Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Alabama-Birmingham (+2.5)  27   RICE  23

This is a good matchup for a bad UAB defense that’s horrible defending the pass (8.8 yppp allowed and 2.2 yppp worse than average) and decent defending the run (5.3 yprp allowed and only 0.4 yprp worse than average). Rice runs a version of the option offense and doesn’t throw the ball often (only 27% of plays) or well (5.2 yppp against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average team). UAB’s defense has been 1.0 yards per play worse than average this season but that defense would only be 0.6 yppl worse than average against a team that runs the ball 73% of the time and that equates to 2.7 points of pure line value due to the matchup. Rice has averaged only 4.7 yprp this season against a schedule of teams that collectively have the same run defense rating as UAB has. Rice is projected to gain just 325 yards at 5.3 yppl .

It’s also an advantage for the Blazers that they’ve already faced two option teams this season. They allowed 8.4 yppl against Navy in week 2 but gave up just 4.7 yppl to Army in week 6 and should have a good handle on how to defend the option. Non-option teams are 58% ATS over the years in their 2nd or more game of the season against an option offense.

UAB also has a matchup advantage when they have the ball, as the Blazers average 42 pass plays per game against just 25 rushing plays and Rice  has been 1.6 yppp worse than average defending the pass (7.0 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.4 yppp against an average defense) while being just 0.4 yprp worse than average against the run. UAB’s offense has been 0.4 yppl worse than average this season and both quarterbacks have played at about the same level. Either Kitna or Burton should perform well against that horrible Rice secondary, and I project 410 yards at 6.3 yppl for the Blazers.

Rice does have better special teams and is less likely to turn the ball over due to the stark difference in passes attempted, but this is a very favorable matchup for UAB on both sides of the ball.

UAB is a Strong Opinion at +1.5 points or more.