Game Analysis

Note: This game was released on Monday morning at -2, but the line has moved out of range and New Mexico is just a Lean at -3.5 or -4.

1-Star Best Bet – *New Mexico (-2)  32   AIR FORCE  23

I released this play on Monday morning not knowing for sure if Air Force quarterback Liam Szarka would play or not after getting knocked out of last week’s game with UConn. I saw value on New Mexico regardless and suspected that Szarka would likely miss at least one week. It turns out that the Air Force signal caller is out for the rest of the season, which is a blow to the Falcons’ offense. Szarka has averaged 9.6 yards on his 129 pass plays while adding 949 yards on the ground at 5.2 yards per rushing play. Air Force has what amounts to two full games of plays without Szarka this season (he started out as the backup QB) and the Falcons have been 0.7 yards per play worse than average (relative to the opposing defenses faced for each play) with Johnson or Hodges at quarterback while being 0.2 yppl better than average with Szarka in the game. Johnson started the season at quarterback and Hodges came in last week against Connecticut after Szarka was injured and led the offense to just 9 points in 3 quarters on 170 yards at 5.2 yards per play, which is 0.8 yppl less than what an average team would gain on the road against the Huskies’ below average defense.

The Air Force offense was likely to struggle in this game even with Szarka, as New Mexico has a very good defensive front 7 that has held opponents to just 4.3 yards per rushing play, which is 0.9 yprp less than those teams would average against an average defensive team. New Mexico is 0.6 yards per pass play worse than average, which won’t really hurt them much against an offense that runs the ball 77% of the time.

The New Mexico offense is led by quarterback Jack Layne, who has completed 67% of his passes this season for 7.2 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average team). Layne should have a good game against an Air Force defense that has allowed 69% completions and 9.0 yppp to a collection of worse than average quarterbacks that would combine for just 6.2 yppp against an average defense. The Falcons don’t defend the run either, as they’ve given up 6.1 yprp to teams that would average only 5.0 yprp against an average defense. Air Force has the worst defense in the nation from a compensated yards per play allowed perspective and New Mexico should move the ball consistently well.

New Mexico is a 1-Star Best Bet to -3 -115 odds or better (Just a Lean at -3.5 or -4).