Game Analysis

Lean – LAS VEGAS (+7.5) over Denver

Lean – Under (40)

• Las Vegas is gaining 1.0 yppl fewer since losing LT Kolton Miller. The Raiders rank last in pass blocking efficiency and will struggle against a Broncos defense with a 41% pressure rate (2nd).
• Denver edge defender Nik Bonitto ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency, and he should have a big day lined up across from Miller’s replacement, left tackle Stone Forsythe.
• I think the Las Vegas defense can contain Bo Nix, who has been better with his responsible decision-making against the blitz. Nix has only a 0.7% Turnover Worthy Play rate versus the blitz (2nd). However, the Raiders have a 75% standard pass rush rate (5th-highest), and Denver’s offense ranks 27th relatively against a standard pass rush compared to the blitz.
• Our model favors the Broncos by 8.0 points, with a predicted total of 38.5 points, but road favorites on an 8-games or more win streak are just 9-40-1 ATS from game 12 on (0-2 this season with New England at Cincy in week 12 and Denver at Washington last week both failing to cover).