Game Analysis

Lean – Under (-61) – HAWAII (-1)  29   Louisiana Tech  28

Hawaii Bowl – Saturday, 7:30 pm Pacific

This game basically comes down to how well Louisiana Tech’s bad offense performs against Hawaii’s even worse defense. Hawaii allowed 35.4 points and 6.4 yards per play to a collection of mostly bad offensive teams that would combine to average only 23.9 points and 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. I suspect the Warriors will allow less than normal in this game, as Louisiana Tech would average only 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team and they averaged just 21.5 points per game against FBS opponents that were mostly worse than average defensive teams. Louisiana Tech did not score more than 31 points against any FBS opponent and the Bulldogs faced a few defenses that are just as bad as Hawaii’s defense. In those games LA Tech managed just 31 points (against UTSA), 31 points (against UTEP) and 28 points (against Rice). The math projected 29.5 points for Louisiana Tech in this game before adjusting for the windy conditions, which seems about right given their scoring against other bad defensive teams.

Hawaii’s offense posted some big numbers, averaging 436 yards at 6.3 yards per play and 32 points per game but the Rainbow Warriors faced teams that would combine to allow 30.8 points and 6.1 yppl to an average offensive team, so that unit was just 0.2 yppl better than average. Louisiana Tech’s defense only allowed 24.4 points and 5.2 yppl to FBS opponents but those opponents would combine to average only 5.0 yppl against an average defense so the Bulldogs are a bit worse than average defensively. My math projects 417 yards at 6.3 yppl for Hawaii in this game.

Overall the math picks this game even at 28 points apiece. I have no opinion on the side but the 15 mph winds should drop the projected total by about 3 points, which gives me a prediction of 56 total points. I’ll lean Under the total.