Game Analysis
Note: The over in this game was released as a Best Bet to subscribers early in the week but is now out of range – although I still lean over.
Best Bet – *Over (45.5) – ATLANTA (-7) vs Jacksonville
Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey was injured in the third game of the season then traded to the Rams and Jacksonville’s defense is allowing 6.3 yards per play since week 4 (30th). I expect Atlanta’s offense to put up points on Sunday even without Calvin Ridley. Julio Jones had 20 targets last week and accounted for 74.3% of Matt Ryan’s intended air yards. Jones is now gaining 2.40 yards per route run (5th) and the Jaguars have no chance of guarding the Pro Bowl wide receiver. Austin Hooper’s 660 receiving yards rank 6th among tight ends despite missing 3 games and he should be effective in his second game back from injury versus Jacksonville’s depleted linebacking corps.
The Falcons pass rush will likely take a step backwards this week. Jaguars center Brandon Linder ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency and former All-Pro guard Andrew Norwell will limit Pro Bowl interior defender Grady Jarrett, who had 6 hurries last week. Edge rusher Takkarist McKinley is done for the year and our metrics have him valued at 0.6 points because we will see more of Vic Beasley, who only has 32 pressures this season, ranking 43rd out of the 47 edge defenders with at least 300 pass rushing snaps. Edge defender Adrian Clayborn ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency but I expect the Jaguars to use some double teams on him with no concern for Beasley on the other side. DJ Chark should return to the lineup this week providing a major boost for Jacksonville’s offense. Chark is averaging one reception with at least 20 air yards per game in 2019 and I expect the wide receiver to get behind Atlanta’s secondary at least once on Sunday. The Falcons have been without starting free safety Keanu Neal most of the season and are allowing a league-high 9.7 yards per target to opposing wide receivers. Cornerback Desmond Trufant is also out and Gardner Minshew should hit some deep shots in this matchup.
The Jaguars are underrated on offense because Nick Foles clearly wasn’t right coming back from a broken clavicle and averaged just 5.1 yards per pass play. Jacksonville’s defense is overrated due to key losses at every level, most notably interior defender Marcell Dareus, linebacker Myles Jack, and cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Our model makes Atlanta an 8.7-point favorite with a predicted total of 49.3 points and the Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 45.5 points or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.6
35.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.3%
48.3%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
8.3%
-
Int Rate
1.3%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.5%
18.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.5%
48.5%
-
NYPP
6.0
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.4
27.3
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
22.2%
22.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.6%
50.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.5%
50.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
63.9
62.3
-
Early Down Succ
43.2%
52.0%
-
Succ Rate
40.8%
49.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.6%
51.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
28.4
-
Run Ratio
37.5%
43.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.5
29.9
-
Game Control
-5.3
5.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
45.1
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.0%
53.6%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
4.4%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.0%
16.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.9%
40.9%
-
NYPP
6.6
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.8
26.9
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
25.2%
21.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.0%
49.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
36.3%
38.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
66.9
62.9
-
Early Down Succ
48.2%
53.3%
-
Succ Rate
47.1%
50.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
33.1%
40.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
28.5
-
Run Ratio
32.9%
43.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.0
29.7
-
Game Control
-3.8
3.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
KC |
26 – 40 L |
-11.7 |
52.9% /
58.8% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
10.2 /
11.1 |
43.8% /
57.7% |
12.5% /
26.9% |
5.1 /
4.3 |
50 /
60 |
50.0% /
62.5% |
50.0% /
58.3% |
55.4% /
62.3% |
8.6 /
8.2 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
32.0% /
43.3% |
23.8 /
38.4 |
| 2 |
@HOU |
12 – 13 L |
-3.3 |
40.5% /
36.4% |
10.8% /
12.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
4.2 |
42.9% /
56.7% |
14.3% /
16.7% |
4.9 /
4.2 |
58 /
63 |
44.2% /
46.8% |
41.4% /
46.0% |
40.6% /
35.0% |
4.8 /
4.2 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
36.2% /
47.6% |
26.0 /
26.8 |
| 3 |
TEN |
20 – 7 W |
13.0 |
43.3% /
30.6% |
0.0% /
18.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
5.1 |
15.0% /
53.8% |
45.0% /
19.2% |
4.4 /
3.5 |
50 /
75 |
37.8% /
36.8% |
32.0% /
38.7% |
56.8% /
57.1% |
5.8 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
40.0% /
34.7% |
25.7 /
28.9 |
| 4 |
@DEN |
26 – 24 W |
-5.0 |
36.8% /
52.6% |
13.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
4.9 /
8.0 |
50.0% /
43.8% |
10.5% /
12.5% |
7.1 /
4.3 |
76 /
54 |
45.9% /
54.8% |
43.4% /
50.0% |
52.1% /
52.3% |
6.0 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
29.6% |
24.0 /
27.0 |
| 5 |
@CAR |
27 – 34 L |
-5.8 |
52.2% /
44.1% |
4.3% /
8.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
4.7 |
45.2% /
55.6% |
25.8% /
18.5% |
4.8 /
10.6 |
77 /
61 |
50.8% /
54.2% |
49.4% /
49.2% |
57.8% /
63.8% |
6.6 /
7.3 |
3.9% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
44.3% |
22.9 /
28.8 |
| 6 |
NO |
6 – 13 L |
-2.4 |
38.7% /
48.7% |
6.5% /
7.7% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
5.7 |
25.0% /
65.4% |
16.7% /
19.2% |
3.1 /
4.0 |
55 /
65 |
35.0% /
62.0% |
32.7% /
55.4% |
35.8% /
36.5% |
4.1 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.6% /
40.0% |
18.1 /
32.1 |
| 7 |
@CIN |
27 – 17 W |
2.4 |
38.2% /
37.8% |
5.9% /
4.4% |
0.0% /
7.0% |
7.2 /
5.7 |
52.3% /
30.0% |
25.0% /
50.0% |
4.9 /
1.7 |
78 /
65 |
53.4% /
34.0% |
46.2% /
35.4% |
66.7% /
53.6% |
5.9 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
56.4% /
30.8% |
28.6 /
29.1 |
| 8 |
NYJ |
29 – 15 W |
8.5 |
50.0% /
44.7% |
5.6% /
21.1% |
0.0% /
10.0% |
7.7 /
4.4 |
17.6% /
46.7% |
44.1% /
26.7% |
3.3 /
3.1 |
70 /
53 |
32.0% /
51.2% |
34.3% /
45.3% |
55.3% /
39.0% |
5.6 /
4.0 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
48.6% /
28.3% |
36.9 /
26.5 |
| 9 |
HOU |
3 – 26 L |
-8.4 |
39.2% /
62.1% |
7.8% /
3.4% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
6.7 |
60.0% /
50.0% |
6.7% /
20.6% |
4.9 /
6.4 |
66 /
63 |
47.2% /
58.8% |
43.9% /
55.6% |
35.4% /
42.0% |
5.4 /
6.5 |
3.0% /
1.6% |
22.7% /
54.0% |
24.0 /
35.0 |
| 11 |
@IND |
13 – 33 L |
-7.1 |
42.9% /
40.7% |
4.1% /
11.1% |
2.1% /
4.2% |
5.7 /
4.6 |
33.3% /
58.3% |
33.3% /
8.3% |
3.2 /
7.3 |
58 /
63 |
41.9% /
56.3% |
41.4% /
50.8% |
28.6% /
52.7% |
5.3 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
15.5% /
57.1% |
30.3 /
24.0 |
| 12 |
@TEN |
20 – 42 L |
-12.2 |
43.1% /
73.7% |
5.9% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
13.3 |
44.4% /
48.5% |
7.4% /
18.2% |
4.3 /
6.6 |
78 /
52 |
45.6% /
65.0% |
43.6% /
57.7% |
30.9% /
67.7% |
4.7 /
9.1 |
1.3% /
3.8% |
34.6% /
63.5% |
23.0 /
32.6 |
| 13 |
TB |
11 – 28 L |
-16.8 |
23.9% /
43.2% |
10.9% /
10.8% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
6.5 |
41.2% /
29.0% |
29.4% /
45.2% |
2.9 /
2.4 |
63 /
68 |
28.3% /
34.7% |
28.6% /
36.8% |
40.9% /
61.0% |
3.8 /
4.6 |
3.2% /
1.5% |
27.0% /
45.6% |
28.7 /
37.4 |
| 14 |
LAC |
10 – 45 L |
-17.4 |
35.0% /
57.1% |
5.0% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
11.8 |
56.5% /
63.3% |
13.0% /
10.0% |
3.8 /
6.5 |
63 /
58 |
47.7% /
60.4% |
42.9% /
60.3% |
17.1% /
62.7% |
4.0 /
9.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.5% /
51.7% |
22.7 /
26.6 |
| 15 |
@OAK |
20 – 16 W |
-8.2 |
41.9% /
45.0% |
6.5% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
5.9 |
40.9% /
53.1% |
27.3% /
18.8% |
3.5 /
4.0 |
53 /
72 |
45.0% /
50.8% |
41.5% /
48.6% |
51.5% /
38.5% |
4.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.5% /
44.4% |
22.3 /
25.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@MIN |
12 – 28 L |
-18.6 |
48.0% /
63.6% |
8.0% /
9.1% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
8.8 |
41.2% /
36.8% |
29.4% /
26.3% |
4.3 /
4.5 |
67 /
49 |
47.4% /
43.2% |
46.3% /
42.9% |
36.5% /
58.0% |
5.1 /
5.5 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
25.4% /
77.6% |
26.5 /
33.7 |
| 2 |
PHI |
24 – 20 W |
4.4 |
50.0% /
43.1% |
2.3% /
5.9% |
7.0% /
4.2% |
7.0 /
4.6 |
47.1% /
33.3% |
23.5% /
19.0% |
3.4 /
2.3 |
61 /
72 |
53.1% /
35.3% |
49.2% /
40.3% |
46.6% /
15.0% |
6.0 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
27.9% /
29.2% |
23.4 /
38.5 |
| 3 |
@IND |
24 – 27 L |
-8.1 |
61.8% /
60.5% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
7.9 |
50.0% /
41.7% |
25.0% /
33.3% |
4.7 /
3.3 |
54 /
62 |
53.5% /
53.8% |
57.4% /
53.2% |
35.0% /
34.6% |
7.4 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.0% /
38.7% |
24.0 /
20.9 |
| 4 |
TEN |
10 – 24 L |
-10.8 |
48.3% /
44.4% |
8.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
8.4 |
41.2% /
44.1% |
23.5% /
32.4% |
3.4 /
4.1 |
75 /
61 |
50.9% /
44.7% |
46.7% /
44.3% |
39.1% /
50.1% |
5.6 /
6.0 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
22.7% /
55.7% |
15.7 /
32.6 |
| 5 |
@HOU |
32 – 53 L |
-5.3 |
41.7% /
72.7% |
4.2% /
0.0% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
12.9 |
30.0% /
55.9% |
35.0% /
11.8% |
2.9 /
4.9 |
68 /
67 |
32.0% /
61.1% |
38.2% /
64.2% |
27.6% /
58.1% |
5.5 /
8.8 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
29.4% /
50.7% |
28.7 /
26.5 |
| 6 |
@ARI |
33 – 34 L |
-4.9 |
68.4% /
62.2% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.0 /
9.2 |
52.0% /
34.5% |
20.0% /
24.1% |
4.1 /
3.5 |
63 /
66 |
63.5% /
51.0% |
61.9% /
50.0% |
37.6% /
55.4% |
7.0 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.7% /
43.9% |
22.4 /
27.3 |
| 7 |
LA |
10 – 37 L |
-12.4 |
44.7% /
50.0% |
13.2% /
0.0% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
7.7 |
46.7% /
50.0% |
33.3% /
36.1% |
2.5 /
2.5 |
53 /
74 |
52.5% /
49.1% |
45.3% /
50.0% |
17.4% /
32.0% |
4.2 /
5.1 |
3.8% /
0.0% |
28.3% /
48.6% |
29.0 /
38.2 |
| 8 |
SEA |
20 – 27 L |
-11.4 |
59.3% /
59.1% |
3.7% /
9.1% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
7.8 |
47.1% /
66.7% |
29.4% /
15.2% |
4.1 /
4.6 |
71 /
55 |
61.0% /
72.7% |
56.3% /
63.6% |
28.7% /
44.7% |
7.2 /
5.9 |
2.8% /
0.0% |
23.9% /
60.0% |
21.8 /
35.1 |
| 10 |
@NO |
26 – 9 W |
6.7 |
33.3% /
46.2% |
2.8% /
11.5% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
44.1% /
72.7% |
23.5% /
9.1% |
4.2 /
4.7 |
70 /
63 |
37.0% /
63.0% |
38.6% /
50.8% |
38.5% /
10.6% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.6% /
17.5% |
36.9 /
26.6 |
| 11 |
@CAR |
29 – 3 W |
15.6 |
51.4% /
40.0% |
8.6% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
8.4 /
4.9 |
38.5% /
53.3% |
26.9% /
13.3% |
2.1 /
5.1 |
61 /
70 |
47.7% /
49.0% |
45.9% /
42.9% |
44.4% /
34.0% |
5.7 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.6% /
21.4% |
35.4 /
22.7 |
| 12 |
TB |
22 – 35 L |
-7.4 |
32.8% /
57.1% |
9.8% /
0.0% |
1.8% /
7.1% |
4.6 /
11.2 |
47.4% /
44.1% |
36.8% /
20.6% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
80 /
62 |
37.7% /
54.3% |
36.3% /
50.0% |
35.6% /
69.5% |
4.2 /
7.2 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
23.8% /
54.8% |
29.9 /
24.9 |
| 13 |
NO |
18 – 26 L |
-8.3 |
40.7% /
48.4% |
15.3% /
0.0% |
4.0% /
0.0% |
4.4 /
5.9 |
50.0% /
38.9% |
19.2% /
27.8% |
3.4 /
5.3 |
85 /
49 |
43.8% /
52.6% |
43.5% /
44.9% |
6.6% /
48.7% |
4.1 /
5.7 |
1.2% /
0.0% |
30.6% /
36.7% |
30.2 /
35.4 |
| 14 |
CAR |
40 – 20 W |
9.4 |
42.9% /
52.2% |
2.9% /
10.9% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
8.6 /
5.3 |
50.0% /
59.1% |
12.5% /
13.6% |
5.0 /
4.5 |
67 /
68 |
48.1% /
58.6% |
46.3% /
54.4% |
41.4% /
18.3% |
6.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
47.8% /
32.4% |
39.8 /
21.7 |
| 15 |
@SF |
23 – 22 W |
-2.1 |
48.8% /
51.4% |
4.9% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
5.5 |
45.0% /
55.6% |
15.0% /
18.5% |
4.5 /
4.4 |
61 /
62 |
46.8% /
57.1% |
47.5% /
53.2% |
27.6% /
34.2% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
1.6% /
3.2% |
32.8% /
43.5% |
27.6 /
31.4 |
Jacksonville Jaguars
@ 
Atlanta Falcons