Game Analysis

Note: The Chargers are now out of range unless the line comes back down to -3 -115 (Strong Opinion at that price). The Over is now just a Strong Opinion (at 44.5).

1-Star Best Bet – *LA CHARGERS (-2.5) over Minnesota

1-Star Best Bet – Over (43.5)

• I don’t think the betting market was factoring in the return of Chargers LT Joe Alt when we bet this side and total on Monday.
• The Los Angeles offense was rated 2 points above average, implied by the betting market before Alt’s ankle sprain. I have Minnesota’s defense rated 1 point better than average, the same as the market.
• A +2 offense versus a +1 defense at home on turf covered with a roof should not have an implied team total of 22.5, which is where it was with Chargers -2.5 and 43.5.
• Alt is conceding only a 2.3% pressure rate, and he’s a huge upgrade over Chargers backup tackle Austin Deculus, who is surrendering a 13.1% pressure rate.
• The Vikings have a league-high 56% blitz rate that works best against rhythm-dependent or short-armed QBs by overwhelming processing time. However, Herbert is the opposite type of quarterback, ranking 9th relatively versus the blitz compared to a standard pass rush. In 2023, Herbert averaged just 2.19 seconds to throw against Minnesota’s blitzes (on 42 dropbacks), completing 80% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt.
• The Los Angeles defense is allowing a 49% success rate over the past four weeks (25th) after conceding a league-low 35% success rate in the first three games. The lack of talent is catching up to defensive coordinator Jesse Minter as opposing offenses get more film to find ways to attack his disguised coverages.
• The Chargers have an 83% zone coverage rate (6th-highest), and they will struggle versus a Vikings offense averaging 12% more yards per attempt against zone coverage compared to man coverage.
• Minnesota LT Christian Darrisaw is trending towards missing this game, and he’s worth a point.
• Our model favors the Chargers by 5.3 points, with a predicted total of 47.1 points, and Los Angeles applies to a 32-4-2 ATS Thursday night bounce-back situation that is based on their loss to the Colts.

LA Chargers are a 1-Star Best Bet at -2.5 -120 odds or better (Strong Opinion at -3 -115 or better).

The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 44 points or less (Strong Opinion at 44.5 points).