Game Analysis
OKLAHOMA STATE (-4) 35 Baylor 31
My metrics rate unbeaten Baylor as a slightly better team so far this season and the Bears win over a very good Iowa State team is better than any of Oklahoma State’s four victories. However, Baylor’s surprisingly good defense (4.5 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average defense) took a big hit with the season-ending injury to star LB Clay Johnston. Johnston has nearly double the tackles as Baylor #2 tackler (58 tackles to 30) and he has 8 total tackles for loss and 6 passes defended in 6 games, which is very good for a linebacker (actually, it’s good for cornerback too). I value Johnston at 2.4 points, which puts my math right at the market number.
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.3
32.7
-
Run Yards
183.9
168.9
-
YPRP
5.5
5.6
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.0
20.2
-
Pass Att
34.4
32.9
-
Comp %
60.9%
61.5%
-
Pass Yards
268.5
240.2
-
Sacks
2.7
2.4
-
Sack Yards
16.6
15.5
-
Sack %
7.4%
6.8%
-
Pass Plays
37.1
35.3
-
Net Pass Yards
251.8
224.8
-
YPPP
6.8
6.4
Total
-
Total Plays
73.4
68.0
-
Total Yards
452.4
409.1
-
YPPL
6.2
6.0
TO
-
Int
1.1
0.7
-
Int %
3.3%
2.1%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.6
1.2
Rush
-
Run Plays
38.9
38.4
-
Run Yards
206.7
207.4
-
YPRP
5.7
5.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.9
19.5
-
Pass Att
36.2
32.3
-
Comp %
60.5%
60.4%
-
Pass Yards
291.0
261.4
-
Sacks
2.5
2.2
-
Sack Yards
15.8
12.2
-
Sack %
6.6%
6.3%
-
Pass Plays
38.7
34.5
-
Net Pass Yards
275.2
249.2
-
YPPP
7.1
7.2
Total
-
Total Plays
77.6
72.9
-
Total Yards
497.6
468.8
-
YPPL
6.4
6.4
TO
-
Int
1.1
0.3
-
Int %
3.0%
0.9%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.8
0.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
10/06/18 Kansas St. |
37-34 |
-4.5
L
|
44/32 |
282/351 |
6.4/11.0 |
0/1 |
30/15 |
45/26 |
271/122 |
2/2 |
4/3 |
5.5/4.2 |
553/473 |
5.9/7.8 |
10/13/18 @ Texas |
17-23 |
+14.0
W
|
31/40 |
103/182 |
3.3/4.6 |
0/0 |
20/24 |
39/39 |
229/207 |
1/1 |
3/1 |
5.5/5.2 |
332/389 |
4.5/4.9 |
10/25/18 @ West Virginia |
14-58 |
+14.5
L
|
31/31 |
126/188 |
4.1/6.1 |
1/0 |
17/21 |
29/31 |
168/381 |
3/0 |
5/1 |
4.9/11.9 |
294/569 |
4.5/9.0 |
11/03/18 Oklahoma St. |
35-31 |
+6.0
W
|
37/43 |
257/234 |
6.9/5.4 |
0/1 |
14/25 |
25/42 |
145/273 |
1/0 |
2/4 |
5.4/5.9 |
402/507 |
6.3/5.7 |
11/10/18 @ Iowa St. |
14-28 |
+14.5
W
|
31/29 |
154/135 |
5.0/4.7 |
0/0 |
29/18 |
48/23 |
351/220 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
7.2/9.2 |
505/355 |
6.3/6.7 |
11/17/18 TCU |
9-16 |
0.0
L
|
35/38 |
165/181 |
4.7/4.8 |
2/0 |
14/15 |
29/21 |
135/140 |
1/0 |
5/2 |
4.0/6.1 |
300/321 |
4.3/5.3 |
11/24/18 Texas Tech |
35-24 |
+5.0
W
|
45/28 |
204/114 |
4.5/4.1 |
0/0 |
22/21 |
31/37 |
282/233 |
2/2 |
3/2 |
8.3/6.0 |
486/347 |
6.2/5.2 |
12/27/18 Vanderbilt |
45-38 |
+4.0
W
|
44/23 |
290/290 |
6.6/12.6 |
0/1 |
21/18 |
35/37 |
378/283 |
1/0 |
2/1 |
10.2/7.4 |
668/573 |
8.2/9.4 |
08/31/19 Stephen F. Austin |
56-17 |
0.0
W
|
37/29 |
245/77 |
6.6/2.7 |
1/0 |
26/16 |
37/30 |
250/114 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
6.8/3.5 |
495/191 |
6.7/3.1 |
09/07/19 UTSA |
63-14 |
-25.0
W
|
38/33 |
370/135 |
9.7/4.1 |
0/1 |
16/17 |
23/30 |
227/104 |
0/0 |
1/3 |
9.5/3.2 |
597/239 |
9.6/3.6 |
09/21/19 @ Rice |
21-13 |
-26.0
L
|
32/32 |
134/80 |
4.2/2.5 |
2/1 |
20/18 |
28/31 |
295/162 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
9.8/4.8 |
429/242 |
6.9/3.7 |
09/28/19 Iowa St. |
23-21 |
+3.0
W
|
30/25 |
122/96 |
4.1/3.8 |
0/1 |
26/27 |
45/45 |
291/317 |
0/1 |
3/3 |
6.1/6.6 |
413/413 |
5.3/5.7 |
10/05/19 @ Kansas St. |
31-12 |
+1.5
W
|
29/34 |
196/147 |
6.8/4.3 |
0/1 |
15/22 |
24/34 |
217/194 |
0/1 |
2/6 |
8.3/4.9 |
413/341 |
7.5/4.6 |
10/12/19 Texas Tech |
33-30 |
-11.0
L
|
36/38 |
183/171 |
5.1/4.5 |
0/1 |
24/31 |
38/42 |
342/336 |
3/2 |
2/5 |
8.6/7.1 |
525/507 |
6.9/6.0 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/29/18 @ Kansas |
48-28 |
-17.0
W
|
44/27 |
266/148 |
6.0/5.5 |
0/1 |
15/24 |
20/32 |
312/222 |
1/0 |
0/5 |
15.6/6.0 |
578/370 |
9.0/5.8 |
10/06/18 Iowa St. |
42-48 |
-9.5
L
|
34/34 |
178/165 |
5.2/4.9 |
1/1 |
19/19 |
33/25 |
244/309 |
1/1 |
7/4 |
6.1/10.7 |
422/474 |
5.7/7.5 |
10/13/18 @ Kansas St. |
12-31 |
-6.5
L
|
26/52 |
146/310 |
5.6/6.0 |
0/0 |
17/11 |
35/22 |
165/113 |
2/0 |
2/2 |
4.5/4.7 |
311/423 |
4.9/5.6 |
10/27/18 Texas |
38-35 |
+3.0
W
|
45/29 |
236/123 |
5.2/4.2 |
0/0 |
23/22 |
34/42 |
290/279 |
0/0 |
3/1 |
7.8/6.5 |
526/402 |
6.4/5.6 |
11/03/18 @ Baylor |
31-35 |
-6.0
L
|
43/37 |
234/257 |
5.4/6.9 |
1/0 |
25/14 |
42/25 |
273/145 |
0/1 |
4/2 |
5.9/5.4 |
507/402 |
5.7/6.3 |
11/10/18 @ Oklahoma |
47-48 |
+18.0
W
|
30/43 |
157/373 |
5.2/8.7 |
1/0 |
34/21 |
53/29 |
483/331 |
0/0 |
3/3 |
8.6/10.3 |
640/704 |
7.4/9.4 |
11/17/18 West Virginia |
45-41 |
+6.0
W
|
41/40 |
271/208 |
6.6/5.2 |
2/1 |
30/27 |
46/48 |
332/349 |
2/0 |
2/3 |
6.9/6.8 |
603/557 |
6.8/6.1 |
11/24/18 @ TCU |
24-31 |
-5.0
L
|
31/40 |
114/262 |
3.7/6.6 |
1/1 |
17/16 |
40/25 |
177/173 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
4.3/6.4 |
291/435 |
4.0/6.5 |
12/31/18 Missouri |
38-33 |
+9.0
W
|
31/42 |
182/267 |
5.9/6.4 |
0/1 |
27/23 |
45/38 |
324/368 |
2/0 |
2/0 |
6.9/9.7 |
506/635 |
6.5/7.9 |
08/30/19 @ Oregon St. |
52-36 |
-14.0
W
|
50/36 |
359/173 |
7.2/4.8 |
0/0 |
19/27 |
24/49 |
201/280 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
8.0/5.6 |
560/453 |
7.5/5.3 |
09/07/19 McNeese State |
56-14 |
0.0
W
|
43/45 |
182/180 |
4.2/4.0 |
2/0 |
23/12 |
32/25 |
403/71 |
0/2 |
1/2 |
12.2/2.6 |
585/251 |
7.7/3.5 |
09/14/19 @ Tulsa |
40-21 |
-14.0
W
|
46/50 |
343/170 |
7.5/3.4 |
1/0 |
12/19 |
22/35 |
149/236 |
1/0 |
0/3 |
6.8/6.2 |
492/406 |
7.2/4.6 |
09/21/19 @ Texas |
30-36 |
+7.0
W
|
54/41 |
234/222 |
4.3/5.4 |
0/2 |
19/20 |
32/28 |
262/281 |
2/1 |
2/0 |
7.7/10.0 |
496/503 |
5.6/7.3 |
09/28/19 Kansas St. |
26-13 |
-4.5
W
|
42/30 |
397/129 |
9.5/4.3 |
0/1 |
16/11 |
25/23 |
139/117 |
2/0 |
2/1 |
5.1/4.9 |
536/246 |
7.8/4.6 |
10/05/19 @ Texas Tech |
35-45 |
-10.0
L
|
49/32 |
255/171 |
5.2/5.3 |
2/0 |
22/26 |
37/44 |
251/418 |
3/0 |
7/1 |
5.7/9.3 |
506/589 |
5.4/7.6 |