Game Analysis
Auburn (-3.5) 28 Purdue 26
Rotation #241 – Friday, 10:30 am Pacific
It’s been a disappointing season for Auburn, starting the season in the Top-10 and entering this lower-tier bowl game with a 7-5 record. Four of those 5 losses were to very good teams (LSU, Miss State, Georgia, and Alabama) but Purdue is capable of an upset, as the Boilermakers proved with their 49-20 win over Ohio State. Purdue is just 6-6 but 4 of their losses were by 4 points or less to bowl teams and they’re 6-3 since starting the season with 3 losses.
The most interesting battle in this game will be Purdue’s good offense (6.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) facing off against a very good Auburn defense that’s been an equally good 0.9 yppl better than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defensive team). Not having top DL Nick Coe makes that Tigers’ stop unit worse, as Coe lead the team in sacks and was second in total tackles for loss with 13.5 despite missing basically two games. The math projects 407 yards at 5.8 yards per play for Purdue in this game.
Auburn’s offense was a major disappointment this season, as the rebuilt offensive line couldn’t open running lanes for the Tigers’ talented backs and didn’t give NFL-bound quarterback Jarrett Stidham enough time to look downfield, which led to just 11.6 yards per completion (Stidham averaged 12.8 ypa last season). Overall Auburn was just 0.1 yppl better than average offensively (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and Purdue’s defense was also 0.1 yppl better than average for the season (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppl against an average team). I actually rate the Boilermakers’ defense a bit better than that with the return of senior S Jacob Thieneman, who was 2nd on the team in tackles before missing the final 3 games of the regular season. The run defense was horrible in their games that Thieneman missed (7.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yprp against an average team) and having their captain back should help. I project 402 yards at 5.6 yppl for Auburn in this game.
Purdue has a slight edge in projected yardage but Auburn has an edge in special teams and projected turnovers and overall the math favors the Tigers by 2 points with a total of 53.6 points. I don’t see enough value to even have a lean in this game.
Rush
-
Run Plays
28.4
34.3
-
Run Yards
142.5
167.3
-
YPRP
5.5
5.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
25.8
23.8
-
Pass Att
39.2
38.3
-
Comp %
65.7%
62.1%
-
Pass Yards
309.7
278.7
-
Sacks
2.3
2.1
-
Sack Yards
13.3
12.9
-
Sack %
5.4%
5.2%
-
Pass Plays
41.4
40.3
-
Net Pass Yards
296.3
265.8
-
YPPP
7.2
6.6
Total
-
Total Plays
69.8
74.6
-
Total Yards
452.2
445.9
-
YPPL
6.5
6.0
TO
-
Int
0.9
0.9
-
Int %
2.3%
2.4%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.3
-
Turnovers
1.4
1.2
Rush
-
Run Plays
33.8
34.4
-
Run Yards
142.4
151.2
-
YPRP
4.7
4.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
19.0
18.1
-
Pass Att
31.3
31.9
-
Comp %
60.8%
56.7%
-
Pass Yards
217.0
228.3
-
Sacks
2.1
2.7
-
Sack Yards
15.3
17.3
-
Sack %
6.3%
7.9%
-
Pass Plays
33.4
34.6
-
Net Pass Yards
201.7
211.0
-
YPPP
6.0
6.1
Total
-
Total Plays
67.2
69.0
-
Total Yards
359.4
379.5
-
YPPL
5.3
5.5
TO
-
Int
0.5
0.8
-
Int %
1.4%
2.6%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.6
-
Turnovers
0.8
1.4
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/30/18 Northwestern |
27-31 |
-1.0
L
|
23/40 |
210/176 |
9.1/4.4 |
0/0 |
30/23 |
46/37 |
262/235 |
3/0 |
2/0 |
5.5/6.4 |
472/411 |
6.6/5.3 |
09/08/18 Eastern Mich |
19-20 |
-17.0
L
|
41/24 |
346/93 |
8.4/3.9 |
2/0 |
14/22 |
24/33 |
131/321 |
0/1 |
1/6 |
5.2/8.2 |
477/414 |
7.2/6.6 |
09/15/18 Missouri |
37-40 |
+6.5
W
|
15/43 |
53/255 |
3.5/5.9 |
0/0 |
38/26 |
55/43 |
491/359 |
1/1 |
1/1 |
8.8/8.2 |
544/614 |
7.7/7.1 |
09/22/18 Boston College |
30-13 |
+7.0
W
|
35/30 |
116/111 |
3.3/3.7 |
2/0 |
21/15 |
28/29 |
246/118 |
0/4 |
5/4 |
7.5/3.6 |
362/229 |
5.3/3.6 |
09/29/18 @ Nebraska |
42-28 |
-3.0
W
|
36/36 |
190/277 |
5.3/7.7 |
0/0 |
25/25 |
42/42 |
326/312 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
7.6/7.1 |
516/589 |
6.5/7.4 |
10/13/18 @ Illinois |
46-7 |
-10.5
W
|
39/27 |
243/99 |
6.2/3.7 |
0/0 |
26/15 |
37/29 |
368/164 |
1/1 |
2/4 |
9.4/5.0 |
611/263 |
7.8/4.4 |
10/20/18 Ohio St. |
49-20 |
+13.0
W
|
27/24 |
175/78 |
6.5/3.3 |
0/0 |
25/49 |
43/73 |
361/468 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
8.0/6.3 |
536/546 |
7.4/5.6 |
10/27/18 @ Michigan St. |
13-23 |
+2.5
L
|
12/36 |
65/129 |
5.4/3.6 |
0/1 |
29/26 |
49/46 |
274/310 |
3/0 |
1/1 |
5.5/6.6 |
339/439 |
5.5/5.3 |
11/03/18 Iowa |
38-36 |
-3.0
L
|
30/35 |
102/129 |
3.4/3.7 |
0/1 |
23/21 |
32/32 |
332/268 |
2/0 |
1/1 |
10.1/8.1 |
434/397 |
6.9/5.8 |
11/10/18 @ Minnesota |
10-41 |
-10.0
L
|
28/39 |
112/267 |
4.0/6.8 |
1/0 |
20/11 |
31/20 |
127/148 |
0/1 |
3/2 |
3.7/6.7 |
239/415 |
3.9/6.8 |
11/17/18 Wisconsin |
44-47 |
-4.0
L
|
28/49 |
98/396 |
3.5/8.1 |
1/1 |
31/16 |
48/24 |
356/151 |
0/0 |
3/1 |
7.0/6.0 |
454/547 |
5.7/7.4 |
11/24/18 @ Indiana |
28-21 |
-3.5
W
|
27/28 |
160/152 |
5.9/5.4 |
0/0 |
27/36 |
35/51 |
282/335 |
1/1 |
5/2 |
7.1/6.3 |
442/487 |
6.6/6.0 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/01/18 Washington |
21-16 |
-2.0
W
|
42/28 |
166/137 |
4.0/4.9 |
0/1 |
26/18 |
36/32 |
256/271 |
0/1 |
2/5 |
6.7/7.3 |
422/408 |
5.3/6.3 |
09/08/18 Alabama State |
63-9 |
0.0
W
|
56/31 |
433/86 |
7.7/2.8 |
4/1 |
8/13 |
14/29 |
138/119 |
0/3 |
0/4 |
9.9/3.6 |
571/205 |
8.2/3.2 |
09/15/18 LSU |
21-22 |
-10.5
L
|
36/40 |
140/127 |
3.9/3.2 |
0/0 |
16/15 |
28/34 |
190/243 |
2/0 |
1/2 |
6.6/6.8 |
330/370 |
5.1/4.9 |
09/22/18 Arkansas |
34-3 |
-29.5
W
|
31/36 |
114/168 |
3.7/4.7 |
0/1 |
15/13 |
22/31 |
113/125 |
0/1 |
4/2 |
4.3/3.8 |
227/293 |
4.0/4.2 |
09/29/18 Southern Miss |
24-13 |
-28.0
L
|
33/18 |
122/61 |
3.7/3.4 |
1/1 |
19/30 |
33/44 |
219/203 |
0/2 |
3/2 |
6.1/4.4 |
341/264 |
4.9/4.1 |
10/06/18 @ Mississippi St. |
9-23 |
-3.5
L
|
18/56 |
115/353 |
6.4/6.3 |
2/0 |
19/9 |
38/17 |
187/69 |
0/1 |
3/0 |
4.6/4.1 |
302/422 |
5.1/5.8 |
10/13/18 Tennessee |
24-30 |
-16.5
L
|
31/32 |
157/88 |
5.1/2.8 |
1/0 |
28/21 |
45/32 |
300/310 |
2/0 |
2/3 |
6.4/8.9 |
457/398 |
5.9/5.9 |
10/20/18 @ Mississippi |
31-16 |
-4.0
W
|
45/34 |
274/157 |
6.1/4.6 |
0/0 |
13/27 |
22/46 |
210/290 |
0/0 |
1/5 |
9.1/5.7 |
484/447 |
7.1/5.3 |
11/03/18 Texas A&M |
28-24 |
-3.5
W
|
18/42 |
37/228 |
2.1/5.4 |
0/1 |
19/16 |
30/32 |
241/187 |
0/1 |
3/5 |
7.3/5.1 |
278/415 |
5.5/5.3 |
11/10/18 @ Georgia |
10-27 |
+12.5
L
|
20/42 |
102/329 |
5.1/7.8 |
0/0 |
25/15 |
37/22 |
172/193 |
0/1 |
0/2 |
4.6/8.0 |
274/522 |
4.8/7.9 |
11/17/18 Liberty |
53-0 |
-28.0
W
|
58/25 |
360/72 |
6.2/2.9 |
0/2 |
14/9 |
21/28 |
195/63 |
0/2 |
1/3 |
8.9/2.0 |
555/135 |
6.9/2.4 |
11/24/18 @ Alabama |
21-52 |
+24.5
L
|
40/25 |
147/133 |
3.7/5.3 |
0/0 |
15/26 |
32/33 |
136/367 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
3.9/10.8 |
283/500 |
3.8/8.5 |