Game Analysis
Lean – Over (46.5) – New England (-6.5) vs TENNESSEE
Running back Sony Michel will likely return to the Patriots’ lineup this week but the Pats are on to something putting wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson in the backfield. Patterson is an excellent combination of size and speed weighing in at 212 pounds and ran 4.4-second 40-yard dash at the combine. Patterson boasts a 50% rush success rate, 6.5 percentage points above league-average, and is gaining 3.75 yards per rush after contact. The former Vikings first-round pick has never really impressed as a wide receiver, but New England should continue featuring him in the ground game.
Another member of the Patriots backfield, James White, leads all running backs with 81 targets this season, but he’ll likely be bottled up by Jayon Brown, whose 0.60 yards conceded per cover snap ranks 2nd among linebackers and has helped the Titans surrender just 4.9 yards per target to opposing running backs. I expect to see a heavy dose of Josh Gordon in this game with Rob Gronkowski’s status unknown and White likely a non-factor in the receiving game. Tennessee has allowed just 11 passing touchdowns (4th-fewest), but 7 of them have been conceded by Malcolm Butler, the most among all cornerbacks. Tom Brady targeted Gordon 10 times last week and I expect he’ll be featured in the offensive game plan again on Sunday lining up across from the former Patriot cornerback.
On the surface, it looks like Tennessee’s offense improved coming out of their bye week, scoring 28 points against a solid Cowboys defense on Monday night. However, the Titans only gained 4.9 yards per play and were fortunate to convert 11 of their 14 third downs. Dion Lewis had 122 yards from scrimmage, but Bill Belichick’s defense is designed to take away the opponent’s best option, and Tennessee’s offense doesn’t have any other real weapons.
Our model sees no value in the side but we’ll lean Over the total since our model pegs the fair total at 48.3 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
39.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.6%
48.5%
-
Sack Rate
3.9%
3.8%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.5%
24.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.4%
35.4%
-
NYPP
7.3
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.0
24.3
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
17.6%
20.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.5%
45.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.4%
44.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
67.0
64.2
-
Early Down Succ
54.6%
46.2%
-
Succ Rate
51.3%
47.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.0%
38.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.9
28.2
-
Run Ratio
44.3%
37.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
30.0
-
Game Control
4.7
-4.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
29.6
33.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.1%
50.7%
-
Sack Rate
12.0%
6.7%
-
Int Rate
2.9%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.6%
20.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
28.5%
34.9%
-
NYPP
5.8
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.6
27.6
-
RB YPR
3.4
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
23.2%
19.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.2%
44.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.7%
37.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
57.1
60.6
-
Early Down Succ
43.9%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
44.7%
47.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
31.8%
38.2%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
32.4
31.1
-
Run Ratio
48.7%
46.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.4
29.6
-
Game Control
-2.7
2.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
HOU |
27 – 20 W |
10.6 |
48.8% /
29.7% |
4.9% /
8.1% |
2.6% /
2.9% |
6.5 /
4.3 |
38.7% /
45.7% |
9.7% /
25.7% |
3.9 /
4.8 |
72 /
72 |
47.4% /
43.1% |
44.4% /
37.5% |
38.0% /
37.4% |
5.4 /
4.5 |
2.8% /
1.4% |
43.1% /
48.6% |
25.4 /
35.4 |
| 2 |
@JAC |
20 – 31 L |
-13.1 |
48.6% /
57.8% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
5.9 /
8.4 |
36.0% /
36.0% |
12.0% /
16.0% |
3.3 /
4.2 |
62 /
70 |
47.9% /
46.3% |
43.5% /
50.0% |
38.3% /
42.7% |
4.9 /
6.9 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
40.3% /
35.7% |
30.1 /
25.7 |
| 3 |
@DET |
10 – 26 L |
-8.1 |
42.9% /
61.1% |
7.1% /
2.8% |
3.8% /
2.9% |
4.3 /
7.1 |
57.9% /
45.5% |
21.1% /
21.2% |
4.7 /
4.8 |
47 /
69 |
56.8% /
54.5% |
48.9% /
53.6% |
19.1% /
36.7% |
4.4 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.4% /
47.8% |
26.4 /
30.2 |
| 4 |
MIA |
38 – 7 W |
19.6 |
42.9% /
33.3% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
5.7% /
4.0% |
7.8 /
4.3 |
34.9% /
11.1% |
18.6% /
38.9% |
4.1 /
3.1 |
78 /
45 |
34.5% /
21.2% |
38.5% /
24.4% |
45.1% /
20.9% |
5.8 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
2.2% |
55.1% /
40.0% |
32.0 /
29.5 |
| 5 |
IND |
38 – 24 W |
12.6 |
88.2% /
76.9% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.9% /
5.3% |
10.0 /
9.1 |
44.0% /
47.6% |
20.0% /
4.8% |
4.0 /
4.0 |
59 /
60 |
65.5% /
49.2% |
69.5% /
66.7% |
26.8% /
28.7% |
7.5 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
42.4% /
35.0% |
35.5 /
27.9 |
| 6 |
KC |
43 – 40 W |
5.3 |
48.6% /
50.0% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
8.8 /
9.8 |
64.1% /
70.6% |
15.4% /
17.6% |
4.5 /
5.5 |
76 /
53 |
60.0% /
59.5% |
56.6% /
56.6% |
44.9% /
55.4% |
6.6 /
8.4 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
51.3% /
32.1% |
30.6 /
39.9 |
| 7 |
@CHI |
38 – 31 W |
3.8 |
62.2% /
43.1% |
2.7% /
3.9% |
2.8% /
4.1% |
7.4 /
6.3 |
63.0% /
52.0% |
22.2% /
12.0% |
4.0 /
5.4 |
64 /
76 |
66.0% /
44.1% |
62.5% /
46.1% |
29.7% /
44.6% |
6.0 /
6.0 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
42.2% /
32.9% |
25.6 /
32.9 |
| 8 |
@BUF |
25 – 6 W |
6.6 |
54.3% /
36.4% |
4.3% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.8 /
6.5 |
33.3% /
40.0% |
18.5% /
35.0% |
2.9 /
2.4 |
73 /
64 |
52.7% /
43.5% |
46.6% /
37.5% |
35.7% /
46.4% |
5.3 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
37.0% /
31.3% |
28.2 /
29.3 |
| 9 |
GB |
31 – 17 W |
5.1 |
55.3% /
47.7% |
5.3% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
5.7 |
47.1% /
60.0% |
20.6% /
12.0% |
3.7 /
4.7 |
72 /
69 |
61.1% /
54.5% |
51.4% /
52.2% |
55.1% /
36.4% |
6.1 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
47.2% /
36.2% |
29.2 /
19.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@MIA |
17 – 27 L |
-3.5 |
36.8% /
55.2% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
7.9% /
7.1% |
5.8 /
7.7 |
44.8% /
53.3% |
17.2% /
26.7% |
4.0 /
4.1 |
67 /
59 |
41.2% /
66.7% |
40.3% /
54.2% |
17.0% /
44.3% |
5.0 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.3% /
50.8% |
29.2 /
35.5 |
| 2 |
HOU |
20 – 17 W |
6.4 |
39.1% /
48.6% |
4.3% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
8.0 /
8.3 |
35.3% /
42.3% |
14.7% /
11.5% |
2.9 /
5.7 |
57 /
61 |
35.0% /
46.0% |
36.8% /
45.9% |
27.9% /
53.1% |
5.0 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
59.6% /
42.6% |
23.2 /
26.6 |
| 3 |
@JAC |
9 – 6 W |
1.5 |
45.8% /
37.8% |
12.5% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
3.9 |
42.9% /
52.6% |
25.7% /
15.8% |
4.3 /
4.6 |
59 /
56 |
47.7% /
46.3% |
44.1% /
42.9% |
34.3% /
10.3% |
3.9 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
59.3% /
33.9% |
28.2 /
23.3 |
| 4 |
PHI |
26 – 23 W |
-2.6 |
47.8% /
46.3% |
6.5% /
7.4% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
5.8 |
39.1% /
36.4% |
34.8% /
13.6% |
3.1 /
5.3 |
69 /
76 |
47.9% /
45.9% |
44.9% /
43.4% |
38.9% /
41.0% |
5.8 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
33.3% /
28.9% |
24.4 /
28.0 |
| 5 |
@BUF |
12 – 13 L |
-2.6 |
81.3% /
63.6% |
12.5% /
9.1% |
7.1% /
10.0% |
7.6 /
7.2 |
56.0% /
46.5% |
16.0% /
20.9% |
4.0 /
3.3 |
41 /
54 |
51.2% /
43.8% |
65.9% /
50.0% |
29.0% /
18.8% |
5.4 /
4.1 |
4.9% /
0.0% |
61.0% /
79.6% |
30.2 /
34.8 |
| 6 |
BAL |
0 – 21 L |
-13.2 |
26.9% /
45.9% |
42.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
2.0 /
6.4 |
28.6% /
44.4% |
35.7% /
27.8% |
3.9 /
3.4 |
40 /
73 |
33.3% /
37.7% |
27.5% /
45.2% |
42.5% /
44.5% |
2.7 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.0% /
49.3% |
21.9 /
29.9 |
| 7 |
@LAC |
19 – 20 L |
-4.9 |
58.8% /
57.1% |
5.9% /
7.1% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
10.6 |
48.5% /
35.3% |
18.2% /
17.6% |
5.0 /
2.8 |
67 /
45 |
51.0% /
52.9% |
53.7% /
48.9% |
33.1% /
55.4% |
5.8 /
7.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
37.8% |
27.5 /
29.0 |
New England Patriots
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Tennessee Titans