Game Analysis

MARSHALL (-6.5)  31   Louisiana Tech  25

The big news regarding this game is the suspensions of 3 Louisiana Tech starters – quarterback J’Mar Smith, WR Adrian Hardy, and S James Jackson. Smith’s loss probably won’t affect Louisiana Tech’s yards per pass play, as Smith has been the worst quarterback Skip Holtz has had there in terms of compensated yards per pass play and he’s barely improved in that metric since his first season as the starter in 2017 (just 0.1 yppp better this season). Smith’s numbers look better this season because he’s faced the easiest slate of opposing pass defenses of any FBS quarterback (1.8 yppp worse than average) but he has been 0.7 yppp worse than average after compensating for opposing defenses. The Bulldogs yards per pass play probably won’t drop-off with backup Aaron Allen at quarterback (he’s completed 8 of 9 passes for 114 yards) but I do expect a higher interception rate, as Smith was a very careful quarterback that rarely threw the ball into tight coverage. Smith has thrown just 4 interceptions this season and has a very low passes defended against percentage as well. I doubt that a young quarterback making his first start will be able to replicate that facet of Smith’s game.

Hardy leads the team in receiving yards, but his absence might help the team, as Hardy has averaged just 6.9 yards per target with the worst success rate of any of the receivers. Malik Stanley, who will take Hardy’s place in the slot, has averaged 13.2 YPT with a 68% success rate. Losing Jackson on defense shouldn’t be an issue either, as he has very few impact plays (just 2.5 total tackles for loss and 1 pass broken up) and the defense has actually been a bit better the last two games with him sitting out.

I think there has been an overreaction to the suspensions, as my math favors Marshall by just 4 points after making what I feel are the appropriate adjustments, but Louisiana Tech does apply to a negative 15-62 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their recent good play (4 consecutive wins and spread wins) and last week’s blowout win over North Texas. I recommend staying away from this game.