Game Analysis

Seattle (-3) at DENVER

It would have been nice to see Jaxon Smith-Njigba going up against Patrick Surtain, but the Broncos’ All-Pro cornerback is expected to sit out again this week. The Broncos aren’t putting pressure on the quarterback like last season’s 68-sacks defense did but they still rank 6^th in the league in success rate allowed, although their randomly bad 3^rd-down defense (#25 at 45.8%) has dragged down their EPA to 14^th in the league. Those are still good numbers considering that they’ve faced Kansas City, Jacksonville and the 49ers this season.

Seattle has struggled offensively, as Sam Darnold has been just average (backup Drew Lock was much better) and the rush attack has been horrible without Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price, as #3 and #4 backs Wilson and Holani have combined for just 3.3 yards per run. The Seahawks are #25 in EPA per play and #22 in success rate and their numbers are dropping. Smith-Njigba should have a great game without Surtain on him but he’s been great (117 yards per game at 11.7 yards per target and a 62% success rate) and the offense is still sluggish.

Denver’s offense is even more sluggish (#24 in EPA, #26 in success and #28 in explosive play rate) and head coach Sean Payton taking over play-calling last week didn’t help, as they were actually worse than normal (-15 total EPA and 33% success). To be fair, the Broncos have faced a slate of good defensive teams (KC, Jax, Rams, SF, LAC), but they’ve still been 3.1 points per game worse than average based on predictive metrics and accounting for schedule and average scoring conditions.

While Seattle’s offense has struggled, their defense has been even better than last season’s elite unit. The Seahawks rank 2^nd in the NFL in both EPA per play and success rate allowed with number better than last season and I don’t anticipate the Broncos’ getting out of their funk this week.

My ratings favor Seattle by 3.2 points (assuming Denver CB Riley plays) and 40.2 total points (based on 25% chance of rain).