Game Analysis

Best Bet – *Under (54.5) – Western Kentucky (-3)  25   Western Michigan  23

I don’t see many points being scored in this game. Western Michigan has the better offense of the two teams but the Broncos’ 32.9 points per game and 6.4 yards per play were against FBS teams that would combine to allow 6.4 yppl to an average team and those numbers were skewed upwards by their week 3 game against Georgia State in which they racked up over 700 yards at 10.8 yppl and scored 57 points. Western Michigan rated below average offensively in the majority of their games and I rate the Broncos’ offense at 0.1 yppl worse than average. That’s actually pretty good for a MAC team but that unit is at a disadvantage in this game against a solid Western Kentucky defense that’s yielded just 20.1 points per game and 5.2 yppl against teams that would combine to average 22.5 points and 5.4 yppl against an average team. Western Michigan faced mostly bad defensive teams and the Broncos averaged only 4.8 yppl in two games against better than average defensive teams (Michigan State and Miami-Ohio, who would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average offense). The math projects just 358 yards at 5.6 yppl for the Broncos in this game.

Western Kentucky’s offense improved some in week 5 when former Arkansas quarterback Ty Storey took over as the starter for an injured Steven Duncan but the Hilltoppers still averaged just 26.4 points and 5.9 yppl in Storey’s 9 starts despite facing mostly bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 30.9 points and 6.3 yppl to an average offense. Western Michigan is equally bad defensively, surrendering 6.0 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense but the Broncos only gave up 26.2 points per game (to teams that would average 23.8 points against an average defense). The math projects 392 yards at 5.8 yppl for the Hilltoppers in this game.

The projected total yards of 750 yards doesn’t scream under, although it is 36 yards below the national average, but what is certainly not in the line is how much the special teams units of these teams have hurt their scoring. Western Kentucky’s punt and kickoff return teams cost them 2.3 points per game but their punting and kickoff coverage teams are 2.0 points per game better than average, which helps the under. Western Michigan’s special teams kick and coverage units have lowered their total scoring by 0.6 points per game and the kickers for these two teams are among the worst in the nation, as Western Kentucky’s kicker is -0.92 points per game worse than average while Western Michigan’s kicker is 0.84 points per game worse than average. Only about 30% of past special teams performance projects forward but that’s pretty significant in this case and overall the math model projects just 47.4 total points. My points based model projects 48.2 total points so I feel pretty confident that there is value in the under. I’ll play Under 54 points or less in a 1-Star Best Bet (Strong Opinion down to 53).