Stanford @

California

Sat, Nov 23
ACC Network
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 179
Odds: California -14, Total: 54

Game Analysis

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Lean – CALIFORNIA (-14)  33   Stanford  15

Cal has 5 losses by an average margin of just 3.4 points, and the Bears come into this game frustrated by an upset loss to Syracuse. Stanford, meanwhile, is coming off an upset win as a HUGE underdog to Louisville and the Cardinal apply to a 38-99-5 ATS letdown situation based on that high-scoring upset win.

Cal should move the ball well against a bad Stanford defense that’s given up 37.7 points per game and the Bears’ opportunistic defense (17 interceptions and 0.6 yards per play better than average) should control a Cardinal attack that’s averaged only 20 points per game and rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average with QB Ashton Daniels in the game.

My math model gives Cal a 54% chance to cover and that’s worthy a Lean at -14 or less. If the line goes up then you look to see if Stanford’s win total under 20 points or more is available.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Stanford
  • California
STAN
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 32.9 31.2
  • Run Yards 164.8 169.0
  • YPRP 5.0 5.4




Pass





  • Pass Comp 17.3 20.6
  • Pass Att 30.0 31.0
  • Comp % 57.8% 66.3%
  • Pass Yards 174.0 275.7
  • Sacks 3.9 1.9
  • Sack Yards 23.4 10.7
  • Sack % 11.5% 5.7%
  • Pass Plays 33.9 32.9
  • Net Pass Yards 150.6 265.0
  • YPPP 4.4 8.1

Total

  • Total Plays 66.8 64.1
  • Total Yards 315.3 434.0
  • YPPL 4.7 6.8

TO


  • Int 1.6 0.7
  • Int % 5.2% 2.2%
  • Fumbles 0.4 0.7
  • Turnovers 2.0 1.3
 
  • Points 22.2 34.6
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