Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – ATLANTA (-6.5) over Detroit
Jared Goff is unlikely to be cleared to play by Sunday and Tim Boyle is expected to earn his second start of the season. Boyle averaged just 3.3 yppp versus the Browns and he is about 4 points worse than Goff. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 11.7 targets per game the last three weeks and Boyle will look for him on the inside as Falcons nickelback Darren Hall is surrendering 2.05 yards per route run in the slot.
Atlanta’s ground game ranks 31st and the Lions have the 5th-rated rush defense so it will all be on Matt Ryan’s shoulders this week for the Falcons to keep their playoff hopes alive. LT Jake Matthews is conceding only a 3.8% pressure rate and he will shut down Detroit edge defender Charles Harris, who ranks 19th in pass rushing efficiency. Lions’ linebacker Alex Anzalone will not play again this season because of a right shoulder injury he sustained in the win over Arizona. Detroit backup LB Derrick Barnes is surrendering 2.15 yards per cover snap, and we should see plenty of Cordarrelle Patterson, who is leading all running backs with 2.46 yards per route run.
Our model makes Atlanta a 7.1-point favorite, with a predicted total of 41.2 points. That’s not a lot of line value but the matchups favor Atlanta and the Lions apply to a 38-97-4 ATS road underdog letdown situation based on last week’s upset win over Arizona. The Lions were in that same situation two weeks ago in Denver, a 10-38 loss, after upsetting the Vikings the prior week. Atlanta is a Strong Opinion at -6.5 -115 odds or better.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.43
31.87
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.6%
47.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.7%
4.6%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.1%
20.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.4%
42.6%
-
NYPP
5.38
7.25
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.71
28.80
-
RB YPR
4.47
4.10
-
Stuff Rate
26.0%
23.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.5%
51.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.6%
40.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.48
4.28
Game
-
All Snaps
62.14
60.67
-
Early Down Succ
50.9%
51.7%
-
Succ Rate
46.0%
49.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.1%
41.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.02
5.84
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.89
29.27
-
Run Ratio
39.8%
47.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-4.62
4.62
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.29
36.29
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.0%
51.0%
-
Sack Rate
5.6%
3.1%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.2%
17.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.5%
31.5%
-
NYPP
6.02
6.80
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.36
28.29
-
RB YPR
3.70
3.96
-
Stuff Rate
26.7%
19.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.6%
53.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.6%
32.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.65
4.25
Game
-
All Snaps
61.64
64.57
-
Early Down Succ
45.1%
54.0%
-
Succ Rate
43.5%
52.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.0%
31.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.08
5.68
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.53
28.41
-
Run Ratio
39.5%
43.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-2.18
2.18
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SF |
33 – 41 L |
-9.15 |
41.7% /
55.6% |
5.0% /
3.7% |
1.8% /
0.0% |
5.23 /
11.52 |
50.0% /
39.3% |
20.8% /
32.1% |
4.83 /
4.68 |
84 /
55 |
50.0% /
51.1% |
44.0% /
47.3% |
49.3% /
57.6% |
5.12 /
8.04 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
28.6% /
50.9% |
28.00 /
31.25 |
| 2 |
@GB |
17 – 35 L |
-3.29 |
54.1% /
60.0% |
2.7% /
10.0% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
6.38 /
7.57 |
57.9% /
41.9% |
10.5% /
25.8% |
5.68 /
3.10 |
56 /
61 |
60.0% /
51.0% |
55.4% /
50.8% |
41.0% /
26.8% |
6.14 /
5.30 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
50.8% |
25.67 /
31.90 |
| 3 |
BLT |
17 – 19 L |
-4.64 |
54.5% /
37.1% |
6.1% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
5.82 /
7.74 |
40.7% /
54.5% |
33.3% /
22.7% |
3.44 /
5.27 |
60 /
57 |
52.0% /
53.5% |
48.3% /
43.9% |
31.3% /
57.3% |
4.75 /
6.79 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.0% /
38.6% |
25.00 /
26.20 |
| 4 |
@CHI |
14 – 24 L |
-11.79 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
9.5% /
5.6% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
6.14 /
10.28 |
52.0% /
53.8% |
20.0% /
23.1% |
3.60 /
4.82 |
67 /
57 |
56.9% /
59.6% |
50.7% /
52.6% |
40.1% /
65.5% |
5.19 /
6.54 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
68.4% |
32.44 /
16.40 |
| 5 |
@MIN |
17 – 19 L |
-4.04 |
41.0% /
47.2% |
10.3% /
5.6% |
2.9% /
2.9% |
4.62 /
7.33 |
54.2% /
35.7% |
25.0% /
35.7% |
4.50 /
4.29 |
63 /
64 |
53.1% /
44.9% |
46.0% /
42.2% |
25.1% /
35.2% |
4.57 /
6.00 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
38.1% /
43.8% |
30.55 /
25.58 |
| 6 |
CIN |
11 – 34 L |
-13.06 |
46.5% /
50.0% |
2.3% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
4.47 /
8.00 |
33.3% /
55.6% |
38.9% /
16.7% |
2.00 /
3.94 |
61 /
68 |
45.5% /
52.0% |
42.6% /
52.9% |
13.9% /
49.0% |
3.74 /
5.85 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.5% /
52.9% |
27.00 /
30.36 |
| 7 |
@LA |
19 – 28 L |
1.35 |
46.2% /
54.8% |
5.1% /
2.4% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
7.13 /
7.79 |
42.9% /
36.8% |
25.0% /
31.6% |
4.89 /
2.47 |
67 /
61 |
45.8% /
44.7% |
44.8% /
49.2% |
52.1% /
44.4% |
6.19 /
6.13 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.8% /
31.1% |
29.89 /
23.22 |
| 8 |
PHI |
6 – 44 L |
-18.08 |
40.0% /
43.8% |
15.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.28 /
7.13 |
44.4% /
63.0% |
27.8% /
17.4% |
3.17 /
5.13 |
58 /
62 |
47.2% /
59.6% |
41.4% /
58.1% |
12.2% /
36.3% |
3.93 /
5.65 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
31.0% /
74.2% |
29.80 /
33.11 |
| 10 |
@PIT |
16 – 16 T |
-0.63 |
24.1% /
38.0% |
13.8% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
2.66 /
4.84 |
38.5% /
45.2% |
25.6% /
16.1% |
5.87 /
4.32 |
68 /
81 |
34.8% /
42.2% |
32.4% /
40.7% |
61.2% /
27.9% |
4.50 /
4.64 |
0.0% /
2.5% |
57.4% /
38.3% |
29.93 /
28.21 |
| 11 |
@CLV |
10 – 13 L |
-5.90 |
30.4% /
33.3% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
8.7% /
6.9% |
3.35 /
5.50 |
47.8% /
52.8% |
26.1% /
19.4% |
7.30 /
5.11 |
46 /
66 |
42.9% /
45.3% |
39.1% /
43.9% |
59.6% /
58.3% |
5.33 /
5.29 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
54.5% |
31.36 /
21.64 |
| 12 |
CHI |
14 – 16 L |
0.63 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
3.8% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
6.27 /
7.75 |
47.4% /
34.5% |
31.6% /
41.4% |
4.00 /
2.34 |
45 /
69 |
52.9% /
45.5% |
48.9% /
43.5% |
27.9% /
25.2% |
5.31 /
5.48 |
2.2% /
0.0% |
42.2% /
42.0% |
23.22 /
29.40 |
| 13 |
MIN |
29 – 27 W |
4.06 |
54.5% /
47.7% |
6.8% /
6.8% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
6.18 /
7.41 |
55.6% /
63.0% |
25.9% /
18.5% |
3.70 /
3.70 |
71 /
71 |
63.2% /
58.2% |
54.9% /
53.5% |
37.4% /
28.2% |
5.24 /
6.00 |
1.4% /
1.4% |
38.0% /
38.0% |
26.58 /
36.33 |
| 14 |
@DEN |
10 – 38 L |
-12.26 |
46.3% /
57.7% |
4.9% /
3.8% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
4.83 /
6.69 |
57.1% /
71.8% |
14.3% /
12.8% |
5.00 /
4.72 |
62 /
65 |
57.1% /
66.7% |
50.0% /
66.2% |
17.2% /
32.2% |
4.89 /
5.51 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
60.0% |
27.11 /
30.11 |
| 15 |
ARZ |
30 – 12 W |
12.13 |
53.6% /
48.1% |
7.1% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
7.57 /
5.63 |
38.2% /
57.1% |
35.3% /
23.8% |
3.71 /
5.00 |
62 /
73 |
45.7% /
52.7% |
45.2% /
50.7% |
32.7% /
36.8% |
5.45 /
5.45 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
54.8% /
28.8% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
PHI |
6 – 32 L |
-7.50 |
39.5% /
55.6% |
7.9% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.58 /
7.25 |
42.3% /
58.1% |
26.9% /
12.9% |
4.77 /
5.58 |
64 /
67 |
47.8% /
61.5% |
40.6% /
56.7% |
24.3% /
35.5% |
4.06 /
6.48 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.6% /
46.3% |
20.00 /
35.00 |
| 2 |
@TB |
25 – 48 L |
-9.88 |
46.9% /
48.7% |
2.0% /
7.7% |
6.3% /
0.0% |
5.98 /
6.64 |
30.0% /
57.1% |
40.0% /
28.6% |
2.75 /
3.90 |
69 /
60 |
44.0% /
57.8% |
42.0% /
51.7% |
35.5% /
44.1% |
5.04 /
5.68 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
29.0% /
35.0% |
27.29 /
39.75 |
| 3 |
@NYG |
17 – 14 W |
-2.05 |
41.0% /
51.4% |
7.7% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.82 /
6.65 |
30.0% /
55.6% |
15.0% /
29.6% |
3.45 /
3.70 |
59 /
64 |
38.6% /
56.3% |
37.3% /
53.1% |
42.0% /
20.8% |
5.02 /
5.41 |
1.7% /
1.6% |
33.9% /
42.2% |
29.40 /
22.40 |
| 4 |
WAS |
30 – 34 L |
3.18 |
51.2% /
52.9% |
2.3% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.40 /
8.53 |
39.3% /
53.6% |
21.4% /
21.4% |
3.54 /
4.36 |
71 /
62 |
41.8% /
56.0% |
46.5% /
53.2% |
30.4% /
46.4% |
5.27 /
6.65 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.4% /
45.2% |
25.10 /
27.89 |
| 5 |
NYJ |
27 – 20 W |
9.52 |
54.3% /
41.2% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
7.43 /
4.88 |
44.8% /
72.2% |
17.2% /
11.1% |
3.72 /
3.56 |
75 /
52 |
46.7% /
55.0% |
50.7% /
51.9% |
27.1% /
27.3% |
6.00 /
4.42 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
34.6% |
29.20 /
28.11 |
| 7 |
@MIA |
30 – 28 W |
2.83 |
51.2% /
58.5% |
2.4% /
2.4% |
2.5% /
5.0% |
7.93 /
6.85 |
36.4% /
51.7% |
13.6% /
10.3% |
3.27 /
4.55 |
63 /
70 |
46.9% /
55.2% |
46.0% /
55.7% |
52.0% /
12.5% |
6.30 /
5.90 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
41.4% |
29.18 /
31.90 |
| 8 |
CAR |
13 – 19 L |
0.36 |
43.3% /
40.0% |
10.0% /
0.0% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
4.37 /
5.16 |
45.0% /
59.6% |
25.0% /
17.0% |
4.10 /
4.32 |
50 /
72 |
47.4% /
50.9% |
44.0% /
52.8% |
14.0% /
26.5% |
4.26 /
4.61 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
40.0% /
65.3% |
31.10 /
27.45 |
| 9 |
@NO |
27 – 25 W |
6.11 |
56.3% /
50.0% |
6.3% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.38 /
6.07 |
16.0% /
44.0% |
44.0% /
16.0% |
1.36 /
4.36 |
57 /
69 |
40.5% /
52.6% |
38.6% /
47.8% |
54.6% /
23.5% |
6.42 /
5.45 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
43.9% /
36.2% |
29.27 /
33.20 |
| 10 |
@DAL |
3 – 43 L |
-23.04 |
31.0% /
57.1% |
6.9% /
0.0% |
11.1% /
0.0% |
3.83 /
9.06 |
41.7% /
43.2% |
20.8% /
21.6% |
4.29 /
3.08 |
53 /
72 |
46.2% /
49.1% |
35.8% /
50.0% |
26.5% /
30.2% |
4.04 /
5.99 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
45.3% /
51.4% |
26.75 /
29.73 |
| 11 |
NE |
0 – 25 L |
-9.70 |
41.7% /
51.7% |
11.1% /
10.3% |
12.5% /
3.8% |
3.47 /
6.00 |
31.3% /
50.0% |
43.8% /
33.3% |
2.50 /
4.47 |
52 /
59 |
45.9% /
57.8% |
38.5% /
50.8% |
11.1% /
25.5% |
3.17 /
5.22 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.8% /
50.8% |
21.45 /
33.00 |
| 12 |
@JAX |
21 – 14 W |
8.35 |
53.3% /
37.2% |
3.3% /
2.3% |
3.4% /
2.4% |
6.10 /
5.02 |
51.7% /
67.9% |
17.2% /
7.1% |
5.14 /
5.04 |
59 /
71 |
56.5% /
50.0% |
52.5% /
49.3% |
30.7% /
39.0% |
5.63 /
5.03 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
49.2% /
39.4% |
30.70 /
24.10 |
| 13 |
TB |
17 – 30 L |
-5.84 |
52.2% /
56.9% |
10.9% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
5.63 /
7.22 |
47.8% /
41.2% |
34.8% /
17.6% |
5.26 /
3.35 |
69 /
68 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
50.7% /
52.9% |
34.9% /
29.2% |
5.51 /
6.25 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
25.0% |
23.33 /
21.70 |
| 14 |
@CAR |
29 – 21 W |
4.93 |
35.7% /
55.6% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
6.79 /
6.75 |
47.2% /
42.3% |
27.8% /
26.9% |
3.56 /
3.50 |
64 /
62 |
37.5% /
54.2% |
42.2% /
50.0% |
38.7% /
27.9% |
4.97 /
5.39 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
56.3% /
41.9% |
36.80 /
26.70 |
| 15 |
@SF |
13 – 31 L |
-7.76 |
37.1% /
54.2% |
8.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.09 /
9.79 |
39.1% /
50.0% |
34.8% /
15.6% |
2.70 /
5.06 |
58 /
56 |
41.5% /
51.1% |
37.9% /
51.8% |
46.6% /
55.7% |
4.74 /
7.09 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
39.7% /
57.1% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
Detroit Lions
@ 
Atlanta Falcons