Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Cincinnati (+10) over CLEVELAND

Lean – Under (44.5)

The Bengals gained just 4.5 yards per play in Jeff Driskel’s first two starts as the backup quarterback was dealt a bad hand. Cincinnati played without their top two pass-catchers in A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert and Driskel’s misfortune may take a turn for the worse with remaining top target WR Tyler Boyd looking like he will also miss this game. Boyd is one of 4 receivers gaining 2 yards per route run in the slot and his absence will be the last straw for the Bengals passing attack as all of their remaining wide receivers are gaining less than 1 yard per route run. Joe Mixon will be expected to continue doing the heavy lifting on offense after seeing 63 opportunities the past 2 weeks. Cleveland’s rush defense ranks 18th and the Browns allow 7.0 yards per target to opposing running backs (26th) so it’s reasonable to believe Mixon might find success, but runs and check-downs lead to overall lower scoring because they keep the clock moving.

The Browns offense is gaining 6.8 yards per play with Freddie Kitchens at offensive coordinator, compared to 4.9 yards per play prior to week 9. Nick Chubb has been excellent since taking over as the starting running back, averaging a league-high 4.53 yards per rush after contact, and I expect Cleveland to pound the rock in this game versus a Bengals rush defense ranked 30th after dealing with numerous linebacker injuries all season. Geno Atkins has 61 pressures this year (4th), but Browns guards Kevin Zeitler and Joel Bitonio are both playing at a Pro Bowl-level and Atkins likely won’t make his usual impact on the interior.

I think both teams will lean on the ground game and our model favors Cleveland by 9.4 points with a predicted total of 42.0. While there isn’t really any value on the side, this game applies to a number of situations that favor the Bengals, including a 74-22-2 ATS division revenge situation and a 59-127-3 ATS home favorite letdown situation that applies to Cleveland. Cleveland was also eliminated from playoff contention yesterday, which might be a bit deflating. I’ll lean with Cincinnati plus the points based on the situation. This game also applies to a 711-513-6 Under situation and our math leans under so I’ll lean with the Under.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bengals
Browns

CIN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.9 36.6
Succ Pass Plays 47.8% 54.7%
Sack Rate 6.3% 6.3%
Int Rate 2.8% 2.3%
Deep Pass Rate 17.7% 19.0%
Big Pass Yards 44.3% 40.8%
NYPP 6.2 7.5

Rush

Rush Plays 23.0 30.6
RB YPR 4.4 4.5
Stuff Rate 24.2% 18.2%
Succ Rush Plays 47.2% 49.9%
Big Rush Yards 54.1% 41.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.6

Game

All Snaps 59.9 67.3
Early Down Succ 48.8% 52.7%
Succ Rate 47.2% 52.4%
Big Yards Rate 47.0% 43.0%
Yards Per Play 5.5 6.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.1 29.2
Run Ratio 38.2% 45.8%
Starting Field Pos 29.2 29.0
Game Control -3.9 3.9

Points 24.1 29.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@IND	34 – 23 W	-3.1	60.0% / 56.4%	6.7% / 3.6%	3.6% / 1.9%	7.6 / 5.5	65.0% / 54.5%	20.0% / 22.7%	5.1 / 3.4	50 / 77	64.3% / 53.3%	62.0% / 55.8%	38.8% / 10.0%	6.6 / 4.9	2.0% / 1.3%	40.0% / 28.6%	26.2 / 33.4
2	BAL	34 – 23 W	11.8	45.2% / 49.1%	0.0% / 7.0%	0.0% / 3.8%	6.3 / 6.3	42.9% / 50.0%	28.6% / 18.2%	3.9 / 3.0	70 / 79	45.6% / 50.0%	44.3% / 49.4%	43.7% / 35.5%	5.3 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.3%	40.0% / 27.8%	36.3 / 22.6
3	@CAR	21 – 31 L	-4.5	53.2% / 40.0%	4.3% / 4.0%	8.9% / 0.0%	7.0 / 5.9	53.8% / 47.6%	23.1% / 21.4%	5.1 / 5.5	60 / 67	56.0% / 46.2%	53.3% / 44.8%	58.1% / 54.8%	6.6 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	21.7% / 62.7%	23.5 / 30.5
4	@ATL	37 – 36 W	0.5	52.3% / 61.9%	6.8% / 7.1%	2.4% / 0.0%	7.0 / 9.6	56.5% / 45.8%	8.7% / 12.5%	4.3 / 3.8	67 / 66	50.9% / 52.0%	53.7% / 56.1%	33.4% / 37.2%	6.1 / 7.5	0.0% / 0.0%	34.3% / 36.4%	33.0 / 32.4
5	MIA	27 – 17 W	-4.6	68.2% / 77.3%	9.1% / 13.6%	5.0% / 10.5%	10.4 / 7.7	29.6% / 45.5%	25.9% / 13.6%	3.9 / 5.8	49 / 44	45.7% / 48.9%	46.9% / 61.4%	52.9% / 25.3%	6.8 / 6.8	0.0% / 2.3%	55.1% / 50.0%	22.9 / 25.5
6	PIT	21 – 28 L	-0.7	53.3% / 50.0%	6.7% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.7 / 8.0	46.2% / 40.9%	30.8% / 22.7%	4.8 / 5.1	58 / 68	52.2% / 46.2%	51.7% / 47.1%	25.1% / 60.2%	4.7 / 7.1	0.0% / 0.0%	22.4% / 32.4%	30.7 / 19.8
7	@KC	10 – 45 L	-19.4	42.9% / 61.0%	5.7% / 4.9%	3.0% / 2.6%	5.0 / 8.6	47.4% / 51.7%	26.3% / 10.3%	3.4 / 6.8	54 / 70	47.6% / 54.4%	44.4% / 57.1%	42.3% / 52.5%	4.4 / 7.9	0.0% / 0.0%	35.2% / 41.4%	26.6 / 24.0
8	TB	37 – 34 W	10.5	48.6% / 41.1%	5.7% / 10.7%	0.0% / 8.0%	7.5 / 8.0	42.9% / 51.9%	28.6% / 11.1%	5.0 / 4.7	63 / 83	50.0% / 39.7%	46.0% / 44.6%	54.6% / 49.0%	6.4 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	44.4% / 32.5%	29.5 / 24.5
10	NO	14 – 51 L	-21.4	46.2% / 70.4%	15.4% / 0.0%	9.1% / 0.0%	6.7 / 9.8	62.5% / 64.0%	6.3% / 10.0%	6.9 / 4.9	42 / 77	61.8% / 72.9%	52.4% / 66.2%	61.3% / 45.3%	6.8 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	38.1% / 64.9%	25.9 / 38.8
11	@BAL	21 – 24 L	-1.3	39.5% / 52.4%	2.6% / 9.5%	0.0% / 5.3%	5.4 / 6.6	37.5% / 47.4%	31.3% / 15.8%	3.0 / 4.7	54 / 78	38.5% / 53.6%	38.9% / 48.7%	56.5% / 33.7%	4.7 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	29.6% / 73.1%	31.5 / 31.6
12	CLE	20 – 35 L	-17.6	48.9% / 69.2%	2.1% / 0.0%	2.2% / 0.0%	5.2 / 9.9	55.0% / 47.2%	25.0% / 27.8%	6.5 / 2.4	67 / 62	54.9% / 60.4%	50.7% / 56.5%	40.1% / 51.2%	5.6 / 5.5	1.5% / 0.0%	29.9% / 58.1%	27.0 / 33.8
13	DEN	10 – 24 L	-6.2	38.1% / 43.5%	9.5% / 8.7%	2.6% / 0.0%	4.8 / 6.2	43.5% / 60.0%	34.8% / 17.1%	4.8 / 6.3	65 / 58	42.0% / 60.5%	40.0% / 53.4%	57.6% / 61.0%	4.8 / 6.2	3.1% / 1.7%	35.4% / 60.3%	22.7 / 32.7
14	@LAC	21 – 26 L	-6.9	46.7% / 51.6%	10.0% / 6.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.0 / 6.5	43.8% / 48.0%	21.9% / 20.0%	4.5 / 3.4	62 / 56	47.9% / 52.4%	45.2% / 50.0%	36.6% / 31.6%	4.8 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	51.6% / 44.6%	34.7 / 27.3
15	OAK	30 – 16 W	8.9	26.5% / 41.5%	2.9% / 12.2%	3.0% / 0.0%	3.6 / 5.6	34.1% / 43.8%	27.3% / 31.3%	4.0 / 4.3	78 / 57	25.5% / 47.7%	30.8% / 42.1%	57.6% / 54.2%	3.8 / 5.2	0.0% / 3.5%	56.4% / 28.1%	37.8 / 28.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PIT	21 – 21 T	-6.0	21.7% / 40.0%	15.2% / 8.9%	2.6% / 7.3%	3.3 / 7.0	39.5% / 44.4%	34.2% / 19.4%	4.7 / 4.4	84 / 81	30.8% / 42.2%	29.8% / 42.0%	64.5% / 48.4%	3.9 / 5.8	0.0% / 3.7%	45.2% / 44.4%	34.4 / 23.9
2	@NO	18 – 21 L	2.8	48.5% / 63.2%	9.1% / 7.9%	3.3% / 0.0%	7.1 / 5.6	33.3% / 37.5%	14.8% / 25.0%	3.4 / 2.6	60 / 62	43.5% / 60.4%	41.7% / 53.2%	43.4% / 30.8%	5.5 / 4.5	0.0% / 3.2%	45.0% / 38.7%	28.4 / 35.0
3	NYJ	21 – 17 W	-5.4	36.6% / 36.4%	9.8% / 6.1%	0.0% / 6.5%	4.6 / 4.9	42.9% / 50.0%	31.4% / 43.3%	3.9 / 3.6	76 / 63	42.6% / 42.6%	39.5% / 42.9%	32.3% / 22.4%	4.3 / 4.3	0.0% / 1.6%	46.1% / 47.6%	33.3 / 23.2
4	@OAK	42 – 45 L	2.1	37.2% / 53.3%	4.7% / 5.0%	4.9% / 3.5%	6.5 / 7.1	43.8% / 33.3%	21.9% / 36.7%	6.5 / 4.7	75 / 90	42.1% / 52.1%	40.0% / 46.7%	57.8% / 44.2%	6.5 / 6.3	2.7% / 0.0%	42.7% / 33.3%	26.1 / 34.9
5	BAL	12 – 9 W	0.7	62.1% / 80.6%	17.2% / 6.5%	4.2% / 3.4%	10.5 / 9.5	46.4% / 48.0%	35.7% / 32.0%	4.0 / 4.6	57 / 56	45.5% / 47.8%	54.4% / 66.1%	57.7% / 35.1%	7.3 / 7.3	0.0% / 1.8%	49.1% / 44.6%	19.7 / 31.4
6	LAC	14 – 38 L	-14.7	39.2% / 45.5%	9.8% / 4.5%	4.3% / 4.8%	4.2 / 9.2	42.9% / 63.2%	33.3% / 13.2%	4.9 / 6.5	72 / 60	41.5% / 68.8%	40.3% / 56.7%	50.2% / 69.2%	4.4 / 7.5	0.0% / 0.0%	29.2% / 63.3%	34.2 / 30.5
7	@TB	23 – 26 L	-6.5	38.5% / 51.8%	12.8% / 7.1%	0.0% / 3.8%	4.8 / 6.1	39.1% / 42.4%	30.4% / 30.3%	5.2 / 3.5	62 / 89	45.7% / 49.3%	38.7% / 48.3%	41.0% / 35.4%	4.9 / 5.1	1.6% / 2.2%	37.1% / 37.1%	37.6 / 21.3
8	@PIT	18 – 33 L	-5.4	36.8% / 51.4%	5.3% / 2.7%	2.8% / 2.8%	4.3 / 6.8	38.1% / 59.4%	38.1% / 12.5%	3.5 / 5.3	59 / 69	40.0% / 58.5%	37.3% / 55.1%	55.3% / 39.8%	4.0 / 6.1	0.0% / 1.4%	35.6% / 46.4%	30.2 / 27.8
9	KC	21 – 37 L	-10.7	46.7% / 63.6%	4.4% / 6.1%	2.3% / 3.2%	6.4 / 10.9	56.0% / 58.3%	24.0% / 29.2%	4.1 / 5.8	70 / 57	51.9% / 61.7%	50.0% / 61.4%	26.0% / 62.1%	5.5 / 8.8	0.0% / 0.0%	35.7% / 42.1%	21.8 / 33.3
10	ATL	28 – 16 W	8.8	71.4% / 54.7%	0.0% / 3.8%	4.8% / 0.0%	10.3 / 5.9	45.2% / 47.4%	19.4% / 36.8%	6.9 / 3.7	52 / 72	62.5% / 57.4%	55.8% / 52.8%	45.7% / 36.1%	8.3 / 5.3	0.0% / 2.8%	59.6% / 26.4%	23.6 / 27.3
12	@CIN	35 – 20 W	17.6	69.2% / 48.9%	0.0% / 2.1%	0.0% / 2.2%	9.9 / 5.2	47.2% / 55.0%	27.8% / 25.0%	2.4 / 6.5	62 / 67	60.4% / 54.9%	56.5% / 50.7%	51.2% / 40.1%	5.5 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.5%	58.1% / 29.9%	33.8 / 27.0
13	@HOU	13 – 29 L	-14.2	58.5% / 45.7%	0.0% / 11.4%	7.3% / 0.0%	9.7 / 5.6	55.6% / 47.5%	33.3% / 7.5%	3.4 / 4.7	50 / 75	63.4% / 47.4%	58.0% / 46.7%	52.6% / 37.1%	8.6 / 5.1	2.0% / 0.0%	18.0% / 53.3%	19.9 / 29.5
14	CAR	26 – 20 W	-0.4	37.5% / 40.9%	4.2% / 2.3%	0.0% / 2.3%	9.7 / 6.8	34.8% / 56.0%	30.4% / 24.0%	5.1 / 3.8	47 / 69	38.2% / 48.1%	36.2% / 46.4%	68.0% / 45.3%	7.4 / 5.7	4.3% / 0.0%	48.9% / 36.2%	25.2 / 37.3
15	@DEN	17 – 16 W	1.2	48.5% / 49.0%	6.1% / 4.1%	3.2% / 4.3%	5.3 / 4.9	48.3% / 40.0%	17.2% / 40.0%	4.7 / 1.7	62 / 69	52.2% / 50.0%	48.4% / 46.4%	38.1% / 12.9%	5.0 / 3.9	1.6% / 0.0%	46.8% / 29.0%	34.8 / 20.2

Cincinnati Bengals @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Dec 23

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis