Game Analysis
Best Bet – *Over (48.5) – Green Bay at SEATTLE
Lean – Green Bay (+3)
Seattle’s defense is overrated as they’ve been a completely different unit without Earl Thomas. The Seahawks ranked 15th in success rate allowed before losing Thomas at the end of week 4 and they rank 30th is success rate allowed since his injury surrendering 1.1 more yards per play. Conversely, Green Bay’s offense is trending upwards. Aaron Rodgers is no longer dealing with mobility restriction like he was earlier in the season and the Packers have found an effective ground game. Aaron Jones’ 55% rush success rate leads the NFL and his 6.1 yards per rush since joining the league last year is best all qualifying running backs. Jones didn’t play more than 30 snaps in the first 7 weeks, but he’s been featured more since the bye and received 83% of the carries last Sunday. The Packers have the league’s 2nd-best rush offense and there still could be room for improvement with Jones in a workhorse role.
Seattle is the only offense in the league with more runs than passes, which gives them a favorable matchup against Green Bay’s defense ranking 28th against the run and 12th against the pass. Even Russell Wilson is using his legs more often with 9 rushes last Sunday after averaging just 3.0 rushes per game coming into the week. Wilson ranks 8th in expected points added with his legs among quarterbacks, after finishing second last season, and the Seahawks will gain an extra dimension on offense if he continues to utilize his scrambling ability like he did versus the Rams. DE Nick Perry is out for the Packers so we’ll see more of Reggie Gilbert, who has the same amount of pressures and more sacks in 32 fewer pass rushes than Perry this season. Although, Gilbert will have an unfavorable matchup lining up across from Duane Brown, who ranks 15th among tackles in pass blocking efficiency.
Our model leans with the Packers but there is more value on the over and I’ll take the Over in a 1-Star Best Bet at 48.5 points or less (Strong Opinion Over 49).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.9
34.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.5%
45.6%
-
Sack Rate
7.4%
9.9%
-
Int Rate
0.6%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.2%
18.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.1%
49.8%
-
NYPP
7.1
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.8
27.7
-
RB YPR
4.9
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
17.6%
18.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.4%
47.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
47.8%
35.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.1
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
63.7
62.4
-
Early Down Succ
51.0%
47.9%
-
Succ Rate
50.0%
45.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
48.1%
45.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.4
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.7%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.5
29.1
-
Run Ratio
35.8%
45.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.0
30.5
-
Game Control
-1.2
1.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
29.0
35.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.3%
50.5%
-
Sack Rate
10.8%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
3.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.2%
15.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
49.0%
35.2%
-
NYPP
7.5
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
32.3
24.2
-
RB YPR
4.5
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
20.7%
20.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.7%
48.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.5%
47.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
5.0
Game
-
All Snaps
61.3
59.3
-
Early Down Succ
48.0%
51.3%
-
Succ Rate
46.8%
48.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.3%
42.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.5
29.4
-
Run Ratio
52.9%
40.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.7
25.9
-
Game Control
2.3
-2.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
CHI |
24 – 23 W |
-9.5 |
43.9% / 35.9% |
9.8% / 10.3% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 4.0 |
27.8% / 59.3% |
16.7% / 18.5% |
3.8 / 5.1 |
59 / 66 |
40.0% / 48.9% |
39.0% / 45.5% |
59.5% / 38.1% |
6.3 / 4.5 |
1.7% / 1.5% |
30.5% / 40.9% |
30.7 / 25.7 |
2 |
MIN |
29 – 29 T |
6.3 |
48.9% / 56.0% |
8.9% / 4.0% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
5.6 / 8.2 |
54.2% / 44.4% |
25.0% / 5.6% |
4.1 / 3.8 |
69 / 68 |
55.4% / 53.7% |
50.7% / 52.9% |
31.3% / 44.4% |
5.1 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.8% / 26.5% |
29.9 / 26.5 |
3 |
@WAS |
17 – 31 L |
-12.0 |
34.7% / 50.0% |
8.2% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 5.0% |
4.9 / 11.0 |
64.7% / 32.4% |
11.8% / 10.8% |
5.9 / 4.5 |
66 / 57 |
42.9% / 40.5% |
42.4% / 38.6% |
35.9% / 60.1% |
5.2 / 6.8 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
25.8% / 64.9% |
26.4 / 30.8 |
4 |
BUF |
22 – 0 W |
12.8 |
47.6% / 27.5% |
4.8% / 17.5% |
2.5% / 6.1% |
6.7 / 2.2 |
56.3% / 43.8% |
37.5% / 25.0% |
4.4 / 3.6 |
74 / 56 |
50.0% / 37.5% |
51.4% / 32.1% |
49.6% / 31.0% |
5.7 / 2.6 |
1.4% / 1.8% |
43.2% / 28.6% |
27.4 / 27.3 |
5 |
@DET |
23 – 31 L |
-13.9 |
80.6% / 52.9% |
11.1% / 17.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
11.8 / 10.0 |
52.4% / 34.5% |
9.5% / 27.6% |
4.7 / 3.3 |
57 / 46 |
55.6% / 32.6% |
70.2% / 41.3% |
41.2% / 37.7% |
9.2 / 5.8 |
5.3% / 0.0% |
36.8% / 63.0% |
20.5 / 46.1 |
6 |
SF |
33 – 30 W |
-1.4 |
37.5% / 52.0% |
6.3% / 8.0% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
8.4 / 9.1 |
52.4% / 66.7% |
14.3% / 13.3% |
5.5 / 5.8 |
69 / 55 |
44.4% / 67.4% |
42.0% / 60.0% |
55.5% / 54.1% |
7.6 / 7.3 |
0.0% / 3.6% |
30.4% / 54.5% |
32.0 / 25.9 |
8 |
@LA |
27 – 29 L |
2.6 |
45.5% / 43.9% |
9.1% / 12.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.7 / 6.9 |
63.2% / 42.9% |
21.1% / 28.6% |
5.6 / 3.9 |
52 / 76 |
58.1% / 43.6% |
51.9% / 43.4% |
69.4% / 51.3% |
6.9 / 5.5 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
36.5% / 46.1% |
21.1 / 31.7 |
9 |
@NE |
17 – 31 L |
-5.1 |
47.7% / 55.3% |
2.3% / 5.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 8.2 |
60.0% / 47.1% |
12.0% / 20.6% |
4.7 / 3.7 |
69 / 72 |
54.5% / 61.1% |
52.2% / 51.4% |
36.4% / 55.1% |
5.3 / 6.1 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
36.2% / 47.2% |
19.3 / 29.2 |
10 |
MIA |
31 – 12 W |
9.9 |
50.0% / 37.2% |
6.7% / 14.0% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
6.1 / 3.8 |
50.0% / 56.5% |
10.7% / 13.0% |
7.1 / 5.7 |
58 / 66 |
58.5% / 45.8% |
50.0% / 43.9% |
54.5% / 38.1% |
6.6 / 4.5 |
1.7% / 1.5% |
48.3% / 34.8% |
35.7 / 31.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DEN |
24 – 27 L |
-1.9 |
35.9% / 57.5% |
15.4% / 2.5% |
6.1% / 7.7% |
6.2 / 8.1 |
18.8% / 50.0% |
25.0% / 21.9% |
4.0 / 4.6 |
55 / 72 |
34.9% / 58.3% |
30.9% / 54.2% |
63.7% / 53.2% |
5.6 / 6.5 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
29.1% / 44.4% |
27.4 / 26.6 |
2 |
@CHI |
17 – 24 L |
-7.4 |
43.6% / 52.8% |
15.4% / 5.6% |
3.0% / 5.9% |
5.2 / 5.1 |
45.5% / 48.3% |
13.6% / 13.8% |
3.4 / 3.0 |
61 / 65 |
44.9% / 55.1% |
44.3% / 50.8% |
23.2% / 6.3% |
4.5 / 4.2 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
36.1% / 44.6% |
24.5 / 33.6 |
3 |
DAL |
24 – 13 W |
8.3 |
42.9% / 28.2% |
7.1% / 12.8% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
6.5 / 3.5 |
30.0% / 52.6% |
30.0% / 15.8% |
2.9 / 8.7 |
68 / 58 |
34.0% / 39.5% |
35.3% / 36.2% |
34.8% / 51.2% |
4.4 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
58.8% / 32.8% |
27.2 / 25.9 |
4 |
@ARI |
20 – 17 W |
2.0 |
48.1% / 42.9% |
7.4% / 3.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 6.1 |
50.0% / 39.3% |
23.5% / 35.7% |
5.0 / 3.3 |
61 / 56 |
58.0% / 40.9% |
49.2% / 41.1% |
35.6% / 54.0% |
5.4 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
55.7% / 50.0% |
35.5 / 26.4 |
5 |
LA |
31 – 33 L |
1.0 |
60.0% / 83.3% |
13.3% / 4.2% |
0.0% / 8.7% |
12.2 / 13.0 |
53.1% / 40.6% |
18.8% / 15.6% |
5.9 / 4.9 |
47 / 56 |
44.2% / 56.9% |
55.3% / 58.9% |
66.5% / 49.1% |
7.9 / 8.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
68.1% / 57.1% |
26.6 / 33.7 |
6 |
@OAK |
27 – 3 W |
15.9 |
50.0% / 37.8% |
4.2% / 16.2% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
8.9 / 2.9 |
46.2% / 52.6% |
15.4% / 15.8% |
4.0 / 4.2 |
63 / 56 |
45.7% / 46.5% |
47.6% / 42.9% |
46.9% / 31.9% |
5.9 / 3.3 |
0.0% / 3.6% |
61.9% / 33.9% |
42.2 / 20.5 |
8 |
@DET |
28 – 14 W |
8.8 |
57.9% / 55.8% |
10.5% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
12.5 / 6.9 |
50.0% / 30.8% |
23.8% / 23.1% |
4.2 / 2.6 |
61 / 56 |
53.2% / 47.8% |
52.5% / 50.0% |
48.7% / 26.0% |
6.8 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 3.6% |
68.9% / 23.2% |
25.8 / 15.0 |
9 |
LAC |
17 – 25 L |
-5.4 |
39.0% / 42.9% |
9.8% / 7.1% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
4.9 / 7.7 |
62.5% / 50.0% |
21.9% / 31.8% |
4.8 / 7.3 |
73 / 50 |
52.7% / 51.2% |
49.3% / 46.0% |
30.3% / 69.9% |
4.9 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.8% / 44.0% |
25.1 / 21.2 |
10 |
@LA |
31 – 36 L |
-0.6 |
48.3% / 53.7% |
13.8% / 4.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.9 / 7.5 |
64.7% / 70.8% |
14.7% / 8.3% |
8.0 / 6.3 |
63 / 65 |
64.2% / 65.4% |
57.1% / 60.0% |
66.7% / 36.7% |
6.6 / 7.0 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
54.0% / 36.9% |
24.1 / 30.2 |