Game Analysis

Note: The line on Las Vegas moved down to +1.5 this morning and would just be a Lean at that number. Still good value on the Over.

1-Star Best Bet – *LAS VEGAS (+3 -105) over Jacksonville

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (44.5)

• The Raiders will be getting back TE Brock Bowers and WR Jakobi Meyers coming out of the bye week, which is a point-and-a-half upgrade for the offense.
• Bowers averaged 2.02 yards per route run last season (3rd) as a rookie and is likely to be the best tight end in the NFL. Bowers had a PCL sprain, but he’s rested for a month, and he should come back with no limitations, like we saw WR Puka Nacua last season with 106 receiving yards and 2 carries in his first game coming off a PCL sprain.
• Meyers has a 54% success rate compared to backup Las Vegas WR Dont’e Thornton’s 28% success rate.
• Geno Smith has a favorable matchup with his full complement of weapons on the field. Jacksonville’s defense has a 31% cover 3 rate (3rd-highest). Cover 3’s three deep zones create exploitable underneath windows, aligning with Smith’s strengths in rhythm passing, and Las Vegas offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s Hi-Lo reads flood the cover 3 zones. Smith leads the NFL averaging 53% more yppp versus cover 3 compared to other coverages.
• The Raiders’ defense has a league-high 87% zone-coverage rate, and Trevor Lawrence is worst in the NFL relatively against zone, with his yards per attempt only 72% of his yards per attempt versus man-coverage.
• The Las Vegas defense revolves around edge defender Maxx Crosby, but he will be limited by RT Anton Harrison, who is one of 10 qualifying tackles to not allow a sack.
• Both these defenses are pass funnels, producing more plays, yardage, and points. The Jaguars are allowing a 32.4% rush success rate (2nd) and a 50.7% dropback success rate (25th). The Raiders are allowing a 38.0% rush success rate (7th) and a 50.7% dropback success rate (26th).
• The Raiders lost 0-31 to Kansas City to fall to 2-5 straight up and 2-5 ATS before last week’s bye week. But bad teams tend to use the bye week to ‘stop the bleeding’ and refocus themselves. Teams with a straight up and ATS win percentage of less than 0.300 are 73-28 ATS in the game after their bye week (64-19 ATS if their opponent has a spread win percentage of greater than 0.334). Also, underdogs in non-division games are 80-42-3 ATS after a shutout loss (5-2 after a bye).
• Our model favors the Jaguars by 2.0 points, with a predicted total of 47.9 points, and the situation strongly favors a better than expected performance from the Raiders off their bye week.

Las Vegas is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 -120 odds or better.

The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 45.5 points or less (Strong Opinion at 46).