Game Analysis

Lean – Boise State (-20.5)  42   HAWAII  17

Boise State has the best running back in the nation in Ashton Jeanty, who has run for 1031 yards at 10.9 yards per rush in basically 4 games (he sat out the second half in two games). People that say he’s putting up those numbers against weak teams obviously don’t know what they’re talking about, as Jeanty ran for 192 yards at 7.7 ypr against an elite Oregon defense and also tallied 259 yards at 10.0 ypr against Washington State, who is still playing at the level of a Power conference team.

Hawaii defends the run pretty well, but they’re horrible against the pass and Boise has a very good pass attack to go along with Jeanty’s running. The Broncos have scored a minimum of 45 points against every team except Oregon, who they lost to 34-37 as a 21-point underdog and they should approach that number even with the steady winds expected in Honolulu on Saturday night.

The wind will affect Hawaii even more, as they Warriors throw the ball nearly 70% of their plays. Hawaii throws the ball a lot but they’re not good at it, as they’ve been 1.7 yards per pass play worse than average after adjusting for opposing defenses (even after taking out their horrible passing in week 1 against New Hampshire – a game played in very heavy winds). I project only 4.6 yards per play for the home team in this game, which won’t be enough to keep up with Boise’s explosive and balanced attack.

Boise is a Lean at -21 or less.