Game Analysis

SEATTLE (-4.5) vs Miami

• Tua Tagovailoa will be out indefinitely after sustaining another concussion. Tagovailoa has averaged 0.17 EPA/play (8th) with head coach Mike McDaniel. Dolphins’ backup quarterback Skylar Thompson is averaging -0.27 EPA/play in the same offense, ranking 67th out of 72 qualifying quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks since 2022. Miami’s offense will drop 4.2 points according to our numbers.
• Running back De’Von Achane led the Dolphins in both rushing (96 yards) and receiving (69 yards) last week versus the Bills while also forcing 0.31 missed tackles per touch. Miami’s offense will need a healthy dose of Achane again in this game with the backup quarterback. Seattle’s defense has allowed only 20 yards from 14 targets to running backs in the first two weeks but starting LB Jerome Baker suffered a hamstring injury last game and McDaniel can pick on Seahawks backup rookie linebacker Tyrice Knight.
• I believe All-Pro WR Tyreek Hill will be contained on Sunday as Seattle nickelback Devon Witherspoon is conceding 0.42 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th) and CB Tariq Woolen ran an official 4.26-second 40-yard dash at the 2022 combine. Woolen is conceding 0.09 yards per cover snap (9th).
• Thompson will instead look for Miami WR Jaylen Waddle, whose 61% success rate last year ranked 2nd in the NFL.
• Miami LT Terron Armstead was not 100 percent last week and left the field a few times to get a shoulder harness worked on. Armstead ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency and I’m counting him in at this moment. I’m also counting in Seahawks edge defender Boye Mafe, who will line up across from Armstead. Mafe suffered a minor knee injury late in the game against New England but should be in uniform this week and he ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency.
• Seattle’s interior defenders Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy have combined for 17 pressures, and they will collapse the pocket for Thompson. Dolphins starting guard Isaiah Wynn conceded only a 1.9% pressure rate last season, but he is out and backup Liam Eichenberg is allowing a 4.0% pressure rate since the start of 2023.
• The Seahawks have protection issues of their own without starting RT Abe Lucas and backup George Fant. Seattle 3rd-string RT Stone Forsythe ranks 6th-worst in pass blocking efficiency.
• Geno Smith was in empty formations on 32% of his dropbacks last week to make New England’s pass rush more predictable to cover for the offensive line.
• Miami’s pass rush was suspect coming into the year after losing after losing 181 pressures from defensive linemen Andrew Van Ginkel, Bradley Chubb, and Christian Wilkins but the Dolphins have 41.3% pressure rate this season (4th).
• However, Miami’s defense has a 37.0% blitz rate (7th-highest) and new Seattle offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb seems to have solved Smith’s problem versus the blitz.
• Smith’s yards per attempt against the blitz was 0.7 lower than when opposing defenses didn’t send extra pass rushers last season. Smith is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt versus blitz this year (3rd).
• Seahawks wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will be limited on the outside by Pro Bowl CB Jalen Ramsey and CB Kendall Fuller, who has conceded 0.39 yards per cover snap (12th).
• Dolphins nickelback Kader Kohou is surrendering 2.03 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd-worst) and he will struggle across from WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has a 72% success rate (4th).
• Our model makes Seattle a 6.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 42.3.