Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (47) – Buffalo (-3.5) at PITTSBURGH

Lean – Pittsburgh (+3.5)

• Snow, rain, and wind on Sunday in Pittsburgh have scoring conditions predicted to be 3.7 points worse than average by our metrics.
• In addition to the weather, this game could be without three starting tackles. The Steelers are likely to be without LT  Broderick Jones and the Bills LT Dion Dawkins and RT Spencer Brown are also likely going to be sidelined.
• Brown played through an injury last week and surrendered a 20.6% pressure rate, his worst clip in a game as a starter. Dawkins is in concussion protocol. You do not want to go against Pittsburgh’s edge rushers when you’re missing both starting tackles. Ask the Chargers, who averaged -0.37 EPA/play in week 10 against the Steelers.
• Josh Allen will also likely be without TE Dalton Kincaid, who is averaging 2.05 more yards per route run than backup Dawson Knox.
• Aaron Rodgers confirmed he’s wearing a cast to protect his broken wrist. Asked if he’s ready to take snaps under center, Rodgers said, “Not today (Wednesday).”
• If Rodgers is unable to take snaps under center by Sunday, the Steelers’ ground game will be hampered.
• Buffalo’s defense has struggled against wide receivers catching passes out of heavy personnel, but the Steelers are targeting wide receivers on a league-low 42.9% of passes.
• Rodgers will try to get the ball out quickly to his running backs and tight ends, but I don’t expect it to work. The Bills are allowing -0.23 EPA/target to opposing running backs (2nd), and Buffalo’s defense is allowing just a 47% success rate to opposing tight ends (6th).
• Our model favors the Bills by 1.8 points with a predicted total of 42.1 points.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 45.5 points or more (Strong Opinion Under 45).