Game Analysis
Lean – PITTSBURGH (-3.5) over Carolina
The market has moved 2.5 points from the advanced line of Pittsburgh -6 despite the Steelers picking up an impressive win in Baltimore last week. Pittsburgh’s offensive line ranks 1st in pass blocking efficiency and Ben Roethlisberger should have plenty of time to find his receivers as the Panthers sack rate is a pedestrian 6.6% (19th). Antonio Brown will have one of his easiest matchups all season lining up across from James Bradberry, whose 1.22 yards allowed per cover snap ranks 56th. So, I suspect the Steelers should have good success through the air in this game.
On the other side of the ball, Christian McCaffrey leads the Panthers in targets but ranks just 20th among running backs with 1.52 yards per route run and he’ll likely have a tough night catching the ball out of the backfield. The Steelers have conceded a league-low 186 receiving yards to opposing running backs this season, so they’re well-equipped to take away a big part of what Carolina likes to do on offense. Pittsburgh’s defensive front generates pressure on 35% of passing plays (5th) and Cam Newton may have to rely on his feet to move the chains. Newton has added 14.7 points on the ground this season, which ranks 2nd among quarterbacks, and the Steelers may actually be hurt some because of the pressure they put on Newton if he’s able to escape and pick up chunks of yards with his feet.
Our model favors the Steelers by 4.8 points with a predicted total of 51.2 and Carolina’s recent success is actually a negative, as teams that have won and covered the spread 3 weeks in a row are just 77-136-5 ATS on the road against winning teams as long as they’re not a dog of more than 7 points. I’ll lean with Pittsburgh at -4 or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.5
38.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
55.0%
51.7%
-
Sack Rate
4.8%
6.8%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
3.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.7%
21.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.1%
39.1%
-
NYPP
7.2
7.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.6
22.0
-
RB YPR
4.8
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
19.5%
23.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.5%
45.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
56.8%
55.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.1
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
62.1
60.0
-
Early Down Succ
54.6%
49.6%
-
Succ Rate
50.7%
48.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.3%
43.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
29.8
-
Run Ratio
47.6%
36.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.4
25.3
-
Game Control
2.5
-2.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
43.3
41.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.3%
46.0%
-
Sack Rate
3.1%
7.8%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.0%
21.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.4%
45.6%
-
NYPP
7.7
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.9
23.0
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
20.1%
26.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.8%
43.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.6%
47.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
68.1
64.5
-
Early Down Succ
49.9%
46.3%
-
Succ Rate
49.1%
45.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.3%
45.1%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
27.5
-
Run Ratio
37.1%
35.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.3
29.2
-
Game Control
2.6
-2.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
DAL |
16 – 8 W |
6.7 |
50.0% /
37.1% |
10.7% /
17.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
3.9 |
44.7% /
26.1% |
21.1% /
17.4% |
3.9 /
4.1 |
66 /
58 |
58.7% /
38.6% |
47.0% /
32.8% |
28.7% /
22.7% |
4.5 /
4.0 |
1.5% /
1.7% |
57.6% /
39.7% |
38.1 /
21.4 |
| 2 |
@ATL |
24 – 31 L |
-5.0 |
53.2% /
67.9% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
2.2% /
3.6% |
6.8 /
9.7 |
66.7% /
50.0% |
11.1% /
31.3% |
6.7 /
5.3 |
65 /
60 |
58.5% /
59.2% |
56.9% /
58.3% |
44.4% /
55.9% |
6.8 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
27.7% /
53.3% |
19.5 /
26.2 |
| 3 |
CIN |
31 – 21 W |
4.5 |
40.0% /
53.2% |
4.0% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
8.9% |
5.9 /
7.0 |
47.6% /
53.8% |
21.4% /
23.1% |
5.5 /
5.1 |
67 /
60 |
46.2% /
56.0% |
44.8% /
53.3% |
54.8% /
58.1% |
5.6 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
62.7% /
21.7% |
30.5 /
23.5 |
| 5 |
NYG |
33 – 31 W |
5.4 |
76.2% /
75.0% |
4.8% /
4.2% |
10.0% /
8.7% |
11.0 /
15.9 |
40.6% /
25.0% |
28.1% /
43.8% |
3.7 /
3.1 |
53 /
40 |
47.1% /
46.7% |
54.7% /
55.0% |
52.7% /
59.3% |
6.6 /
10.8 |
0.0% /
2.5% |
60.4% /
40.0% |
28.5 /
30.5 |
| 6 |
@WAS |
17 – 23 L |
-9.4 |
53.7% /
35.9% |
2.4% /
7.7% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
4.0 |
47.4% /
51.7% |
26.3% /
10.3% |
4.3 /
4.6 |
60 /
68 |
58.3% /
43.8% |
51.7% /
42.6% |
25.9% /
36.3% |
5.9 /
4.3 |
3.3% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
42.6% |
20.3 /
33.7 |
| 7 |
@PHI |
21 – 17 W |
-6.8 |
51.2% /
51.2% |
4.9% /
9.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
6.9 |
61.1% /
54.2% |
16.7% /
25.0% |
6.8 /
2.4 |
59 /
65 |
57.8% /
57.1% |
54.2% /
52.3% |
50.0% /
37.7% |
6.3 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
30.5% /
36.9% |
26.3 /
19.8 |
| 8 |
BAL |
36 – 21 W |
10.2 |
60.0% /
45.7% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
7.7 /
4.9 |
31.4% /
77.8% |
20.0% /
16.7% |
4.5 /
5.6 |
65 /
64 |
47.9% /
56.0% |
44.6% /
54.7% |
26.3% /
26.2% |
6.0 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
53.8% /
28.1% |
37.5 /
23.0 |
| 9 |
TB |
42 – 28 W |
14.2 |
55.6% /
47.7% |
7.4% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
8.4 /
5.0 |
48.6% /
23.8% |
11.4% /
23.8% |
5.2 /
3.9 |
62 /
65 |
62.2% /
39.2% |
51.6% /
40.0% |
56.0% /
49.5% |
6.6 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
56.5% /
32.3% |
34.8 /
24.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CLE |
21 – 21 T |
6.0 |
40.0% /
21.7% |
8.9% /
15.2% |
7.3% /
2.6% |
7.0 /
3.3 |
44.4% /
39.5% |
19.4% /
34.2% |
4.4 /
4.7 |
81 /
84 |
42.2% /
30.8% |
42.0% /
29.8% |
48.4% /
64.5% |
5.8 /
3.9 |
3.7% /
0.0% |
44.4% /
45.2% |
23.9 /
34.4 |
| 2 |
KC |
37 – 42 L |
-9.7 |
50.8% /
69.0% |
1.6% /
3.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.2 /
11.1 |
38.5% /
44.4% |
23.1% /
14.8% |
2.5 /
4.8 |
74 /
56 |
51.7% /
63.8% |
48.6% /
57.1% |
35.2% /
56.1% |
6.4 /
8.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
17.6% /
48.2% |
21.8 /
30.3 |
| 3 |
@TB |
30 – 27 W |
9.7 |
51.2% /
45.3% |
7.3% /
5.7% |
2.6% /
6.0% |
8.2 /
7.4 |
36.0% /
47.1% |
28.0% /
17.6% |
3.2 /
3.8 |
66 /
70 |
54.0% /
48.3% |
45.5% /
45.7% |
45.4% /
43.6% |
6.3 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
37.9% /
24.3% |
28.0 /
25.2 |
| 4 |
BAL |
14 – 26 L |
-6.3 |
47.9% /
47.7% |
2.1% /
4.5% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
8.1 |
16.7% /
48.5% |
25.0% /
9.1% |
1.7 /
3.0 |
60 /
77 |
50.0% /
51.9% |
41.7% /
48.1% |
42.1% /
32.7% |
4.8 /
5.9 |
1.7% /
1.3% |
20.0% /
42.9% |
21.2 /
36.8 |
| 5 |
ATL |
41 – 17 W |
8.9 |
84.2% /
56.8% |
0.0% /
16.2% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
13.2 /
7.1 |
50.0% /
36.8% |
15.6% /
31.6% |
4.1 /
3.3 |
51 /
56 |
51.1% /
39.6% |
62.7% /
50.0% |
39.3% /
36.1% |
7.5 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
62.7% /
33.9% |
36.1 /
20.3 |
| 6 |
@CIN |
28 – 21 W |
0.7 |
50.0% /
53.3% |
0.0% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
4.7 |
40.9% /
46.2% |
22.7% /
30.8% |
5.1 /
4.8 |
68 /
58 |
46.2% /
52.2% |
47.1% /
51.7% |
60.2% /
25.1% |
7.1 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.4% /
22.4% |
19.8 /
30.7 |
| 8 |
CLE |
33 – 18 W |
5.4 |
51.4% /
36.8% |
2.7% /
5.3% |
2.8% /
2.8% |
6.8 /
4.3 |
59.4% /
38.1% |
12.5% /
38.1% |
5.3 /
3.5 |
69 /
59 |
58.5% /
40.0% |
55.1% /
37.3% |
39.8% /
55.3% |
6.1 /
4.0 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
46.4% /
35.6% |
27.8 /
30.2 |
| 9 |
@BAL |
23 – 16 W |
6.1 |
51.0% /
37.5% |
2.0% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
5.2 |
48.1% /
50.0% |
14.8% /
37.5% |
4.2 /
3.8 |
76 /
56 |
45.8% /
44.2% |
50.0% /
41.1% |
27.8% /
47.8% |
5.2 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.5% /
28.6% |
23.8 /
26.0 |
Carolina Panthers
@ 
Pittsburgh Steelers