Game Analysis
Clemson (-24.5) 40 LOUISVILLE 21
Louisville is one of the nation’s most improved teams under former Appalachian State coach Scott Satterfield and both of their spread losses were due to late scores by the opposition (sadly, I suffered in both of those). My model likes Louisville again, although I have some concern about defense after giving up an average of 44 points the last 3 games. Clemson has not been as explosive this season as they were last season and overall Louisville’s defense has only been 0.3 yppl worse than average this season while their offense has been really good (37.3 points per game and 6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team). Clemson’s defense should slow that attack down but my math model leans with Louisville and the Cardinals apply to a very good 206-96-5 ATS situation.
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.8
31.5
-
Run Yards
247.3
97.3
-
YPRP
6.9
3.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
22.1
17.7
-
Pass Att
34.4
33.2
-
Comp %
64.4%
53.2%
-
Pass Yards
273.4
178.4
-
Sacks
1.1
3.5
-
Sack Yards
8.1
22.2
-
Sack %
3.2%
9.4%
-
Pass Plays
35.5
36.7
-
Net Pass Yards
265.3
156.2
-
YPPP
7.5
4.3
Total
-
Total Plays
72.3
68.1
-
Total Yards
520.7
275.7
-
YPPL
7.2
4.0
TO
-
Int
0.5
1.1
-
Int %
1.6%
3.4%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.7
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.3
44.7
-
Run Yards
165.8
300.0
-
YPRP
5.5
6.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.4
17.0
-
Pass Att
31.4
26.4
-
Comp %
55.3%
64.4%
-
Pass Yards
230.3
214.9
-
Sacks
3.3
1.3
-
Sack Yards
18.4
7.5
-
Sack %
9.5%
4.5%
-
Pass Plays
34.7
27.7
-
Net Pass Yards
211.9
207.4
-
YPPP
6.1
7.5
Total
-
Total Plays
68.0
72.4
-
Total Yards
396.1
514.8
-
YPPL
5.8
7.1
TO
-
Int
0.9
0.5
-
Int %
2.7%
1.7%
-
Fumbles
1.0
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.9
1.2
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/29/18 Syracuse |
27-23 |
-25.5
L
|
48/24 |
329/74 |
6.9/3.1 |
2/0 |
17/26 |
29/41 |
146/237 |
1/1 |
4/2 |
4.4/5.5 |
475/311 |
5.9/4.6 |
10/06/18 @ Wake Forest |
63-3 |
-20.0
W
|
38/48 |
469/181 |
12.3/3.8 |
1/0 |
24/9 |
30/27 |
198/65 |
0/1 |
2/3 |
6.2/2.2 |
667/246 |
9.5/3.2 |
10/20/18 No Carolina St. |
41-7 |
-17.5
W
|
29/29 |
104/121 |
3.6/4.2 |
1/1 |
32/21 |
48/34 |
367/147 |
0/2 |
2/1 |
7.3/4.2 |
471/268 |
6.0/4.2 |
10/27/18 @ Florida St. |
59-10 |
-17.5
W
|
32/28 |
121/42 |
3.8/1.5 |
0/1 |
24/20 |
44/40 |
404/167 |
1/1 |
0/5 |
9.2/3.7 |
525/209 |
6.9/2.9 |
11/03/18 Louisville |
77-16 |
-38.5
W
|
37/30 |
464/93 |
12.5/3.1 |
1/1 |
14/17 |
20/34 |
126/116 |
1/2 |
0/6 |
6.3/2.9 |
590/209 |
10.4/3.0 |
11/10/18 @ Boston College |
27-7 |
-19.0
W
|
28/29 |
141/61 |
5.0/2.1 |
1/0 |
29/14 |
40/24 |
284/84 |
1/0 |
2/3 |
6.8/3.1 |
425/145 |
6.1/2.6 |
11/17/18 Duke |
35-6 |
-28.0
W
|
36/31 |
208/125 |
5.8/4.0 |
0/0 |
21/24 |
39/44 |
251/137 |
0/0 |
0/4 |
6.4/2.9 |
459/262 |
6.1/3.3 |
11/24/18 South Carolina |
56-35 |
-26.0
L
|
55/21 |
357/111 |
6.5/5.3 |
1/0 |
27/32 |
36/50 |
393/490 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
10.9/9.2 |
750/601 |
8.2/8.1 |
12/01/18 @ Pittsburgh |
42-10 |
-27.5
W
|
34/45 |
307/213 |
9.0/4.7 |
0/2 |
12/4 |
24/16 |
112/-10 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
4.5/-0.6 |
419/203 |
7.1/3.2 |
12/29/18 Notre Dame |
30-3 |
-12.5
W
|
34/28 |
230/116 |
6.8/4.1 |
1/1 |
27/17 |
39/34 |
308/134 |
0/1 |
3/6 |
7.3/3.4 |
538/250 |
7.1/3.7 |
01/07/19 @ Alabama |
44-16 |
+5.5
W
|
31/34 |
135/170 |
4.4/5.0 |
0/0 |
20/22 |
32/36 |
347/276 |
0/2 |
0/3 |
10.8/7.1 |
482/446 |
7.7/6.1 |
08/29/19 Georgia Tech |
52-14 |
-37.0
W
|
49/42 |
411/179 |
8.4/4.3 |
1/2 |
18/5 |
30/18 |
221/76 |
2/2 |
0/3 |
7.4/3.6 |
632/255 |
8.0/4.0 |
09/07/19 Texas A&M |
24-10 |
-17.0
L
|
30/23 |
144/75 |
4.8/3.3 |
0/1 |
24/24 |
35/42 |
246/218 |
1/1 |
2/2 |
6.6/5.0 |
390/293 |
5.8/4.4 |
09/14/19 @ Syracuse |
41-6 |
-27.5
W
|
29/32 |
159/71 |
5.5/2.2 |
0/0 |
23/16 |
42/29 |
391/123 |
2/1 |
0/8 |
9.3/3.3 |
550/194 |
7.7/2.8 |
09/21/19 Charlotte |
52-10 |
-41.5
W
|
38/37 |
246/164 |
6.5/4.4 |
1/0 |
19/8 |
25/19 |
249/52 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
9.6/2.5 |
495/216 |
7.7/3.7 |
09/28/19 @ North Carolina |
21-20 |
-27.0
L
|
28/33 |
141/166 |
5.0/5.0 |
1/0 |
18/15 |
30/27 |
197/124 |
0/0 |
1/3 |
6.4/4.1 |
338/290 |
5.7/4.6 |
10/12/19 Florida St. |
45-14 |
-27.5
W
|
53/20 |
320/76 |
6.0/3.8 |
1/1 |
24/15 |
38/35 |
253/94 |
1/3 |
0/3 |
6.7/2.5 |
573/170 |
6.3/2.9 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
10/05/18 Georgia Tech |
31-66 |
+4.5
L
|
21/65 |
96/542 |
4.6/8.3 |
2/0 |
27/1 |
44/2 |
359/12 |
1/0 |
2/0 |
7.8/6.0 |
455/554 |
6.8/8.3 |
10/13/18 @ Boston College |
20-38 |
+11.0
L
|
25/57 |
90/267 |
3.6/4.7 |
0/2 |
19/16 |
35/22 |
159/170 |
1/0 |
6/1 |
3.9/7.4 |
249/437 |
3.8/5.5 |
10/27/18 Wake Forest |
35-56 |
-3.0
L
|
33/45 |
198/377 |
6.0/8.4 |
1/0 |
30/16 |
54/24 |
347/218 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
6.2/8.7 |
545/595 |
6.1/8.5 |
11/03/18 @ Clemson |
16-77 |
+38.5
L
|
30/37 |
93/464 |
3.1/12.5 |
1/1 |
17/14 |
34/20 |
116/126 |
2/1 |
6/0 |
2.9/6.3 |
209/590 |
3.0/10.4 |
11/09/18 @ Syracuse |
23-54 |
+20.0
L
|
33/52 |
247/354 |
7.5/6.8 |
2/2 |
14/14 |
31/27 |
169/182 |
2/1 |
6/2 |
4.6/6.3 |
416/536 |
5.9/6.6 |
11/17/18 No Carolina St. |
10-52 |
+15.5
L
|
36/35 |
202/173 |
5.6/4.9 |
1/0 |
13/31 |
25/42 |
147/345 |
1/0 |
2/1 |
5.4/8.0 |
349/518 |
5.5/6.6 |
11/24/18 Kentucky |
10-56 |
+16.5
L
|
28/43 |
215/344 |
7.7/8.0 |
0/0 |
8/17 |
16/23 |
108/260 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
6.0/10.8 |
323/604 |
7.0/9.0 |
09/02/19 Notre Dame |
17-35 |
+19.0
W
|
42/39 |
284/240 |
6.8/6.2 |
3/1 |
12/14 |
28/23 |
106/179 |
0/0 |
4/3 |
3.3/6.9 |
390/419 |
5.3/6.4 |
09/07/19 Eastern Kentucky |
42-0 |
0.0
W
|
38/38 |
286/139 |
7.5/3.7 |
0/0 |
13/9 |
20/16 |
207/14 |
1/0 |
0/5 |
10.4/0.7 |
493/153 |
8.5/2.6 |
09/14/19 @ Western Kentucky |
38-21 |
-10.5
W
|
48/22 |
216/51 |
4.5/2.3 |
1/2 |
10/25 |
16/47 |
137/238 |
0/0 |
3/1 |
7.2/5.0 |
353/289 |
5.3/4.1 |
09/21/19 @ Florida St. |
24-35 |
+7.5
L
|
41/38 |
149/163 |
3.6/4.3 |
1/0 |
16/26 |
27/34 |
259/375 |
1/0 |
6/2 |
7.8/10.4 |
408/538 |
5.5/7.3 |
10/05/19 Boston College |
41-39 |
-4.5
L
|
43/45 |
238/257 |
5.5/5.7 |
0/1 |
23/15 |
34/32 |
428/304 |
0/1 |
0/0 |
12.6/9.5 |
666/561 |
8.6/7.3 |
10/12/19 @ Wake Forest |
62-59 |
+7.0
W
|
41/44 |
228/256 |
5.6/5.8 |
1/1 |
17/33 |
25/56 |
291/412 |
1/2 |
1/2 |
11.2/7.1 |
519/668 |
7.7/6.5 |