Game Analysis

Lean – FLORIDA STATE (-14)  37   Virginia Tech  19

Florida State lost yet another road game despite outplaying their opponent from the line of scrimmage, as they fell to Clemson 10-24 while outgaining the Tigers by 23 yards (-2 in turnovers). The Seminoles just can’t win a road game but they are 4-2 ATS at home this season and still rate as a good team based on their compensated metrics. FSU has played at a level 15 points better than an average team in ACC play, which excludes their opening week win over Alabama and two blowout wins over bad teams. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, has been about a point worse than an average team this season.

My math model favors the Noles by 17.4 points in this game and they play better at home. Florida State is a Lean at -14 or less.