Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (48) – LA Rams (-8/-8.5) at ARIZONA

• Los Angeles had a 58% success rate last week, the 12th-best single-game performance of any game this year. The Rams didn’t see a fourth down in the entire first half before the rain started in Carolina. Los Angeles ultimately lost because of three turnovers.
• Matthew Stafford had 2 interceptions against the Panthers but Stafford has just a 2.2% Turnover Worthy Play Rate (5th) for the season.
• Rams’ head coach Sean McVay will likely lean on the ground game as the Los Angeles passing attack could struggle against Arizona’s defense, with the 2nd-highest cover 4 rate. Stafford ranks 27th relatively against Cover 4 compared to other coverages.
• Additionally, the Cardinals’ defense ranks 8th, relatively, versus play action compared to standard dropbacks and will contain the Rams, who lead the NFL with a 36% play action rate.
• It’s becoming increasingly evident that Arizona needs to get Kyler Murray back on the field to decide his future. The Cardinals are 1-6 in Jacoby Brissett’s starts, and he is averaging 0.05 EPA/play (23rd).
• Brissett will struggle this week as Los Angeles limits TE Trey McBride, who has a 63% success rate (4th). The Rams are conceding only 0.06 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (3rd).
• Our model favors Los Angeles by 8.9 points, with a predicted total of 47.9 points, and the Rams apply to a 91-34-4 ATS bounce-0back situation that is based on last week’s upset loss to Carolina in which they were in a VERY negative situation.
• There isn’t any line value on the Under but the matchups strongly favor a lower scoring than expected game and this game applies to a 588-431-16 Under situation.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 47.5 points or higher. And, the Rams are part of the Strong Opinion Teaser with the Chargers.