Game Analysis

Michigan State (-4/-3.5)  29   Wake Forest  24

Friday, December 27 – 12:20 pm Pacific

Michigan State had a very disappointing season and barely beat a dreadful Maryland team at home in their final regular season game to get to 6-6 just to qualify for a bowl game. The Spartans are a better than average team thanks to a defense that yielded just 22.7 points per game and 5.1 yppl despite facing a schedule of teams that would average 30.4 points and 6.0 yppl against an average defense. The defense is not as good now without suspended LB Joe Bachie, who was on his way to another All-Big 10 season before the PED suspension prior to week 11, but the Spartans are still good defensively and are certainly better than a mediocre Wake Forest attack that averaged 5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average offense. The Demon Deacons are higher scoring than their yards per play stats because they play at a fast pace and run a lot of plays. It looks like starting quarterback Jamie Newman will be ready to play, as he is listed as the #1 quarterback on the recently released depth chart. However, Newman was actually 0.3 yards per pass play worse than the team’s season average because while backup Sam Hartman was 1.0 yppp better than the team’s average compensated pass rating. Wake Forest lost leading receiver Sage Surratt after 9 games but freshman Donavon Greene has more than stepped up in this place, with 220 yards on 15 targets in 3 games and a 67% success rate, which leads the wide receiving group. The math projects Wake Forest with 367 yards at 4.9 yards per play but the Demon Deacons’ offense would likely surpass those numbers if Michigan State’s top cornerback Josiah Scott is unavailable to play. Scott is listed as questionable with a concussion but I’ll assume he’ll play.

Michigan State’s unimaginative offense was once again the problem with the Spartans, who averaged only 22.0 points and 5.3 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would allow 22.5 points and 5.4 yppl to an average team. Receiver Darrell Stewart may still be out (he missed the team’s last 4 games) but freshman Julian Barnett has matched Stewart’s mediocre yards per target number since he’s been out. I expect Michigan State to move the ball pretty well in this game, as Wake Forest’s defense is much worse than what the Spartans are used to seeing. The Demon Deacons allowed 29.3 points and 5.8 yppl in the regular season to teams that would combine to average 28.3 points and 5.7 yppl against an average defense and that unit is worse without top tackler LB Justin Strnad. Wake Forest’s run defense was 0.2 yards per rushing play better than average in 7 games with Strnad but they’ve been 0.4 yprp worse than average in 5 games without him (5.5 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team). The math projects 407 yards at 5.8 yppl for Michigan State in this game. Overall the math favors the Spartans by 5 points with a total of 53 points.