Game Analysis

PHILADELPHIA (-12) vs Las Vegas

• Jalen Hurts threw 4 interceptions last week and became the first player to have two turnovers on one down against the Chargers on a crazy play in the second quarter.
• The Eagles tried to throw into the middle of the field more often to open up the offense, as they had 11 pass attempts from 10-19 air yards, the most of the last three seasons. That strategy backfired against the Chargers but Hurts has a 1.9% Turnover Worthy Play Rate (2nd) and I expect him to be less risky with the ball on Sunday as a double-digit favorite.
• Philadelphia’s offense is averaging 0.4 yppl fewer with RT Lane Johnson off the field, and he will likely be out another week.
• Eagles’ backup RT Fred Johnson will struggle across from edge rusher Maxx Crosby, who has 47 pressures (14th).
• Philadelphia will be down interior defender Jalen Carter, who has a 10.4% pressure rate. Eagles’ backup interior defenders Jordan Davis and Byron Young are combining for only an 8.0% pressure rate.
• However, the Raiders rank last in pass blocking efficiency, and I doubt they will be able to protect Kenny Pickett, who is starting for Geno Smith.
• Las Vegas TE Brock Bowers is averaging 1.79 yards per route run (2nd), but he should be contained against an Eagles’ defense is conceding a league-low 41% success rate to opposing tight ends.
• Our model favors the Eagles by 13.4 points, with a predicted total of 37.3 points, but the Eagles are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games when laying 8 points or more and the Raiders apply to a 50-10-2 ATS contrary angle that plays on teams on a 7-games or more losing streak. I used the Raiders in my spread pool.