Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – Under (55.5) – Tennessee (-3) 27 Indiana 23
Thursday, January 2 – 4 pm Pacific
Tennessee’s only win in their first 5 games of the season was against an FCS team as a 31.5 point favorite and one of the losses was as a 25.5-point favorite against Georgia State. Tennessee was expected to be good this season and their poor start led to the Vols being underrated the rest of the season and they enter this game having won and covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games, with their only loss being at Alabama.
The Volunteers have a good pass attack (7.5 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average team) and overall their offense rates at 0.3 yards per play better than average with Jarrett Guarantano at quarterback. That attack has a slight advantage over an Indiana defense that is 0.2 yppl better than average, having allowed 5.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. Tennessee’s top receiver Jauan Jennings, who averages 11.0 yards per target, has been suspended for the first-half of this game, which is worth 0.4 points. My math projects 344 yards at 5.9 yppl for the Vols in this game.
Indiana’s offense was 0.6 yppl better than average during the regular season but quarterback Peyton Ramsey doesn’t throw the ball down the field as much as injured starter Michael Penix did and top running back Stevie Scott is listed as questionable for this game, which hurts the rush attack a bit if he can’t play (I’ll assume a 50% chance he plays). The Hoosiers’ offense rates at 0.3 yppl better than average entering this game and that unit is at a disadvantage against a solid Tennessee defense that is 0.6 yards per rushing play better than average, 0.8 yards per pass play better than average and 0.7 yards per play better than average overall (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense). I project 357 yards at 5.4 yppl for the Hoosiers in this game.
Overall, my math favors Tennessee by 3.7 points with a total of 49.5 points and the Under is a Strong Opinion at 55 points or higher.
Rush
-
Run Plays
30.4
36.9
-
Run Yards
140.7
177.7
-
YPRP
5.1
5.1
Pass
-
Pass Comp
25.9
19.4
-
Pass Att
40.2
31.4
-
Comp %
64.5%
61.8%
-
Pass Yards
286.2
265.1
-
Sacks
2.6
1.8
-
Sack Yards
15.0
11.8
-
Sack %
6.2%
5.5%
-
Pass Plays
42.8
33.2
-
Net Pass Yards
271.2
253.4
-
YPPP
6.3
7.6
Total
-
Total Plays
73.2
70.1
-
Total Yards
427.0
442.8
-
YPPL
5.8
6.3
TO
-
Int
1.0
0.8
-
Int %
2.4%
2.7%
-
Fumbles
0.7
1.0
-
Turnovers
1.7
1.9
Rush
-
Run Plays
28.7
36.9
-
Run Yards
117.7
158.0
-
YPRP
4.5
4.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
15.3
18.8
-
Pass Att
26.7
29.6
-
Comp %
57.4%
63.4%
-
Pass Yards
207.2
222.2
-
Sacks
2.1
2.4
-
Sack Yards
12.5
16.5
-
Sack %
7.2%
7.4%
-
Pass Plays
28.8
32.0
-
Net Pass Yards
194.7
205.7
-
YPPP
6.8
6.4
Total
-
Total Plays
57.5
68.9
-
Total Yards
324.9
380.2
-
YPPL
5.7
5.5
TO
-
Int
0.6
1.0
-
Int %
2.3%
3.4%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.2
1.4
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
10/06/18 @ Ohio St. |
26-49 |
+26.0
W
|
18/45 |
95/166 |
5.3/3.7 |
2/1 |
26/33 |
49/44 |
313/447 |
0/2 |
3/1 |
6.0/9.9 |
408/613 |
5.8/6.8 |
10/13/18 Iowa |
16-42 |
+4.0
L
|
22/31 |
85/164 |
3.9/5.3 |
0/0 |
31/21 |
42/33 |
245/315 |
2/1 |
3/1 |
5.4/9.3 |
330/479 |
4.9/7.4 |
10/20/18 Penn St. |
28-33 |
+14.5
W
|
39/33 |
268/190 |
6.9/5.8 |
2/1 |
35/20 |
55/37 |
286/227 |
1/1 |
6/3 |
4.7/5.7 |
554/417 |
5.5/5.7 |
10/26/18 @ Minnesota |
31-38 |
-2.0
L
|
29/36 |
155/176 |
5.3/4.9 |
1/3 |
29/17 |
44/24 |
230/290 |
2/1 |
1/1 |
5.1/11.6 |
385/466 |
5.2/7.6 |
11/10/18 Maryland |
34-32 |
-3.0
L
|
23/58 |
155/358 |
6.7/6.2 |
0/3 |
16/14 |
28/25 |
222/184 |
1/1 |
4/1 |
6.9/7.1 |
377/542 |
6.9/6.5 |
11/17/18 @ Michigan |
20-31 |
+28.5
W
|
38/48 |
207/260 |
5.4/5.4 |
1/0 |
16/16 |
35/28 |
178/250 |
1/1 |
2/0 |
4.8/8.9 |
385/510 |
5.1/6.7 |
11/24/18 Purdue |
21-28 |
+3.5
L
|
28/27 |
152/160 |
5.4/5.9 |
0/0 |
36/27 |
51/35 |
335/282 |
1/1 |
2/5 |
6.3/7.1 |
487/442 |
6.0/6.6 |
08/31/19 @ Ball St. |
34-24 |
+18.0
W
|
30/37 |
154/124 |
5.1/3.4 |
0/0 |
24/26 |
40/41 |
326/274 |
2/1 |
0/3 |
8.2/6.2 |
480/398 |
6.9/4.9 |
09/07/19 Eastern Illinois |
52-0 |
0.0
W
|
34/29 |
114/64 |
3.4/2.2 |
0/0 |
30/11 |
41/25 |
441/52 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
10.8/1.9 |
555/116 |
7.4/2.1 |
09/14/19 Ohio St. |
10-51 |
+18.0
L
|
26/39 |
73/326 |
2.8/8.4 |
0/1 |
21/17 |
36/29 |
185/233 |
1/0 |
5/1 |
4.5/7.8 |
258/559 |
3.9/8.1 |
09/21/19 Connecticut |
38-3 |
-27.5
W
|
38/20 |
187/56 |
4.9/2.8 |
1/0 |
24/15 |
28/30 |
249/89 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
8.6/2.8 |
436/145 |
6.5/2.8 |
09/28/19 @ Michigan St. |
31-40 |
+14.0
W
|
26/33 |
78/145 |
3.0/4.4 |
1/0 |
32/18 |
41/36 |
305/300 |
0/0 |
1/0 |
7.3/8.3 |
383/445 |
5.6/6.4 |
10/12/19 Rutgers |
35-0 |
-27.5
W
|
38/27 |
260/116 |
6.8/4.3 |
1/1 |
24/5 |
35/13 |
297/-41 |
1/0 |
0/6 |
8.5/-2.2 |
557/75 |
7.6/1.6 |
10/19/19 @ Maryland |
34-28 |
-6.0
T
|
29/35 |
189/191 |
6.5/5.5 |
0/1 |
29/17 |
41/27 |
334/192 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
8.0/6.6 |
523/383 |
7.4/6.0 |
10/26/19 @ Nebraska |
38-31 |
+2.5
W
|
25/49 |
121/225 |
4.8/4.6 |
0/2 |
27/20 |
40/23 |
343/289 |
1/0 |
2/1 |
8.2/12.0 |
464/514 |
6.9/7.0 |
11/02/19 Northwestern |
34-3 |
-10.0
W
|
48/27 |
158/93 |
3.3/3.4 |
0/3 |
17/12 |
25/30 |
256/106 |
0/0 |
3/1 |
9.1/3.4 |
414/199 |
5.4/3.4 |
11/16/19 @ Penn St. |
27-34 |
+14.5
W
|
29/40 |
102/215 |
3.5/5.4 |
2/1 |
31/11 |
41/23 |
360/158 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
8.4/6.1 |
462/373 |
6.4/5.7 |
11/23/19 Michigan |
14-39 |
+9.5
L
|
34/27 |
117/104 |
3.4/3.9 |
1/0 |
18/20 |
30/32 |
206/349 |
1/1 |
3/2 |
6.2/10.3 |
323/453 |
4.8/7.4 |
11/30/19 @ Purdue |
44-41 |
-6.5
L
|
44/32 |
221/194 |
5.0/6.1 |
0/1 |
23/28 |
39/49 |
301/395 |
0/1 |
6/1 |
6.7/7.9 |
522/589 |
5.9/7.2 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/29/18 @ Georgia |
12-38 |
+31.0
W
|
22/46 |
76/239 |
3.5/5.2 |
1/0 |
13/17 |
21/24 |
135/173 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
5.9/6.4 |
211/412 |
4.7/5.6 |
10/13/18 @ Auburn |
30-24 |
+16.5
W
|
32/31 |
88/157 |
2.8/5.1 |
0/1 |
21/28 |
32/45 |
310/300 |
0/2 |
3/2 |
8.9/6.4 |
398/457 |
5.9/5.9 |
10/20/18 Alabama |
21-58 |
+28.5
L
|
25/40 |
69/220 |
2.8/5.5 |
1/0 |
14/21 |
25/32 |
204/327 |
0/1 |
4/0 |
7.0/10.2 |
273/547 |
5.1/7.6 |
10/27/18 @ South Carolina |
24-27 |
+8.5
W
|
31/38 |
151/240 |
4.9/6.3 |
0/0 |
27/11 |
39/16 |
202/144 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
4.9/8.5 |
353/384 |
4.9/7.0 |
11/03/18 Charlotte |
14-3 |
-22.0
L
|
21/34 |
50/110 |
2.4/3.2 |
0/0 |
16/13 |
21/25 |
152/134 |
0/1 |
2/3 |
6.6/4.8 |
202/244 |
4.6/3.9 |
11/10/18 Kentucky |
24-7 |
+5.0
W
|
37/29 |
221/125 |
6.0/4.3 |
2/1 |
11/23 |
19/38 |
151/152 |
0/2 |
1/5 |
7.6/3.5 |
372/277 |
6.5/3.8 |
11/17/18 Missouri |
17-50 |
+6.5
L
|
24/48 |
106/236 |
4.4/4.9 |
1/1 |
7/21 |
21/30 |
153/252 |
2/0 |
3/1 |
6.4/8.1 |
259/488 |
5.4/6.2 |
11/24/18 @ Vanderbilt |
13-38 |
+3.0
L
|
12/39 |
115/126 |
9.6/3.2 |
0/0 |
13/31 |
33/35 |
127/343 |
1/0 |
2/3 |
3.6/9.0 |
242/469 |
5.1/6.1 |
08/31/19 Georgia St. |
30-38 |
-26.0
L
|
27/50 |
128/232 |
4.7/4.6 |
2/1 |
26/11 |
40/24 |
275/122 |
1/0 |
4/2 |
6.3/4.7 |
403/354 |
5.7/4.7 |
09/07/19 BYU |
26-29 |
-3.5
L
|
48/25 |
248/136 |
5.2/5.4 |
0/0 |
17/19 |
28/29 |
170/214 |
1/0 |
1/4 |
5.9/6.5 |
418/350 |
5.4/6.0 |
09/14/19 Chattanooga |
45-0 |
0.0
W
|
38/42 |
195/164 |
5.1/3.9 |
0/1 |
14/9 |
19/26 |
233/76 |
0/4 |
0/0 |
12.3/2.9 |
428/240 |
7.5/3.5 |
09/21/19 @ Florida |
3-34 |
+14.0
L
|
23/35 |
97/143 |
4.2/4.1 |
1/1 |
14/24 |
28/34 |
142/304 |
3/2 |
4/2 |
4.4/8.4 |
239/447 |
4.3/6.3 |
10/05/19 Georgia |
14-43 |
+24.5
L
|
25/39 |
99/241 |
4.0/6.2 |
1/0 |
15/24 |
33/29 |
247/288 |
1/0 |
4/0 |
6.7/9.9 |
346/529 |
5.6/7.8 |
10/12/19 Mississippi St. |
20-10 |
+6.5
W
|
42/30 |
197/154 |
4.7/5.1 |
0/0 |
10/11 |
14/21 |
162/113 |
2/3 |
1/7 |
10.8/4.0 |
359/267 |
6.3/4.6 |
10/19/19 @ Alabama |
13-35 |
+34.5
W
|
33/32 |
138/165 |
4.2/5.2 |
1/0 |
12/18 |
23/24 |
106/218 |
1/1 |
2/2 |
4.2/8.4 |
244/383 |
4.2/6.6 |
10/26/19 South Carolina |
41-21 |
+4.5
W
|
35/27 |
139/102 |
4.0/3.8 |
0/0 |
18/28 |
30/51 |
351/295 |
0/0 |
0/3 |
11.7/5.5 |
490/397 |
7.5/4.9 |
11/02/19 UAB |
30-7 |
-13.0
W
|
37/21 |
139/79 |
3.8/3.8 |
0/1 |
16/14 |
27/30 |
168/155 |
1/3 |
2/3 |
5.8/4.7 |
307/234 |
4.7/4.3 |
11/09/19 @ Kentucky |
17-13 |
+1.5
W
|
19/62 |
88/313 |
4.6/5.0 |
1/0 |
14/4 |
25/7 |
206/14 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
7.9/1.6 |
294/327 |
6.5/4.6 |
11/23/19 @ Missouri |
24-20 |
+3.5
W
|
29/35 |
126/122 |
4.3/3.5 |
1/0 |
23/17 |
41/29 |
404/158 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
9.6/5.1 |
530/280 |
7.5/4.2 |
11/30/19 Vanderbilt |
28-10 |
-22.5
L
|
40/26 |
299/129 |
7.5/5.0 |
0/0 |
6/17 |
17/36 |
120/152 |
1/0 |
0/3 |
7.1/3.9 |
419/281 |
7.4/4.3 |