Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Auburn Team Total Under (20.5 -115) – OKLAHOMA (-6.5)  26   Auburn  14

Alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is Oklahoma (-6.5 -115) at -7 or less

The failure of Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold at Oklahoma last season was written off by many as an issue with the system or with the wide receiver injuries the Sooners suffered through, but it’s become apparent that Arnold is just not an effective passer.

Arnold averaged a pathetic 3.8 yards on 260 pass plays against FBS teams last season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback). That -1.8 yppp rating put Arnold in between Kennesaw State and Kent State in my passing ratings last season. Surely, Oklahoma’s backup wide receivers are better than Kennesaw State’s and Kent State’s starting wide receivers, which would put most of the blame on Arnold for the disastrous offense at Oklahoma last season.

Arnold has performed better with Auburn this season but he’s still averaging only 6.2 yppp despite facing 3 teams that would allow 7.3 yppp to an average quarterback. The issue is that Arnold doesn’t connect downfield to Auburn’s speedy receivers. Arnold has averaged only 10.4 yards per completion this season, which is only slightly better than his 10.1 ypc average on 246 career completions.

Oklahoma’s defense has only allowed 46.5% completions and 7.7 yards per completions in 3 games, including just 5.5 yppp to Michigan (which rates at 1.1 yppp better than average passing), so I expect Arnold to struggle even more in the pass game. Arnold and the Tigers have run the ball well (6.8 yards per rushing play) but the sooners are 1.0 yards per rushing play better than average defending the run so consistent success running the ball is unlikely – especially with the Sooners stacking the box without fear of Arnold beating them with downfield passes.

Oklahoma’s new offense hasn’t been quite as good as I had expected but the Sooners have been 0.6 yards per play better than average on that side of the ball and should score enough points against a good Auburn defense (I rate that unit at 0.9 yppl better than average) to win by more than a touchdown.

There is value on Oklahoma -6.5, but all that value is on Auburn’s offense scoring less than expected. Using this year’s games only would project just 11.0 points for the Tigers and my updated ratings project 15.0 points – which included an adjustment for worse than average scoring conditions (grass field, 10 mph winds and 25% to 30% rain expectancy).

Strong Opinion on Auburn’s Team Total under 20 points or more or Under 20.5 to -125 odds. The alternate play is Oklahoma at -7 or less.