Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Over (59.5 -105) – Ohio (-11.5)  41   EASTERN MICHIGAN  27

Ohio is averaging a very good 6.5 yards per play this season with quarterback Parker Navarro in the game and the Bobcats have been 0.2 yards per play better than average after adjusting for opposing defenses faced. Today the Bobcats can feast on a horrible Eastern Michigan defense that’s allowed an average of 33 points on 456 total yards per game at 6.7 yppl despite facing a schedule of teams that would combine to average only 17 points and 4.9 yppl against an average FBS defense. The best 3 offensive teams that Eastern Michigan has faced are Texas State, Kentucky and Miami-Ohio and those 3 opponents scored 52 points, 48 points, and 44 points against the Eagles and collectively rate a bit worse than Ohio’s offensive rating. Ohio’s offense is 1.0 yppl better than the average offensive rating of the teams that Eastern Michigan has faced and has given up 33 points per game to (in regulation). Ohio should get to 40 points in this game.

Eastern Michigan has been a bit worse than average offensively, averaging 5.6 yppl (excluding garbage time) against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team, but Ohio’s defense has been 1.3 yppl worse than average, allowing 6.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defense. Ohio has only allowed 25.3 points per game, which is a bit lucky. The Bobcats have experienced positive variance in third-down defense (only 33.0% conversions) and in points per redzone opportunity allowed (4.0 PPRZ). The national averages are 39% and 4.9 PPRZ and a defense as bad as Ohio’s defense should not be allowing that much less than the national averages in third-down conversion rate and points per redzone opportunity allowed. Last season, under the same defensive coordinator the Bobcats allowed 37.4% on third downs and 4.5 PPRZ with a much better defense that allowed just 4.9 yppl.

My math model is projecting 992 yards of total offense at 7.4 yppl after factoring in the good weather (2 mph winds), which equates to 74 total points. However, if I assume that Ohio’s defensive third downs and PPRZ metrics are real rather than randomly good, then I can use a compensated points model.

Eastern Michigan has averaged a total of 56.4 points in regulation to a schedule of teams that have combined to average just 46.4 points per game in regulation.

Ohio has averaged 54.7 total points per game against teams that have combined to average just 48.7 points per game in regulation.

Eastern Michigan games have been 10.0 points higher scoring than their opponents’ average total while Ohio’s games have been 6.0 points higher scoring than their opponents’ average total. The average total points in regulation is 52.3 and 16.0 more than that gets us to 68.3 points. Another 1.8 for weather conditions (relative to the average conditions so far this season for these two teams) gets us to 70 points.

The total on this game is way too low even if Ohio continues to play better than expected on third downs and in the red zone. Ohio is likely to play better defensively than they have so far this season, but my preseason ratings would have projected 59 total points in this matchup with Ohio’s defense projected to be just 0.4 yppl worse than average. At this point in the season, my season to date model (projecting 74.0 points) carries more weight than my preseason priors and I get a blended prediction of 68 total points.

The Over is a Strong Opinion at 61 points or less.