn’t a good day offensively. There’s a lot of work to do.”

I had expected a significant increase in Purdue’s passing efficiency based on Brohm’s history (from 0.4 yppp worse than average to 0.2 yppp better than average). I’ll maintain that rating but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were worse given how a worse than average Purdue defense dominated both scrimmages over the past couple of weeks and the Boilermakers’ defense isn’t very good.

The Purdue defense has been 1.0 yards per rushing play worse than average in each of the last two seasons and the Boilermakers’ pass defense was 0.8 yppp worse than average last season despite having a veteran group (8 returning starters). Purdue once again returns 8 starters to the defense and I expect the new coaching staff to improve that unit but I still rate the Boilermakers’ defense at 0.5 yards per play worse than average after being 0.8 yppl worse than aveage in each of the last two seasons.

Overall my ratings favor the Cardinals by 31 ½ points and I don’t see them looking past this game after dropping their final 3 games last season after a 9-1 start (the lone loss by just 6 points against National Champion Clemson). Louisville won their first four games last season by an average margin of 41 points, which includes a 43 point win over Florida State and in general the Cardinals were relatively better against worse teams. I can see this one getting out of hand too but I am a bit concerned that Petrino may call off the dogs with a big lead against Brohm, who is a former OC under Petrino at Western Kentucky and who attended the wedding of Petrino’s daughter over the summer. But, Petrino has a history of beating up on lesser teams and I’ll take Louisville in a 1-Star Best Bet at -25 points or less (Strong Opinion up to -27).