Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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NEW ORLEANS (-9) vs Cleveland

The Saints knocked a lot of people out of their survivor pools last week (so did Cleveland) but New Orleans’ offense was excellent, grading 3rd despite the embarrassing home loss. Now the Saints will face a Browns defense coming off a game where they allowed 6.0 yards per play but were fortunate to force 5 turnovers. Cleveland’s rookie first-round cornerback Denzel Ward was excellent in his debut going up against Antonio Brown for much of the game and collecting 2 interceptions, and he faces another tough challenge this week lining up across from Michael Thomas, who leads the NFL with 180 receiving yards. The status of the Browns other starting cornerback, E.J. Gaines, is up in the air. Gaines missed week 1 but he could take some of the pressure off Ward after surrendering just 0.82 yards per cover snap in 2017 (11th).

The Saints starting cornerbacks, Ken Crawley and Marshon Lattimore, were exposed in single coverage all day against the Bucs last week, ranking last and second-to-last in yards allowed per cover snap among 78 qualifying cornerbacks in week 1. Both Crawley and Lattimore were much better last season and it seems the game against the Buccaneers was more of an anomaly than the new norm. First-round defensive end Marcus Davenport will line up across from Cleveland’s left tackle Desmond Harrison after getting abused last week in his NFL debut – surrendering 6 quarterback pressures. This could be a potential breakout game for Davenport against a fellow rookie in Harrison.

New Orleans’s defense will improve and their offense will continue to put up points at home in the dome. I’ll be going with the Saints in my survivor pool this week but our model doesn’t show any value as far as the spread is concerned.

Team Stats
Game Log

Browns
Saints

CLE

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.5 41.5
Succ Pass Plays 35.1% 51.6%
Sack Rate 12.2% 8.4%
Int Rate 2.9% 3.7%
Deep Pass Rate 25.4% 19.8%
Big Pass Yards 61.7% 40.2%
NYPP 5.2 6.3

Rush

Rush Plays 32.5 30.0
RB YPR 3.1 3.4
Stuff Rate 24.5% 22.2%
Succ Rush Plays 36.4% 41.0%
Big Rush Yards 42.0% 38.0%
Yards Per Rush 4.1 3.5

Game

All Snaps 72.0 71.5
Early Down Succ 37.1% 51.3%
Succ Rate 35.7% 47.6%
Big Yards Rate 54.0% 39.6%
Yards Per Play 4.7 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 3.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.3 28.7
Run Ratio 45.1% 41.6%
Starting Field Pos 31.4 29.4
Game Control -1.6 1.6

Points 19.5 21.0

NOR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 42.0 30.5
Succ Pass Plays 68.5% 56.4%
Sack Rate 5.0% 4.5%
Int Rate 0.0% 1.7%
Deep Pass Rate 18.0% 26.1%
Big Pass Yards 34.6% 59.4%
NYPP 7.5 11.0

Rush

Rush Plays 18.5 32.0
RB YPR 3.0 2.8
Stuff Rate 24.0% 16.9%
Succ Rush Plays 53.4% 38.3%
Big Rush Yards 25.9% 33.7%
Yards Per Rush 3.0 3.3

Game

All Snaps 60.5 62.5
Early Down Succ 69.0% 50.0%
Succ Rate 63.1% 47.0%
Big Yards Rate 33.6% 53.0%
Yards Per Play 6.3 6.8
Fumble Lost Rate 3.3% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.0 28.5
Run Ratio 30.4% 51.0%
Starting Field Pos 30.5 27.4
Game Control -5.1 5.1

Points 30.5 33.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PIT	21 – 21 T	-6.0	21.7% / 40.0%	15.2% / 8.9%	2.6% / 7.3%	3.3 / 7.0	39.5% / 44.4%	34.2% / 19.4%	4.7 / 4.4	84 / 81	30.8% / 42.2%	29.8% / 42.0%	64.5% / 48.4%	3.9 / 5.8	0.0% / 3.7%	45.2% / 44.4%	34.4 / 23.9
2	@NO	18 – 21 L	2.8	48.5% / 63.2%	9.1% / 7.9%	3.3% / 0.0%	7.1 / 5.6	33.3% / 37.5%	14.8% / 25.0%	3.4 / 2.6	60 / 62	43.5% / 60.4%	41.7% / 53.2%	43.4% / 30.8%	5.5 / 4.5	0.0% / 3.2%	45.0% / 38.7%	28.4 / 35.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	TB	40 – 48 L	-7.4	73.9% / 64.3%	2.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 14.9	69.2% / 43.2%	23.1% / 18.9%	3.3 / 3.1	59 / 65	77.6% / 56.5%	72.9% / 52.3%	36.4% / 62.7%	8.1 / 8.2	3.4% / 0.0%	22.0% / 56.9%	25.9 / 26.4
2	CLE	21 – 18 W	-2.8	63.2% / 48.5%	7.9% / 9.1%	0.0% / 3.3%	5.6 / 7.1	37.5% / 33.3%	25.0% / 14.8%	2.6 / 3.4	62 / 60	60.4% / 43.5%	53.2% / 41.7%	30.8% / 43.4%	4.5 / 5.5	3.2% / 0.0%	38.7% / 45.0%	35.0 / 28.4

Cleveland Browns @

New Orleans Saints

Sun, Sep 16

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis