Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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LA Chargers (-1) at CLEVELAND

All 5 of Cleveland’s games this season have been decided by 4 points or less and another close game is expected this week. The Browns have actually played 3 overtime games this season and they’ve had the spread covered at the end of regulation in all 5 of their games. Cleveland may not be underrated anymore, as our ratings favor the Chargers by 1.8 points in this game. Let’s take a look at the match-ups.

Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers is throwing for 8.1 yards per pass play (4th) and he’s getting it done with his running backs, Austin Ekler and Melvin Gordon, who both rank in the top 5 in yards per route run. Ekler and Gordon are the top pass-catching backfield tandem in the league combining for 1.4 yards per route above the league average. However, Cleveland’s Joe Schobert leads all linebackers by a significant margin surrendering just 0.26 yards per cover snap this season and he may be able to slow down the Los Angeles duo.

Historically, Rivers is one of the better quarterbacks facing pressure in the league, which may come into play as both his starting tackles are game-time decisions. Rivers is gaining 7.1 yards per pass play under pressure this season with 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Additionally, Rivers has only taken a sack on 9.4% of dropbacks when he faces pressure, second-best in the league.

Cleveland’s offense is certainly more exciting since Baker Mayfield took over for ineffective veteran Tyrod Taylor and Mayfield’s solid 6.8 yards per pass play should be even better. Mayfield has suffered the highest drop rate (10.3%) of any quarterback in the NFL this season and I think he’s been the most impressive of the rookie quarterbacks so far this season. Mayfield will go from facing the best pass defense in our metrics last week (Baltimore) to a Chargers pass defense rated 25th and still missing pass-rusher Joey Bosa. Mayfield should perform well but our model doesn’t show enough value to play either side in this game.

Team Stats
Game Log

Chargers
Browns

LAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.2 33.2
Succ Pass Plays 57.5% 52.7%
Sack Rate 4.4% 6.8%
Int Rate 0.9% 3.8%
Deep Pass Rate 17.3% 20.8%
Big Pass Yards 41.9% 61.3%
NYPP 8.7 8.3

Rush

Rush Plays 26.6 24.0
RB YPR 4.8 3.8
Stuff Rate 26.4% 24.0%
Succ Rush Plays 43.0% 55.1%
Big Rush Yards 60.5% 32.5%
Yards Per Rush 4.7 3.8

Game

All Snaps 61.8 57.2
Early Down Succ 51.6% 53.7%
Succ Rate 49.1% 54.0%
Big Yards Rate 48.6% 55.3%
Yards Per Play 6.6 6.5
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.4 30.2
Run Ratio 43.8% 41.1%
Starting Field Pos 32.0 24.5
Game Control 0.6 -0.6

Points 27.4 26.0

CLE

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.4 41.4
Succ Pass Plays 41.2% 54.7%
Sack Rate 11.2% 6.9%
Int Rate 3.0% 4.1%
Deep Pass Rate 24.3% 16.3%
Big Pass Yards 49.3% 30.6%
NYPP 6.4 6.8

Rush

Rush Plays 32.0 29.0
RB YPR 4.0 4.0
Stuff Rate 27.6% 31.3%
Succ Rush Plays 41.2% 42.7%
Big Rush Yards 54.2% 49.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.5 4.0

Game

All Snaps 70.4 70.4
Early Down Succ 40.9% 49.0%
Succ Rate 41.1% 50.2%
Big Yards Rate 51.1% 36.2%
Yards Per Play 5.5 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 2.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.1 29.1
Run Ratio 45.6% 41.7%
Starting Field Pos 28.4 29.7
Game Control -1.2 1.2

Points 22.8 22.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	KC	28 – 38 L	-9.6	55.8% / 46.4%	1.9% / 3.6%	2.0% / 0.0%	8.0 / 9.1	59.1% / 59.3%	18.2% / 25.9%	5.6 / 3.9	74 / 55	61.3% / 55.6%	56.8% / 52.7%	45.1% / 66.0%	7.3 / 6.6	1.4% / 0.0%	29.7% / 49.1%	20.1 / 29.1
2	@BUF	31 – 20 W	14.5	65.5% / 36.8%	6.9% / 13.2%	0.0% / 6.1%	8.3 / 5.5	33.3% / 54.5%	40.7% / 31.8%	4.1 / 3.8	56 / 60	55.6% / 45.7%	50.0% / 43.3%	44.0% / 59.0%	6.3 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	48.2% / 36.7%	36.5 / 26.7
3	@LA	23 – 35 L	-9.0	40.6% / 59.5%	6.3% / 2.7%	0.0% / 2.8%	6.7 / 9.5	60.0% / 62.2%	30.0% / 10.8%	7.1 / 4.7	52 / 74	45.9% / 62.7%	48.1% / 60.8%	62.9% / 45.5%	6.8 / 7.1	3.8% / 1.4%	38.5% / 50.0%	26.6 / 22.8
4	SF	29 – 27 W	-2.8	47.5% / 52.6%	2.5% / 2.6%	2.6% / 5.4%	6.1 / 7.6	35.5% / 38.1%	12.9% / 28.6%	4.2 / 3.6	71 / 59	50.0% / 48.9%	42.3% / 47.5%	47.4% / 46.4%	5.2 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	43.7% / 35.6%	41.3 / 22.5
5	OAK	26 – 10 W	9.9	78.3% / 68.0%	4.3% / 12.0%	0.0% / 4.5%	14.5 / 9.9	27.3% / 61.5%	30.3% / 23.1%	2.5 / 3.2	56 / 38	45.5% / 55.6%	48.2% / 65.8%	43.4% / 59.5%	7.4 / 7.6	0.0% / 2.6%	58.9% / 34.2%	35.3 / 21.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PIT	21 – 21 T	-6.0	21.7% / 40.0%	15.2% / 8.9%	2.6% / 7.3%	3.3 / 7.0	39.5% / 44.4%	34.2% / 19.4%	4.7 / 4.4	84 / 81	30.8% / 42.2%	29.8% / 42.0%	64.5% / 48.4%	3.9 / 5.8	0.0% / 3.7%	45.2% / 44.4%	34.4 / 23.9
2	@NO	18 – 21 L	2.8	48.5% / 63.2%	9.1% / 7.9%	3.3% / 0.0%	7.1 / 5.6	33.3% / 37.5%	14.8% / 25.0%	3.4 / 2.6	60 / 62	43.5% / 60.4%	41.7% / 53.2%	43.4% / 30.8%	5.5 / 4.5	0.0% / 3.2%	45.0% / 38.7%	28.4 / 35.0
3	NYJ	21 – 17 W	-5.4	36.6% / 36.4%	9.8% / 6.1%	0.0% / 6.5%	4.6 / 4.9	42.9% / 50.0%	31.4% / 43.3%	3.9 / 3.6	76 / 63	42.6% / 42.6%	39.5% / 42.9%	32.3% / 22.4%	4.3 / 4.3	0.0% / 1.6%	46.1% / 47.6%	33.3 / 23.2
4	@OAK	42 – 45 L	2.1	37.2% / 53.3%	4.7% / 5.0%	4.9% / 3.5%	6.5 / 7.1	43.8% / 33.3%	21.9% / 36.7%	6.5 / 4.7	75 / 90	42.1% / 52.1%	40.0% / 46.7%	57.8% / 44.2%	6.5 / 6.3	2.7% / 0.0%	42.7% / 33.3%	26.1 / 34.9
5	BAL	12 – 9 W	0.7	62.1% / 80.6%	17.2% / 6.5%	4.2% / 3.4%	10.5 / 9.5	46.4% / 48.0%	35.7% / 32.0%	4.0 / 4.6	57 / 56	45.5% / 47.8%	54.4% / 66.1%	57.7% / 35.1%	7.3 / 7.3	0.0% / 1.8%	49.1% / 44.6%	19.7 / 31.4

Los Angeles Chargers @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Oct 14

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis