New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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BUFFALO (-6.5) vs NY Jets

Josh Allen took a step forward in 2019 but his 5.7 yards per pass play still only ranked 27th in the league and his opposing pass defenses project to be much more difficult in 2020.

Buffalo added Steffon Diggs this off-season and he’s coming off a career-high 15.6-yard average depth of target. However, Diggs may struggle to get the ball in his hands given that Josh Allen completed just 31% of his deep passes (4th-worst) while Diggs’ quarterback last season (Kirk Cousins) was above league-average with 44% completions on his deep passes in 2019.

The Jets don’t have a chance to stop anyone this year without their two best defensive players, All-Pro safety Jamal Adams (traded) and four-time Pro Bowl linebacker CJ Mosely (opted out). Bradley McDougald will replace Adams but he was a liability with 2nd-highest target rate among safeties in 2019. We have New York’s defense ranked 5th-worst.

The Bills faced the 6th-easiest schedule last year as the defense benefited from playing against a bunch of subpar quarterbacks (Eli Manning, Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota, Dwayne Haskins, Brandon Allen, and Devlin Hodges) – so that unit wasn’t as good as their raw numbers suggest.

Buffalo’s defense gets another easy matchup this week. The Jets only gained 4.7 yards per play on offense in 2019 (31st) and lost one of their best receivers, Robby Anderson (led team with 8.1 yards per target), while not adding any impact players for Sam Darnold to work with. New York was better in the games that Darnold played but the Jets should finish in the bottom 5 offensively once again.

Our model makes the Bills a 5.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 42.0 with potential high winds keeping us away from the over.

Team Stats
Game Log

Jets
Bills

NYJ

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.8 38.8
Succ Pass Plays 40.3% 44.6%
Sack Rate 9.1% 5.5%
Int Rate 3.3% 2.0%
Deep Pass Rate 20.6% 15.8%
Big Pass Yards 36.6% 39.4%
NYPP 5.5 6.2

Rush

Rush Plays 24.0 26.1
RB YPR 3.3 3.1
Stuff Rate 25.1% 33.0%
Succ Rush Plays 39.1% 35.7%
Big Rush Yards 27.5% 40.6%
Yards Per Rush 3.3 3.2

Game

All Snaps 59.8 64.8
Early Down Succ 43.0% 42.2%
Succ Rate 39.3% 40.8%
Big Yards Rate 35.2% 40.8%
Yards Per Play 4.5 5.0
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 28.8
Run Ratio 40.1% 40.1%
Starting Field Pos 27.1 31.2
Game Control -2.7 2.7

Points 17.3 22.4

BUF

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.5 37.0
Succ Pass Plays 42.2% 42.2%
Sack Rate 7.1% 8.5%
Int Rate 2.0% 2.3%
Deep Pass Rate 21.9% 12.9%
Big Pass Yards 48.1% 34.9%
NYPP 5.9 5.3

Rush

Rush Plays 29.1 24.8
RB YPR 4.2 4.2
Stuff Rate 22.4% 26.0%
Succ Rush Plays 48.3% 47.2%
Big Rush Yards 49.2% 48.1%
Yards Per Rush 4.5 4.2

Game

All Snaps 64.6 61.8
Early Down Succ 47.8% 47.3%
Succ Rate 44.7% 44.1%
Big Yards Rate 48.1% 39.9%
Yards Per Play 5.2 4.8
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.1 29.7
Run Ratio 45.0% 40.2%
Starting Field Pos 28.8 28.1
Game Control 1.6 -1.6

Points 19.6 16.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	BUF	16 – 17 L	7.1	42.2% / 55.3%	8.9% / 2.6%	0.0% / 5.4%	3.4 / 6.4	52.4% / 48.0%	33.3% / 20.0%	3.2 / 5.1	66 / 63	46.8% / 54.9%	45.5% / 52.4%	9.9% / 50.0%	3.4 / 5.9	1.5% / 3.2%	31.8% / 39.7%	28.4 / 22.9
2	CLE	3 – 23 L	-12.5	25.7% / 34.2%	11.4% / 7.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	4.8 / 8.0	41.7% / 28.6%	37.5% / 38.1%	3.9 / 3.3	59 / 59	39.5% / 33.3%	32.2% / 32.2%	42.4% / 74.4%	4.4 / 6.4	1.7% / 0.0%	40.7% / 35.6%	18.0 / 33.6
3	@NE	14 – 30 L	-17.6	22.2% / 54.3%	18.5% / 2.2%	4.5% / 2.2%	2.6 / 6.8	20.0% / 33.3%	30.0% / 14.8%	1.8 / 2.5	47 / 73	29.4% / 50.0%	21.3% / 46.6%	21.9% / 35.7%	2.2 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.4%	42.6% / 37.0%	18.2 / 40.3
5	@PHI	6 – 31 L	-16.1	25.0% / 43.3%	27.8% / 3.3%	7.7% / 0.0%	1.7 / 6.0	42.1% / 34.5%	26.3% / 34.5%	3.5 / 2.9	55 / 59	35.0% / 42.9%	30.9% / 39.0%	25.0% / 44.2%	2.3 / 4.5	1.8% / 1.7%	34.5% / 49.2%	27.1 / 35.2
6	DAL	24 – 22 W	7.9	55.9% / 56.1%	5.9% / 2.4%	3.1% / 0.0%	9.6 / 6.6	30.0% / 47.1%	10.0% / 23.5%	2.8 / 3.8	54 / 75	54.8% / 50.9%	46.3% / 52.0%	56.8% / 22.1%	7.1 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	37.0% / 45.3%	25.3 / 26.7
7	NE	0 – 33 L	-19.6	18.2% / 48.9%	3.0% / 0.0%	12.5% / 2.2%	2.2 / 5.5	50.0% / 38.2%	20.0% / 47.1%	4.1 / 2.2	53 / 79	35.0% / 45.0%	30.2% / 44.3%	32.5% / 38.1%	2.9 / 4.1	3.8% / 0.0%	37.7% / 43.0%	24.3 / 37.4
8	@JAC	15 – 29 L	-8.5	44.7% / 50.0%	21.1% / 5.6%	10.0% / 0.0%	4.4 / 7.7	46.7% / 17.6%	26.7% / 44.1%	3.1 / 3.3	53 / 70	51.2% / 32.0%	45.3% / 34.3%	39.0% / 55.3%	4.0 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.4%	28.3% / 48.6%	26.5 / 36.9
9	@MIA	18 – 26 L	-4.5	50.0% / 50.0%	7.1% / 10.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.7 / 6.7	42.9% / 33.3%	23.8% / 37.5%	4.0 / 2.1	63 / 64	50.0% / 44.0%	47.6% / 43.8%	26.8% / 23.4%	5.1 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	33.3% / 37.5%	30.7 / 31.2
10	NYG	34 – 27 W	4.1	46.9% / 32.6%	6.3% / 13.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.6	27.6% / 17.6%	31.0% / 64.7%	2.6 / 1.4	61 / 63	39.1% / 20.9%	37.7% / 28.6%	44.9% / 58.4%	4.8 / 4.5	0.0% / 3.2%	47.5% / 27.0%	29.7 / 25.9
11	@WAS	34 – 17 W	14.5	51.5% / 34.1%	6.1% / 14.6%	3.2% / 2.9%	8.6 / 4.2	45.5% / 45.0%	24.2% / 35.0%	3.5 / 2.7	66 / 61	51.0% / 38.6%	48.5% / 37.7%	43.0% / 57.8%	6.1 / 3.7	1.5% / 0.0%	50.0% / 32.8%	35.3 / 34.6
12	OAK	34 – 3 W	14.7	56.7% / 34.3%	3.3% / 2.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	10.4 / 4.0	43.3% / 31.8%	26.7% / 36.4%	2.9 / 3.1	60 / 57	53.2% / 35.0%	50.0% / 33.3%	60.3% / 12.5%	6.7 / 3.6	1.7% / 1.8%	50.0% / 38.6%	27.6 / 26.5
13	@CIN	6 – 22 L	-7.8	36.5% / 44.7%	7.7% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.0 / 6.1	41.2% / 36.0%	11.8% / 24.0%	3.6 / 1.8	69 / 63	38.8% / 45.7%	37.7% / 41.3%	14.8% / 0.0%	3.9 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	24.6% / 39.7%	17.8 / 36.1
14	MIA	22 – 21 W	2.4	45.9% / 48.7%	2.7% / 5.1%	2.8% / 2.7%	7.1 / 6.2	37.5% / 42.3%	21.9% / 19.2%	3.5 / 4.7	69 / 65	45.3% / 50.0%	42.0% / 46.2%	30.2% / 36.2%	5.4 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	46.4% / 40.0%	30.0 / 27.7
15	@BAL	21 – 42 L	-15.2	36.4% / 56.0%	3.0% / 4.0%	3.1% / 0.0%	6.3 / 8.5	45.8% / 50.0%	8.3% / 17.6%	4.3 / 6.4	57 / 59	41.5% / 57.1%	40.4% / 52.5%	44.8% / 56.7%	5.4 / 7.3	1.8% / 0.0%	42.1% / 57.6%	33.6 / 29.5
16	PIT	16 – 10 W	4.9	39.3% / 36.6%	7.1% / 9.8%	0.0% / 5.4%	6.2 / 4.5	25.0% / 28.0%	25.0% / 32.0%	2.7 / 3.0	60 / 66	32.6% / 37.3%	31.7% / 33.3%	33.2% / 31.9%	4.3 / 3.9	1.7% / 0.0%	53.3% / 37.9%	27.0 / 29.2
17	@BUF	13 – 6 W	2.9	47.4% / 34.1%	5.3% / 2.4%	2.8% / 5.0%	4.9 / 5.8	33.3% / 40.0%	44.4% / 40.0%	3.2 / 3.7	65 / 61	44.9% / 38.3%	41.5% / 36.1%	38.0% / 55.7%	4.2 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.6%	41.5% / 32.8%	33.8 / 25.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NYJ	17 – 16 W	-7.1	55.3% / 42.2%	2.6% / 8.9%	5.4% / 0.0%	6.4 / 3.4	48.0% / 52.4%	20.0% / 33.3%	5.1 / 3.2	63 / 66	54.9% / 46.8%	52.4% / 45.5%	50.0% / 9.9%	5.9 / 3.4	3.2% / 1.5%	39.7% / 31.8%	22.9 / 28.4
2	@NYG	28 – 14 W	8.9	42.4% / 45.7%	9.1% / 2.2%	0.0% / 4.4%	7.2 / 5.2	58.8% / 70.0%	17.6% / 5.0%	4.4 / 6.5	67 / 66	55.8% / 59.6%	50.7% / 53.0%	32.7% / 38.9%	5.8 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	50.7% / 30.3%	24.8 / 28.5
3	CIN	21 – 17 W	6.7	45.9% / 44.7%	2.7% / 5.3%	2.8% / 5.6%	6.5 / 6.3	55.6% / 36.8%	19.4% / 31.6%	4.9 / 3.5	73 / 57	55.2% / 46.7%	50.7% / 42.1%	40.6% / 52.9%	5.7 / 5.4	1.4% / 3.5%	49.3% / 33.3%	29.6 / 30.5
4	NE	10 – 16 L	-7.9	36.7% / 20.5%	10.2% / 0.0%	9.1% / 2.6%	4.9 / 3.8	50.0% / 47.8%	13.6% / 17.4%	6.1 / 3.2	71 / 62	47.3% / 33.3%	40.8% / 30.6%	46.9% / 32.1%	5.3 / 3.6	0.0% / 0.0%	31.0% / 37.1%	29.9 / 27.1
5	@TEN	14 – 7 W	2.4	47.2% / 40.7%	11.1% / 18.5%	3.1% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.6	55.6% / 40.7%	14.8% / 25.9%	4.0 / 3.8	63 / 54	58.7% / 45.0%	50.8% / 40.7%	34.5% / 52.0%	5.0 / 4.7	0.0% / 0.0%	42.9% / 50.0%	30.0 / 23.3
7	MIA	31 – 21 W	0.6	50.0% / 55.6%	7.1% / 2.8%	0.0% / 2.9%	6.7 / 7.6	52.2% / 50.0%	13.0% / 33.3%	5.1 / 3.6	51 / 66	55.0% / 52.0%	51.0% / 53.0%	61.3% / 45.9%	6.0 / 5.8	0.0% / 1.5%	45.1% / 45.5%	30.2 / 25.5
8	PHI	13 – 31 L	-5.2	31.6% / 48.1%	10.5% / 11.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.1 / 5.7	50.0% / 48.8%	35.0% / 29.3%	4.9 / 5.3	58 / 68	39.0% / 50.0%	37.9% / 48.5%	44.3% / 57.7%	4.4 / 5.5	1.7% / 1.5%	34.5% / 60.3%	29.4 / 36.4
9	WAS	24 – 9 W	8.5	45.5% / 34.6%	9.1% / 15.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 4.5	53.8% / 34.8%	17.9% / 30.4%	3.1 / 5.5	61 / 49	54.5% / 40.5%	50.8% / 34.7%	48.9% / 42.8%	4.4 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	63.9% / 46.9%	34.9 / 27.3
10	@CLE	16 – 19 L	-2.5	42.9% / 47.5%	2.4% / 5.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.2 / 5.5	40.0% / 53.8%	15.0% / 30.8%	4.2 / 5.7	62 / 66	46.8% / 53.8%	41.9% / 50.0%	42.4% / 32.1%	5.5 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	32.3% / 39.4%	24.5 / 24.8
11	@MIA	37 – 20 W	10.6	51.5% / 36.5%	0.0% / 13.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 5.4	38.2% / 30.8%	20.6% / 46.2%	4.9 / 1.8	67 / 65	47.1% / 38.3%	44.8% / 35.4%	41.5% / 38.0%	6.3 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.5%	50.7% / 20.0%	29.2 / 28.2
12	DEN	20 – 3 W	7.9	42.3% / 17.2%	3.8% / 13.8%	4.0% / 4.0%	6.9 / 1.7	44.7% / 58.8%	21.3% / 11.8%	5.2 / 5.0	73 / 46	43.6% / 37.1%	43.8% / 32.6%	52.8% / 41.8%	5.8 / 2.9	0.0% / 0.0%	64.4% / 37.0%	32.4 / 23.3
13	@DAL	26 – 15 W	4.9	51.7% / 50.9%	13.8% / 7.5%	0.0% / 2.0%	8.0 / 6.1	44.1% / 36.8%	32.4% / 21.1%	3.6 / 5.4	63 / 72	47.8% / 46.4%	47.6% / 47.2%	44.7% / 33.6%	5.7 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.4%	54.0% / 26.4%	33.1 / 23.5
14	BAL	17 – 24 L	-6.7	20.0% / 46.2%	13.3% / 3.8%	0.0% / 4.0%	2.3 / 5.3	43.5% / 54.5%	26.1% / 12.1%	4.5 / 3.6	68 / 59	30.0% / 58.7%	27.9% / 50.8%	54.1% / 33.9%	3.1 / 4.4	1.5% / 0.0%	33.8% / 55.9%	26.4 / 31.6
15	@PIT	17 – 10 W	1.7	42.3% / 35.7%	3.8% / 9.5%	4.0% / 10.5%	5.0 / 4.2	50.0% / 46.7%	26.3% / 40.0%	3.4 / 3.4	64 / 57	47.9% / 39.5%	46.9% / 38.6%	42.9% / 55.5%	4.1 / 4.0	1.6% / 1.8%	59.4% / 26.3%	29.4 / 31.1
16	@NE	17 – 24 L	-1.0	36.7% / 54.5%	13.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 8.2	43.5% / 54.3%	17.4% / 14.3%	4.0 / 4.1	53 / 68	45.0% / 58.0%	39.6% / 54.4%	70.1% / 33.6%	5.1 / 6.1	0.0% / 1.5%	43.4% / 51.5%	31.6 / 24.6
17	NYJ	6 – 13 L	-2.9	34.1% / 47.4%	2.4% / 5.3%	5.0% / 2.8%	5.8 / 4.9	40.0% / 33.3%	40.0% / 44.4%	3.7 / 3.2	61 / 65	38.3% / 44.9%	36.1% / 41.5%	55.7% / 38.0%	5.1 / 4.2	1.6% / 0.0%	32.8% / 41.5%	25.5 / 33.8
18	@HOU	19 – 22 L	8.1	41.2% / 50.0%	5.9% / 21.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.0 / 6.8	53.3% / 51.5%	30.0% / 15.2%	5.7 / 4.3	81 / 65	45.6% / 54.0%	45.7% / 50.8%	53.6% / 40.0%	5.2 / 5.5	1.2% / 1.5%	37.0% / 50.8%	25.5 / 30.5

New York Jets @

Buffalo Bills

Sun, Sep 13

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis