New Orleans Saints @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Dec 28
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 419
Odds: Tennessee Titans +2.5, Total: 39.5

Game Analysis

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New Orleans (-2.5) vs TENNESSEE

  • Tennessee’s defense is down three safeties, but it didn’t show versus Kansas City’s disaster of an offense. I expect Tyler Shough to attack downfield with WR Chris Olave, who leads the NFL with 30 deep targets.
  • Saints’ RG Cesar Ruiz ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency, but could be sidelined again, and he is worth half a point.
  • Cam Ward is averaging 23% more yppp versus cover 3 compared to other coverages (4th), and he has a favorable matchup as New Orleans has a league-high 33% cover 3 rate.
  • Saints’ LB Demario Davis picked up a hamstring injury late last week and will be banged up for this game. Davis has 35 run stops (5th), and the New Orleans run defense will likely be worse than usual.
  • Our model favors the Saints by 0.6 points, with a predicted total of 40.1 points, but a 54-17-3 late-season Under trend applies.
  • The Titans are 0-10 straight up and 0-10 ATS following a victory the last 3 seasons, including a pair of double-digit losses this year after a win. I used the Saints in my spread pool.
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