Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Team Total Miami Under (20.5 -105)

Alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals is the game Under (51) to 50

Lean – Baltimore (-7.5) over MIAMI

• Last week was Miami’s first game without TE Darren Waller and WR Tyreek Hill. Tua Tagovailoa’s 2.37-second average time to throw against the Falcons was his quickest this season, and his 3.7-yard average depth of target was his lowest since 2021.
• The Dolphins used six offensive linemen on 13 plays in Atlanta. Head coach Mike McDaniel has never used jumbo personnel before last week.
• Miami’s quick game and jumbo package will struggle on Thursday night as Baltimore’s defense is 4th relatively versus heavy personnel.
• The Ravens have made a minor tweak to their defensive secondary coming out of the bye week, as newly acquired S Alohi Gilman took on an every-down role, and they are starting just two cornerbacks in Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey. Safety Kyle Hamilton lined up in the box on 61.3% of his defensive snaps in the win over the Bears, his highest rate in a game since 2022.
• Baltimore defensive coordinator Zach Orr’s emphasis on gap discipline and pursuit angles is tailor-made to counter McDaniel’s wide-zone ground game. The Ravens conceded only 3.6 yards per carry against zone runs in 2024.
• The Dolphins depend on scheme as much as any offense in the NFL, making the less prep this week a relative disadvantage. McDaniel has coached four Thursday night games in his career, and Miami’s offense has gone under its team total by an average of 6.6 points.
• Lamar Jackson will be back under center for this game, and it remains to be seen how healed his hamstring is, but the Ravens might not need his legs this week. The Dolphins are one of five defenses surrendering 5+ yards per carry, and Baltimore’s offense can lean on RB Derrick Henry.
• Both of these teams have been over teams so far this season, with the Ravens going over in 6 of their 7 games and the Dolphins going over in 6 of 8 games. However, from week 8 on when two teams that have been more than 67% overs meet the Under is 43-24-1, including 30-8-1 if the total is 47 points or higher.
• Our model favors the Ravens by 8.9 points, with a predicted total of 45.3 points. We prefer the Miami Team Total under, since Baltimore with Lamar Jackson at quarterback tends to outscore their model projection.

Miami’s Team Total Under is a Strong Opinion Under 20.5 -115 odds or better.

The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is the game Under (51) at 50 or higher.