Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – UNDER (59.5) – FRESNO ST (-30)  41   Unlv  10

Fresno State’s Jake Haener has been incredible and last week’s gutsy comeback win at UCLA must have certainly got the attention of NFL scouts that already had their eye on the former highly recruited Washington backup. Haener has completed 73.6% of his passes and averaged 9.4 yards per pass play and UNLV certainly won’t be able to stop the Bulldogs aerial attack when they decide to throw. However, I just don’t see the Fresno coaching staff leaving Haener in the game longer than they need to given his hip injury that had him hobbling late in last week’s game. And, even if Haener plays the entire game my model still doesn’t come close to 59 total points being scored in this game.

Big favorites tend to run more than they usually do, and Fresno ran 51% of the time against UConn and Cal Poly while throwing it 64% of the time against Oregon and UCLA. Haener is projected to average 9.6 yards per pass play but he won’t be throwing it nearly as much as he usually does, and perhaps even less than expected if the coaching staff wants to protect him, and the Fresno State rushing attack is below average once again this season, averaging 4.8 yards per rushing play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yprp to an average team. UNLV, meanwhile, is much better in run defense than they’ve been in recent years, as they’ve allowed a decent 5.4 yprp to 3 better than average running teams (Eastern Washington is consistently better than average on an FBS scale running the ball and Arizona State and Iowa State are also better than average running teams). Fresno State is likely to run the ball more than they throw it, as they did in their two other games as big favorites, and I don’t expect them to be too successful when they do run. I also expect Haener to not play late in this game and the backup quarterbacks averaged just 4.4 yards on 20 pass plays against UConn and Cal Poly. The Bulldogs did score 45 points against Connecticut and 63 points against Cal Poly but both of those teams are much worse than UNLV is defensively. The Rebels gave up an average of 42.5 points to good offensive teams Arizona State and Iowa State and Fresno State should score around that number of points too.

Given how bad the UNLV offense is, this game would still have a decent chance of going under even if Haener plays the entire game and Fresno scores 49 points. The Rebels have averaged only 11 points per game in regulation and got just 13 total points the last two weeks against Arizona State and Iowa State while averaging just 143 total yards and 2.8 yards per play. UNLV’s starting quarterback Doug Brumfield is expected back but his career completion percentage of 42.6% (20 of 47), including 42.3% this season, is worse than the rest of the quarterbacks and Brumfield averaged just 3.3 yards per pass play against ASU. UNLV also doesn’t run the ball effectively (4.2 yprp against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team) and they certainly won’t be able to run against a stout Fresno defensive front that’s allowed just 3.6 yprp in 4 games (to teams that would average 4.9 yprp), including giving up just 2.4 yprp to Connecticut and Cal Poly. Fresno’s pass defense rates as about average but they are more than good enough to shut down UNLV’s horrible pass attack. Fresno held bad offensive teams UConn and Cal Poly to an average of 5 points on 190 total yards and 2.8 yppl and I’d be surprised if UNLV gets more than 10 points in this game (just 6.5 ppg vs ASU and ISU). The Rebels also play at a very slow pace offensively (just 2.0 plays per minute of possession), which will shorten the game. UNLV games have averaged only 46 total points in regulation and only 49 total points per game against Arizona State and Iowa State, who are comparable to Fresno State. The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 58 points or more.