Game Analysis
South Carolina (-4.5) 29 Virginia 23
Saturday, 9 am Pacific
Virginia and coach Bronco Mendenhall had a breakthrough season but the 7-5 Cavaliers only beat one good team (16-13 over Miami). South Carolina is also 7-5 but all of their losses were to good teams (Georgia, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Florida, and Clemson) and the Gamecocks are clearly the better team in this match-up.
South Carolina’s offense averaged 6.4 yards per play in 10 FBS games with Jake Bentley at quarterback (he missed the Missouri game) while facing teams that would allow just 5.4 yppl to an average offensive unit. Top WR Deebo Samuel has decided to sit out rather than risk injury but his loss will probably be felt more on special teams than on offense. Samuel’s 9.1 yards per target average is not that much more than the 9.0 ypt average for the rest of the receivers and young star Shi Smith (10.7 ypt on 56 targets) figures to get more targets than he did as the #3 receiver during the season. That attack has an advantage over a Virginia defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl) and the Gamecocks are projected to collect close to 400 yards at 6.2 yards per play in this game.
Not having an advantage with their offense is troubling for a sub-par Virginia offense that averaged 5.9 yppl but did so against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack. South Carolina’s defense allowed 5.8 yppl but they faced teams that would combine to average 6.5 yppl against an average defensive team and the Gamecocks come into this game better than their season numbers on defense. Star linebacker Bryson Allen-Williams had 10 tackles for loss in just 8 games before missing the final 4 games and he’s eager to return to the field for this game after getting cleared to play (he was actually cleared to play in week 14 against Akron but chose to save himself for the bowl game). Future NFL cornerback, freshman Jaycee Horn missed the last two games and the pass defense wasn’t as good without him. Horn is also returning to the lineup for this game and South Carolina is 0.2 yppl better than their season numbers with those two back. I project just 340 yards at 4.7 yppl for Virginia in this game.
Overall the math favors South Carolina by 6.4 points even after deducting 0.5 points from the Gamecocks’ special teams rating for being without Samuel, who averaged 24.8 yards per kick return. The Gamecocks do apply to a 9-33 ATS bowl situation that will keep me from leaning with them here. The projected total is 52.0 points after adding 1.4 points for the good weather in Charlotte so there is a bit of value on the under – although not enough to get me to lean that way. I would lean under if the total got up to 55 points, which is a key number.
Rush
-
Run Plays
32.2
41.7
-
Run Yards
155.4
214.7
-
YPRP
5.2
5.4
Pass
-
Pass Comp
20.6
20.2
-
Pass Att
33.5
32.1
-
Comp %
61.4%
62.9%
-
Pass Yards
265.0
227.1
-
Sacks
1.7
2.0
-
Sack Yards
11.4
12.1
-
Sack %
4.9%
5.9%
-
Pass Plays
35.2
34.1
-
Net Pass Yards
253.6
215.0
-
YPPP
7.2
6.3
Total
-
Total Plays
67.4
75.8
-
Total Yards
420.4
441.8
-
YPPL
6.2
5.8
TO
-
Int
1.1
0.5
-
Int %
3.3%
1.4%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.7
-
Turnovers
1.7
1.2
Rush
-
Run Plays
34.8
32.7
-
Run Yards
170.5
156.8
-
YPRP
5.4
5.2
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.2
14.9
-
Pass Att
27.1
27.7
-
Comp %
63.4%
53.9%
-
Pass Yards
211.9
180.8
-
Sacks
2.4
1.9
-
Sack Yards
15.8
12.2
-
Sack %
8.2%
6.5%
-
Pass Plays
29.5
29.6
-
Net Pass Yards
196.1
168.7
-
YPPP
6.6
5.7
Total
-
Total Plays
64.3
62.3
-
Total Yards
382.4
337.6
-
YPPL
6.0
5.4
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.3
-
Int %
2.8%
4.5%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.3
-
Turnovers
1.5
1.6
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/01/18 Coastal Carolina |
49-15 |
-29.5
W
|
36/35 |
240/130 |
6.7/3.7 |
0/1 |
25/13 |
35/18 |
277/73 |
0/0 |
1/3 |
7.7/3.5 |
517/203 |
7.2/3.6 |
09/08/18 Georgia |
17-41 |
+10.0
L
|
18/49 |
59/289 |
3.3/5.9 |
0/0 |
31/16 |
48/19 |
239/188 |
2/1 |
1/2 |
4.9/9.0 |
298/477 |
4.4/6.8 |
09/22/18 @ Vanderbilt |
37-14 |
-2.5
W
|
47/30 |
274/131 |
5.8/4.4 |
2/1 |
19/19 |
28/40 |
260/174 |
1/1 |
1/2 |
9.0/4.1 |
534/305 |
7.0/4.2 |
09/29/18 @ Kentucky |
10-24 |
-1.5
L
|
31/44 |
156/196 |
5.0/4.5 |
1/0 |
17/13 |
34/20 |
169/132 |
3/1 |
4/0 |
4.4/6.6 |
325/328 |
4.7/5.1 |
10/06/18 Missouri |
37-35 |
+1.5
W
|
46/43 |
138/306 |
3.0/7.1 |
1/0 |
20/17 |
35/36 |
240/201 |
0/2 |
1/1 |
6.7/5.4 |
378/507 |
4.6/6.3 |
10/13/18 Texas A&M |
23-26 |
+2.5
L
|
17/35 |
86/139 |
5.1/4.0 |
1/0 |
17/25 |
35/37 |
213/338 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
5.9/8.7 |
299/477 |
5.6/6.4 |
10/27/18 Tennessee |
27-24 |
-8.5
L
|
38/31 |
240/151 |
6.3/4.9 |
0/0 |
11/27 |
16/39 |
144/202 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
8.5/4.9 |
384/353 |
7.0/4.9 |
11/03/18 @ Mississippi |
48-44 |
0.0
W
|
31/46 |
168/267 |
5.4/5.8 |
0/1 |
22/31 |
32/48 |
351/362 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
10.3/7.1 |
519/629 |
8.0/6.5 |
11/10/18 @ Florida |
31-35 |
+6.5
W
|
33/57 |
158/395 |
4.8/6.9 |
0/1 |
18/15 |
28/21 |
230/147 |
1/0 |
2/2 |
7.7/6.4 |
388/542 |
6.2/6.8 |
11/17/18 Chattanooga |
49-9 |
0.0
W
|
40/22 |
253/98 |
6.3/4.5 |
0/1 |
29/18 |
36/37 |
349/238 |
0/1 |
2/2 |
9.2/6.1 |
602/336 |
7.7/5.5 |
11/24/18 @ Clemson |
35-56 |
+26.0
W
|
21/55 |
111/357 |
5.3/6.5 |
0/1 |
32/27 |
50/36 |
490/393 |
1/0 |
3/0 |
9.2/10.9 |
601/750 |
8.1/8.2 |
12/01/18 Akron |
28-3 |
-29.5
L
|
36/34 |
204/134 |
5.7/3.9 |
2/3 |
14/19 |
27/39 |
177/155 |
2/0 |
2/5 |
6.1/3.5 |
381/289 |
5.9/3.7 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/01/18 Richmond |
42-13 |
-14.0
W
|
45/16 |
315/49 |
7.0/3.1 |
0/0 |
14/12 |
26/29 |
179/185 |
1/2 |
3/2 |
6.2/6.0 |
494/234 |
6.7/5.0 |
09/08/18 @ Indiana |
16-20 |
+5.0
W
|
38/44 |
193/237 |
5.1/5.4 |
1/0 |
12/16 |
24/22 |
105/150 |
0/1 |
1/0 |
4.2/6.8 |
298/387 |
4.7/5.9 |
09/15/18 Ohio |
45-31 |
-3.5
W
|
26/27 |
207/150 |
8.0/5.6 |
3/2 |
25/16 |
30/31 |
354/218 |
0/0 |
3/3 |
10.7/6.4 |
561/368 |
9.5/6.0 |
09/22/18 Louisville |
27-3 |
-5.0
W
|
38/25 |
188/73 |
4.9/2.9 |
0/1 |
17/16 |
26/28 |
190/132 |
1/2 |
1/4 |
7.0/4.1 |
378/205 |
5.8/3.6 |
09/29/18 @ No Carolina St. |
21-35 |
+6.0
L
|
25/37 |
123/178 |
4.9/4.8 |
0/0 |
20/22 |
35/32 |
228/257 |
2/0 |
4/0 |
5.8/8.0 |
351/435 |
5.5/6.3 |
10/13/18 Miami Fla |
16-13 |
+7.0
W
|
36/27 |
171/165 |
4.8/6.1 |
0/0 |
12/15 |
21/29 |
66/174 |
3/3 |
4/2 |
2.6/5.6 |
237/339 |
3.9/5.8 |
10/20/18 @ Duke |
28-14 |
+7.0
W
|
42/23 |
187/83 |
4.5/3.6 |
0/0 |
21/23 |
33/41 |
189/237 |
0/2 |
2/4 |
5.4/5.3 |
376/320 |
4.9/4.7 |
10/27/18 North Carolina |
31-21 |
-9.0
W
|
40/21 |
231/71 |
5.8/3.4 |
0/1 |
18/22 |
27/38 |
198/265 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
6.6/6.8 |
429/336 |
6.1/5.6 |
11/02/18 Pittsburgh |
13-23 |
-7.0
L
|
21/35 |
89/279 |
4.2/8.0 |
1/0 |
17/7 |
24/14 |
159/42 |
0/0 |
5/4 |
5.5/2.3 |
248/321 |
5.0/6.1 |
11/10/18 Liberty |
45-24 |
-24.0
L
|
39/43 |
221/210 |
5.7/4.9 |
0/0 |
14/15 |
22/27 |
168/144 |
1/3 |
0/1 |
7.6/5.1 |
389/354 |
6.4/5.0 |
11/17/18 @ Georgia Tech |
27-30 |
+5.0
W
|
31/51 |
144/275 |
4.6/5.4 |
1/0 |
22/1 |
28/8 |
259/30 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
8.6/3.3 |
403/305 |
6.6/5.1 |
11/23/18 @ Virginia Tech |
31-34 |
-4.5
L
|
36/43 |
167/257 |
4.6/6.0 |
3/0 |
14/14 |
29/33 |
258/190 |
0/2 |
1/1 |
8.6/5.6 |
425/447 |
6.4/5.8 |