Game Analysis

SEATTLE (-13.5) vs Indianapolis

• The Colts’ season has turned into a disaster, and they’ve made a last-ditch effort by signing Phillip Rivers, who is now expected to start.
• Rivers will be missing Indianapolis RT Braden Smith, who is one of 11 qualifying tackles to concede fewer than 2 sacks.
• The Colts’ issues are not just on the offensive side of the ball, as their defense will be without DT DeForest Buckner and star cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward.
• Buckner has an 11.3% pressure rate compared to backup Indianapolis interior defender Neville Gallimore with only a 6.4% pressure rate.
• Gardner and Ward are conceding a combined 0.81 yards per cover snap, while Colts backup cornerbacks Mekhi Blackmon and Jaylon Jones are allowing a combined 1.08 yards per cover snap.
• Buckner, Gardner, and Ward are worth 2.7 points to the Indianapolis defense according to our metrics.
• Daniel Jones and RT Smith are worth close to 8 points to the Colts offense if it’s Leonard at quarterback again (I think a prepared Rivers could be a bit better than Leonard).
• Seattle’s defense is allowing a league-low -0.21 EPA/rush, and they will force Leonard to be a passer, which is not something he’s good at. Notre Dame’s offense was significantly better this season without Leonard, who is a good runner but was a mediocre passer in college.
• We’re looking at Indianapolis with a win probability 30 percentage points below where they would be with Jones, Smith, Buckner, Garnder, and Ward.
• Colts TE Tyler Warren 0.41 EPA/target (5th), and he has a favorable matchup as the Seahawks are surrendering a 60% success rate to opposing tight ends (26th).
• Our model makes Seattle an 13.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 42.5. I took the Seahawks in my spread pool.