Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – BUFFALO (-5.5) over Tampa Bay

• Baker Mayfield admitted his oblique strain has impaired his speed and mobility but reiterated his refusal to use it as a crutch, saying he’s focused on adapting and that the team needs to execute better regardless.
• Those sentiments don’t inspire confidence, and the lack of pocket mobility is troublesome, as Tampa Bay’s offensive line ranks 29th in pass-blocking efficiency and will be without both starting guards, Cody Mauch and Ben Bredeson.
• Buccaneers’ third- and fourth-string guards Michael Jordan and Dan Feeney will struggle against a Bills defensive line with a 42% pressure rate (3rd).
• Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defense is getting back CB Christian Benford and possibly nickelback Taron Johnson, who is conceding a league-low 0.65 yards per cover snap in the slot.
• Tampa Bay interior defender Vita Vea had 6 pressures last week against Patriots C Garrett Bradbury, but Vea will be contained in this game across from Bills C Connor McGovern, who ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency.
• The Buccaneers will be without edge defender Haason Reddick again. Reddick has a 16.1% pressure rate compared to backup edge defender Anthony Nelson’s 11.2% pressure rate.
• The Bills will be without tight end Dalton Kincaid, who is worth 0.4 points according to our numbers. However, backup TE Dawson Know has a 67% success rate.
• High winds are in the forecast, and I expect Josh Allen with Buffalo’s offense to be able to navigate the conditions better than a gimpy Baker Mayfield behind a banged-up interior offensive line.
• Buffalo lost by 17 points as an 8-point favorite last week and teams that lose to the spread by 24 points or more are generally good bets to bounce-back (the Bills apply to an 85-28-1 ATS situation based on that premise). Tampa Bay isn’t 2nd in the league in turnover margin, which is mostly random and has made the Bucs appear to be better than they are. Tampa applies to a negative 39-80-5 ATS turnover differential indicator.
• Our model favors the Bills by 7.1 points, with a predicted total of 44.3 points, and the situation favors Buffalo in this game.

Buffalo is a Strong Opinion at -6 or less.