Game Analysis

Note: The total has dropped to 43.5 points, which is out of range for a Strong Opinion (i.e. 0.5 Star bet). Just a Lean on Under 43.5.

Strong Opinion – Under (44.5) – TAMPA BAY (-5.5) vs Atlanta

• Tampa Bay will be missing both starting guards and a starting linebacker on Thursday night, but this is as healthy as we’ve seen the Buccaneers since September, as they will likely have back WR Mike Evans, WR Jalen McMillan, RT Tristan Wirfs, and defenders Haason Reddick and Tykee Smith, who both got knocked out last week.
• Baker Mayfield’s yards per attempt against the blitz is a league-low 85% of his yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush because Tampa Bay’s constantly changing offensive line has had no time to gel. Mayfield will likely struggle as Atlanta’s defense has a 46% blitz rate (2nd-highest).
• Additionally, the Falcons have a 57% single-high coverage rate (2nd-highest), and they will limit Mayfield, whose yppp against single-high is a league-low 84% of his yppp versus two-high safeties.
• Kirk Cousins is averaging 2.2 air yards per attempt fewer than Michael Penix, partially because he is more conservative and partially because WR Drake London has been sidelined. London was averaging 2.66 yards per route run (3rd). Backup WR David Sills has a 35% success rate compared to London’s 57% success rate. London is worth 1.4 points by our numbers.
• Tampa Bay’s defense is missing LB SirVocea Dennis, and I’m not convinced the defense isn’t better off without him in this game. Falcons RB Bijan Robinson is averaging 1.85 yards per route run (3rd), and the Buccaneers are surrendering league-high 0.48 EPA/target to opposing running backs in large part because of Dennis, who has allowed 11.8 yards per target and 593 yards into his coverage (2nd-most). Backup LB Deion Jones is allowing 6.6 yards per target.
• Tampa Bay interior defender Vita Vea has a sack in back-to-back games, but he will be contained by C Ryan Neuzil, who ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency. This is the reason it’s important that the Buccaneers got back Reddick, who leads Tampa Bay’s defense in pass rushing efficiency and will have a favorable matchup across from backup RT Elijah Wilkinson, who has surrendered 36 pressures (6th-most).
• Our model favors the Buccaneers by 6.7 points, with a predicted total of 41.5 points, and the matchups favor the under.

Strong Opinion Under 44 points or more.