Game Analysis
Lean – CALIFORNIA (-14) 33 Stanford 15
Cal has 5 losses by an average margin of just 3.4 points, and the Bears come into this game frustrated by an upset loss to Syracuse. Stanford, meanwhile, is coming off an upset win as a HUGE underdog to Louisville and the Cardinal apply to a 38-99-5 ATS letdown situation based on that high-scoring upset win.
Cal should move the ball well against a bad Stanford defense that’s given up 37.7 points per game and the Bears’ opportunistic defense (17 interceptions and 0.6 yards per play better than average) should control a Cardinal attack that’s averaged only 20 points per game and rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average with QB Ashton Daniels in the game.
My math model gives Cal a 54% chance to cover and that’s worthy a Lean at -14 or less. If the line goes up then you look to see if Stanford’s win total under 20 points or more is available.
Rush
-
Run Plays
32.9
31.2
-
Run Yards
164.8
169.0
-
YPRP
5.0
5.4
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.3
20.6
-
Pass Att
30.0
31.0
-
Comp %
57.8%
66.3%
-
Pass Yards
174.0
275.7
-
Sacks
3.9
1.9
-
Sack Yards
23.4
10.7
-
Sack %
11.5%
5.7%
-
Pass Plays
33.9
32.9
-
Net Pass Yards
150.6
265.0
-
YPPP
4.4
8.1
Total
-
Total Plays
66.8
64.1
-
Total Yards
315.3
434.0
-
YPPL
4.7
6.8
TO
-
Int
1.6
0.7
-
Int %
5.2%
2.2%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.7
-
Turnovers
2.0
1.3
Rush
-
Run Plays
29.1
28.5
-
Run Yards
144.2
127.8
-
YPRP
5.0
4.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
24.5
20.4
-
Pass Att
35.9
35.9
-
Comp %
68.2%
56.8%
-
Pass Yards
275.7
236.9
-
Sacks
3.5
3.0
-
Sack Yards
20.1
18.8
-
Sack %
8.9%
7.7%
-
Pass Plays
39.4
38.9
-
Net Pass Yards
255.6
218.1
-
YPPP
6.5
5.6
Total
-
Total Plays
68.5
67.4
-
Total Yards
399.8
345.9
-
YPPL
5.8
5.1
TO
-
Int
0.6
1.7
-
Int %
1.7%
4.7%
-
Fumbles
0.2
0.5
-
Turnovers
0.8
2.2
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/30/24 TCU |
27-34 |
+9.0
W
|
32/30 |
150/118 |
4.7/3.9 |
0/2 |
18/28 |
36/42 |
132/340 |
1/0 |
4/1 |
3.3/7.9 |
282/458 |
3.9/6.3 |
09/07/24 Cal Poly |
41-7 |
0.0
W
|
31/18 |
127/45 |
4.1/2.5 |
1/0 |
25/20 |
30/30 |
280/171 |
0/1 |
1/1 |
9.0/5.5 |
407/216 |
6.6/4.4 |
09/20/24 @ Syracuse |
26-24 |
+8.5
W
|
31/13 |
181/53 |
5.8/4.1 |
0/0 |
23/27 |
38/42 |
170/312 |
2/2 |
1/4 |
4.4/6.8 |
351/365 |
5.0/6.2 |
09/28/24 @ Clemson |
14-40 |
+21.5
L
|
40/29 |
256/158 |
6.4/5.4 |
0/0 |
13/15 |
27/31 |
106/247 |
3/1 |
4/1 |
3.4/7.7 |
362/405 |
5.1/6.6 |
10/05/24 Virginia Tech |
7-31 |
+9.5
L
|
36/35 |
164/141 |
4.6/4.0 |
1/0 |
14/14 |
25/19 |
94/196 |
1/0 |
5/1 |
3.1/9.8 |
258/337 |
3.9/6.1 |
10/12/24 @ Notre Dame |
7-49 |
+23.0
L
|
36/38 |
150/234 |
4.2/6.2 |
1/1 |
10/19 |
17/27 |
58/259 |
0/0 |
5/1 |
2.6/9.3 |
208/493 |
3.6/7.5 |
10/19/24 SMU |
10-40 |
+16.5
L
|
29/34 |
60/195 |
2.1/5.7 |
0/2 |
18/17 |
37/27 |
146/290 |
2/1 |
6/3 |
3.4/9.7 |
206/485 |
2.9/7.6 |
10/26/24 Wake Forest |
24-27 |
+3.0
T
|
24/39 |
141/193 |
5.9/4.9 |
1/1 |
29/20 |
40/30 |
223/229 |
3/1 |
2/4 |
5.3/6.7 |
364/422 |
5.5/5.8 |
11/02/24 @ No Carolina St. |
28-59 |
+9.5
L
|
36/37 |
269/262 |
7.5/7.1 |
1/0 |
8/19 |
16/22 |
132/242 |
1/0 |
3/2 |
6.9/10.1 |
401/504 |
7.3/8.3 |
11/16/24 Louisville |
38-35 |
+21.0
W
|
32/26 |
112/167 |
3.5/6.4 |
0/0 |
23/26 |
34/39 |
294/270 |
1/1 |
5/0 |
7.5/6.9 |
406/437 |
5.7/6.7 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/31/24 UC Davis |
31-13 |
0.0
W
|
35/24 |
111/84 |
3.2/3.5 |
1/0 |
19/24 |
28/48 |
191/221 |
0/3 |
1/0 |
6.6/4.6 |
302/305 |
4.7/4.2 |
09/07/24 @ Auburn |
21-14 |
+12.0
W
|
31/26 |
111/156 |
3.6/6.0 |
0/1 |
25/14 |
36/27 |
223/139 |
0/4 |
2/4 |
5.9/4.5 |
334/295 |
4.8/5.2 |
09/14/24 San Diego St. |
31-10 |
-17.5
W
|
36/32 |
305/131 |
8.5/4.1 |
0/0 |
21/13 |
29/29 |
168/135 |
1/2 |
6/3 |
4.8/4.2 |
473/266 |
6.7/4.2 |
09/21/24 @ Florida St. |
9-14 |
+2.5
L
|
30/34 |
147/138 |
4.9/4.1 |
0/0 |
22/16 |
36/27 |
263/171 |
1/1 |
7/3 |
6.1/5.7 |
410/309 |
5.6/4.8 |
10/05/24 Miami Fla |
38-39 |
+10.5
W
|
22/29 |
87/168 |
4.0/5.8 |
0/0 |
12/35 |
24/53 |
284/408 |
1/1 |
2/3 |
10.9/7.3 |
371/576 |
7.7/6.8 |
10/12/24 @ Pittsburgh |
15-17 |
+3.0
W
|
34/25 |
99/148 |
2.9/5.9 |
0/0 |
27/14 |
37/28 |
236/118 |
0/2 |
6/2 |
5.5/3.9 |
335/266 |
4.4/4.8 |
10/19/24 No Carolina St. |
23-24 |
-9.5
L
|
25/23 |
149/63 |
6.0/2.7 |
1/2 |
30/26 |
42/37 |
250/301 |
0/0 |
4/6 |
5.4/7.0 |
399/364 |
5.6/5.5 |
10/26/24 Oregon St. |
44-7 |
-10.5
W
|
32/26 |
118/75 |
3.7/2.9 |
0/1 |
27/14 |
37/28 |
364/135 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
9.8/4.7 |
482/210 |
7.0/3.8 |
11/08/24 @ Wake Forest |
46-36 |
-7.0
W
|
27/32 |
131/160 |
4.9/5.0 |
0/1 |
40/19 |
56/36 |
370/226 |
1/3 |
3/7 |
6.3/5.3 |
501/386 |
5.8/5.1 |
11/16/24 Syracuse |
25-33 |
-7.0
L
|
19/34 |
184/155 |
9.7/4.6 |
0/0 |
22/29 |
34/46 |
207/327 |
2/0 |
4/1 |
5.4/7.0 |
391/482 |
6.9/6.0 |