Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – SOUTH FLORIDA (+3.5)  28   Navy  26

South Florida’s biggest issue this season has been their pass defense but Navy’s run-heavy option offense is not going to take full advantage of the Bulls’ weakness while playing into their defensive strength instead. USF is good defending the run, having yielded just 5.0 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 5.5 yprp against an average defense. Not all good run defenses are good at defending the option but the coaching staff did a decent job of defending Navy last season in a 14-point win.

With Navy’s offense not taking advantage of USF’s defensive liability, it is now the Midshipmen’s defense that is the worst unit on the field, as that unit has been 0.6 yards per play worse than average this season (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 5.1 yppl against an average team). USF is not great on offense (-0.5 yppl for the season) and I rate that unit at -1.0 yppl with Bryce Archie at quarterback, but they should be good enough to keep up with Navy’s offense. It’s also possible that starting QB Byrum Brown comes back this week, as he’s been upgraded to questionable.

I favor Navy by just 1 point with Archie at quarterback and USF applies to a 119-55-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation. I’d favor the Bulls by 3 points if Brown comes back healthy so we could end up with more value than anticipated when this play was made (I had assumed that Archie would be the quarterback when this play was released).

South Florida is a Strong Opinion at +3 or more.