Chicago Bears @

Green Bay Packers

Sun, Jan 5
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 339
Odds: Green Bay Packers -10, Total: 41

Game Analysis

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GREEN BAY (-10) vs Chicago

  • Green Bay is in the playoffs and they can capture the 6 seed with a win combined with a Washington loss.
  • Jordan Love has a favorable matchup as the Packers are averaging a league-high 40% more yards per attempt versus zone coverage compared to man coverage and the Bears have an 84% zone coverage rate (3rd-highest).
  • Chicago’s defense is surrendering a 58% success rate to opposing tight ends (26th) and they will struggle versus TE Tucker Kraft, who is averaging 0.60 EPA/target (3rd).
  • The Bears offense is broken as Caleb Williams holds onto the ball too long behind an offensive line missing its starters on the entire left side.
  • Chicago is surrendering 3.3 sacks per game in the four weeks without starting LT Braxton Jones.
  • Our model makes Green Bay a 10.0-point favorite, with a predicted total of 42.6 points. I used Chicago in my pool (would have used GB at -9.5)
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