Syracuse @

California

Sat, Nov 16
The CW
12:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 371
Odds: California -7, Total: 57.5

Game Analysis

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Note: This play has moved out of range and Cal would be a Lean at -10 or less.

1-Star Best Bet – *CALIFORNIA (-7)  32   Syracuse  18

Lean – Under (57.5)

Cal is 5-4 and their 4 losses have been by an average of just 2.3 points and had they not blown that 25-point lead against Miami and changed field-goal kickers earlier in the season  (the new PK is 10 of 11 on field-goals) then the Bears would likely be 7-2 and ranked in the top-20. Basically, Cal is a better team than their 5-4 record suggests.

The Bears have been mediocre offensively because they keep trying to hand pre-season All-ACC RB Jaydn Ott the ball despite his 2.4 ypr average on 71 runs. It’s pretty clear that Jet Thomas (503 yards at 6.1 ypr) should get the bulk of the carries but I’ll assume that they’ll continue to give the ball to Ott 1o to 12 times a game. That could work, as Ott was clearly not 100% earlier in the year and is supposedly healthy now and should certainly be better than 2.4 ypr going forward. Cal is 0.1 yppl worse than average on offense due to Ott dragging them down but there is room for improvement and Syracuse has been 0.4 yards per rushing play worse than average defending the run and 0.3 yppp worse than average against the pass.

Cal’s advantage is their top-notch defense against an overrated Syracuse offense that has been just average on a compensated yards per play basis (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team). Syracuse does convert on a high percentage of 3rd-downs (49.7%), so the Orange offense is better than average overall, but the Cal defense has been good on 3rd-downs (33.6%) and the Bears have been good overall defensively, having allowed just 19.3 points per game and 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team.

I do have Syracuse running 9 more plays than the Cal offense but the Bears are projected to have a 6.0 yppl to 4.6 yppl advantage in this game and throwing the ball around 50 times per game against a ball-hawking Cal defense (5.4% interception rate) is likely to lead to multiple turnovers for the Orange (I project 1.7 interceptions and 0.5 fumbles).

California is a 1-Star Best Bet at -7 -120 or better.

 

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Syracuse
  • California
SYR
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 27.1 29.1
  • Run Yards 113.8 169.2
  • YPRP 4.2 5.8




Pass





  • Pass Comp 30.9 18.1
  • Pass Att 48.3 27.0
  • Comp % 63.9% 67.1%
  • Pass Yards 352.0 199.9
  • Sacks 2.2 2.2
  • Sack Yards 19.6 13.7
  • Sack % 4.4% 7.6%
  • Pass Plays 50.6 29.2
  • Net Pass Yards 332.4 186.2
  • YPPP 6.6 6.4

Total

  • Total Plays 77.7 58.3
  • Total Yards 446.2 355.5
  • YPPL 5.7 6.1

TO


  • Int 1.3 0.8
  • Int % 2.8% 2.9%
  • Fumbles 0.2 0.4
  • Turnovers 1.6 1.2
 
  • Points 31.7 28.6
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